Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Carrillo-Rodríguez, Jesús
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Toca-Torres, Claudia Eugenia
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: spa
Título da fonte: Opinião Pública (Online)
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/article/view/8671959
Resumo: In Colombia, electoral polls have been losing credibility, so rigorous monitoring and analysis of social networks during an electoral campaign could be a way of predicting election results. Which indicators of public opinion on social networks determine a candidate´s triumph? The research that comprises this article traced on Twitter some key theoretical components of public opinion that could accurately anticipate the winner during the electoral process in Bogotá. Using ATLAS.Ti, our research efforts coded posts on candidates’ pages to generate data for our analysis. It was possible to identify seven (7) public opinion indicators that in an aggregated way coincide with electoral results. Likes on Facebook or Twitter were most effective in anticipating the candidate elect. The originality of this research is based on its methodology for analyzing content posted on Twitter and the innovation of including feelings and moods as important aspects of attitudes, the deepest component of public opinion. Our research results validate public opinion theory and its inner components. Survey agencies must adjust their methods to preserve credibility.
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spelling Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital cityLa opinión pública en twitter. Análisis durante la contienda electoral en la capital colombianaA opinião pública em twitter. Análise durante a campanha eleitoral na capital colombianaOpinião públicaRedes sociaisEleições de BogotáSondagensPublic opinionSocial networksBogota's mayor electionElectoral pollsOpinión públicaRedes socialesElecciones BogotáEncuestas de opiniónIn Colombia, electoral polls have been losing credibility, so rigorous monitoring and analysis of social networks during an electoral campaign could be a way of predicting election results. Which indicators of public opinion on social networks determine a candidate´s triumph? The research that comprises this article traced on Twitter some key theoretical components of public opinion that could accurately anticipate the winner during the electoral process in Bogotá. Using ATLAS.Ti, our research efforts coded posts on candidates’ pages to generate data for our analysis. It was possible to identify seven (7) public opinion indicators that in an aggregated way coincide with electoral results. Likes on Facebook or Twitter were most effective in anticipating the candidate elect. The originality of this research is based on its methodology for analyzing content posted on Twitter and the innovation of including feelings and moods as important aspects of attitudes, the deepest component of public opinion. Our research results validate public opinion theory and its inner components. Survey agencies must adjust their methods to preserve credibility.En Colombia las encuestas electorales han perdido credibilidad, de modo que el análisis riguroso de las redes durante una campaña posibilitaría anticipar un resultado electoral. Pero ¿Qué elementos de la opinión pública en redes determinarían el triunfo del candidato? El artículo tiene como objetivo rastrear en Twitter los componentes teóricos de la opinión pública en la campaña para la alcaldía de Bogotá (2019), que den claves sobre el ganador. Se extrajeron y codificaron posteos en ATLAS.ti generando información para el análisis, siendo posible identificar aquellos aspectos de los componentes de la opinión pública (siete) que, de forma agregada, sean coincidentes con los resultados finales de la elección. Los likes de Facebook o Twitter resultaron más efectivos para anticipar al triunfador que las mismas encuestas y sondeos de las agencias de comunicación. La originalidad descansa en la metodología propuesta para el análisis de los contenidos y en la consideración de los sentimientos y estados de ánimo como parte importante de las actitudes, el componente más profundo de la opinión pública. Con los resultados alcanzados, la teoría política de la opinión pública es validada al considerar todos sus componentes (incluso los más internos). A la par, el artículo revela que la práctica de las agencias encuestadoras deberá ajustarse so pena de perder toda credibilidad.Na Colômbia as sondagens eleitorais perderam credibilidade, de modo que a análise rigorosa das redes sociais, durante a campanha, deve fornecer a possibilidade de antecipar qualquer resultado das eleições. Mas quais elementos da opinião pública em redes determinaria o triunfo do candidato? O artigo recolhe na rede Twitter os componentes teóricos da opinião pública durante a campanha para prefeito de Bogotá, que puderam dar pistas sobre o nome do vencedor. Postagens e comentários foram extraídos para rotulá-los em ATLAS.ti e gerar as informações necessárias para a análise. Bem como as sondagens, as redes podem enganar, no entanto, os likes de qualquer rede (Facebook ou Twitter) teriam sido mais eficazes para antecipar o candidato vencedor. A originalidade reside na proposta de metodologia para a análise do conteúdo Twitter e levando em consideração os sentimentos e estados de espírito como uma parte importante das atitudes, o componente mais profundo da opinião pública. Com os resultados alcançados, a teoria política da opinião pública é validada considerando todos os seus componentes (mesmo os mais internos). Ao mesmo tempo, a prática das agências de votação terá de ser ajustada para não perder credibilidade.Universidade Estadual de Campinas2023-01-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionTextoTextoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/otherapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/article/view/8671959Opinião Pública; Vol. 28 No. 3 (2022): set./dez.; 787-827Opinião Pública; Vol. 28 Núm. 3 (2022): set./dez.; 787-827Opinião Pública; v. 28 n. 3 (2022): set./dez.; 787-8271807-0191reponame:Opinião Pública (Online)instname:Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)instacron:UNICAMPspahttps://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/article/view/8671959/30906Colombia; ContemporaryColombia; ContemporáneoColombia; ComtemporâneoCopyright (c) 2022 Opinião Públicahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCarrillo-Rodríguez, JesúsToca-Torres, Claudia Eugenia 2023-01-11T17:35:49Zoai:ojs.periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br:article/8671959Revistahttps://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/opPUBhttps://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/oaicesop@unicamp.br||racael@unicamp.br || rop@unicamp.br1807-01910104-6276opendoar:2023-01-11T17:35:49Opinião Pública (Online) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
La opinión pública en twitter. Análisis durante la contienda electoral en la capital colombiana
A opinião pública em twitter. Análise durante a campanha eleitoral na capital colombiana
title Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
spellingShingle Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
Carrillo-Rodríguez, Jesús
Opinião pública
Redes sociais
Eleições de Bogotá
Sondagens
Public opinion
Social networks
Bogota's mayor election
Electoral polls
Opinión pública
Redes sociales
Elecciones Bogotá
Encuestas de opinión
title_short Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
title_full Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
title_fullStr Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
title_full_unstemmed Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
title_sort Public opinion in twitter. Analysis during the electoral race in the Colombian capital city
author Carrillo-Rodríguez, Jesús
author_facet Carrillo-Rodríguez, Jesús
Toca-Torres, Claudia Eugenia
author_role author
author2 Toca-Torres, Claudia Eugenia
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Carrillo-Rodríguez, Jesús
Toca-Torres, Claudia Eugenia
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Opinião pública
Redes sociais
Eleições de Bogotá
Sondagens
Public opinion
Social networks
Bogota's mayor election
Electoral polls
Opinión pública
Redes sociales
Elecciones Bogotá
Encuestas de opinión
topic Opinião pública
Redes sociais
Eleições de Bogotá
Sondagens
Public opinion
Social networks
Bogota's mayor election
Electoral polls
Opinión pública
Redes sociales
Elecciones Bogotá
Encuestas de opinión
description In Colombia, electoral polls have been losing credibility, so rigorous monitoring and analysis of social networks during an electoral campaign could be a way of predicting election results. Which indicators of public opinion on social networks determine a candidate´s triumph? The research that comprises this article traced on Twitter some key theoretical components of public opinion that could accurately anticipate the winner during the electoral process in Bogotá. Using ATLAS.Ti, our research efforts coded posts on candidates’ pages to generate data for our analysis. It was possible to identify seven (7) public opinion indicators that in an aggregated way coincide with electoral results. Likes on Facebook or Twitter were most effective in anticipating the candidate elect. The originality of this research is based on its methodology for analyzing content posted on Twitter and the innovation of including feelings and moods as important aspects of attitudes, the deepest component of public opinion. Our research results validate public opinion theory and its inner components. Survey agencies must adjust their methods to preserve credibility.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-01-11
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Texto
Texto
info:eu-repo/semantics/other
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/article/view/8671959
url https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/article/view/8671959
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/article/view/8671959/30906
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2022 Opinião Pública
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2022 Opinião Pública
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Colombia; Contemporary
Colombia; Contemporáneo
Colombia; Comtemporâneo
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Estadual de Campinas
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Estadual de Campinas
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Opinião Pública; Vol. 28 No. 3 (2022): set./dez.; 787-827
Opinião Pública; Vol. 28 Núm. 3 (2022): set./dez.; 787-827
Opinião Pública; v. 28 n. 3 (2022): set./dez.; 787-827
1807-0191
reponame:Opinião Pública (Online)
instname:Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
instacron:UNICAMP
instname_str Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
instacron_str UNICAMP
institution UNICAMP
reponame_str Opinião Pública (Online)
collection Opinião Pública (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Opinião Pública (Online) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv cesop@unicamp.br||racael@unicamp.br || rop@unicamp.br
_version_ 1800217018495926272

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