Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Research, Society and Development |
Texto Completo: | https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9899 |
Resumo: | The characterization of climate change in a region allows determining planning actions for future agricultural activities. Therefore, the objective was to model the rainfall in 2017 for the Agreste Meridional of Pernambuco, Brazil, from probabilistic distributions. The quality of fit and adherence of different probability functions (Cos-Weibull, Weibull-Exponential, Kumaraswamy Weibull and Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson and Gumbel) were analyzed. To verify the adjustments, the criteria were determined the statisticians of AIC, BIC and HQIC, in addition to the tests of Anderson Darling (AD) and Cramér-von Misses (CVM). The study area consists of 71 municipalities distributed in six regions of Agreste Pernambucano and is inserted in the coverage area called "areas subject to drought", which has a drought period lower than the sertão. For the elaboration of this work, we used average annual rainfall data of 2017 of the 71 meteorological stations (municipalities), acquired from the Water and Climate Agency of Pernambucana (APAC) and the National Water Agency (ANA). The five probability functions resulted in suitable and good adjustments, except for Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson and Gumbel. However, the results indicated that the two-parameter Cos-Weibull distribution was more appropriately adjusted to the rainfall conditions of the six regions of Agreste Pernambucano, followed by the Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul and Kumwpoisson distributions. For the data in question, the probability function that presented the most accurate result to the rainfall conditions of the six regions of Agreste Pernambucano was that of Cos-Weibull with two parameters, followed by the Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul and, finally, Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson. |
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Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco Modelado de la distribución de frecuencia de la precipitación para el Agreste Meridional del Estado de PernambucoModelagem da distribuição de frequência da precipitação para o Agreste Meridional do Estado de PernambucoModelagemDistribuição de probabilidadePrecipitação.ModeladoDistribución de probabilidadePrecipitación.ModelingProbability distributionPrecipitation.The characterization of climate change in a region allows determining planning actions for future agricultural activities. Therefore, the objective was to model the rainfall in 2017 for the Agreste Meridional of Pernambuco, Brazil, from probabilistic distributions. The quality of fit and adherence of different probability functions (Cos-Weibull, Weibull-Exponential, Kumaraswamy Weibull and Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson and Gumbel) were analyzed. To verify the adjustments, the criteria were determined the statisticians of AIC, BIC and HQIC, in addition to the tests of Anderson Darling (AD) and Cramér-von Misses (CVM). The study area consists of 71 municipalities distributed in six regions of Agreste Pernambucano and is inserted in the coverage area called "areas subject to drought", which has a drought period lower than the sertão. For the elaboration of this work, we used average annual rainfall data of 2017 of the 71 meteorological stations (municipalities), acquired from the Water and Climate Agency of Pernambucana (APAC) and the National Water Agency (ANA). The five probability functions resulted in suitable and good adjustments, except for Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson and Gumbel. However, the results indicated that the two-parameter Cos-Weibull distribution was more appropriately adjusted to the rainfall conditions of the six regions of Agreste Pernambucano, followed by the Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul and Kumwpoisson distributions. For the data in question, the probability function that presented the most accurate result to the rainfall conditions of the six regions of Agreste Pernambucano was that of Cos-Weibull with two parameters, followed by the Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul and, finally, Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson.La caracterización del cambio climático de una región admite determinar acciones de planificación para actividades agrícolas futuras. Siendo así, se objetó modelar la precipitación pluviométrica del año 2017 para el Agreste Meridional de Pernambuco, Brasil, a partir de distribuciones probabilísticas. Se analizó la calidad del ajuste y adherencia de distintas funciones de probabilidad (Cos-Weibull, Weibull-Exponential, Kumaraswamy Weibull y Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson y Gumbel). Para verificar los ajustes, fueron determinados los criterios los estadísticos de la AIC, BIC y HQIC, además de las pruebas de Anderson Darling (AD) y Cramér-von Misses (CVM). El área de estudio está formada por 71 municipios distribuidos en seis mesorregiones del Agreste Pernambucano y está insertada en la zona de cobertura denominada "áreas sujetas a sequías", que presenta período de estiaje inferior al sertón. Para la elaboración de este trabajo, se utilizaron datos medios anuales de precipitación de 2017 de las 71 estaciones meteorológicas (municipios), adquiridos de la Agencia de Agua y Clima de Pernambucana (APAC) y de la Agencia Nacional de Agua (ANA). Las cinco funciones de probabilidad resultaron en adecuados y buenos ajustes, excepto Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson y Gumbel. Sin embargo, los resultados obtenidos indicaron que la distribución Cos-Weibull con dos parámetros fue ajustada más adecuadamente a las condiciones pluviométricas de las seis regiones del Agreste Pernambucano, seguidas por las distribuciones Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul y Kumwpoisson. Para los datos en cuestión, la función de probabilidad que presentó resultado más preciso a las condiciones pluviométricas de las seis regiones del Agreste Pernambucano, fue la de Cos-Weibull con dos parámetros, seguidas por las distribuciones Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul y, por último, la Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson.A caracterização de mudança climáticas de uma região admite determinar ações de planejamento para atividades agrícolas futuras. Sendo assim, objetivou-se modelar a precipitação pluviométrica do ano de 2017 para o Agreste Meridional de Pernambuco, Brasil, a partir de distribuições probabilísticas. Foram analisadas a qualidade do ajuste e aderência de distintas funções de probabilidade (Cos-Weibull, Weibull-Exponential, Kumaraswamy Weibull e Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson e Gumbel). Para verificar os ajustes, foram determinados os critérios os estatísticos da AIC, BIC e HQIC, além dos testes de Anderson Darling (AD) e Cramér-von Misses (CVM). A área de estudo é formada por 71 municípios distribuídos em seis microrregiões do Agreste Pernambucano e está inserida na área de cobertura denominada "áreas sujeitas a secas", que apresenta período de estiagem inferior ao sertão. Para a elaboração deste trabalho, foram utilizados dados médios anuais de precipitação de 2017 das 71 estações meteorológicas (municípios), adquiridos da Agência de Água e Clima de Pernambucana (APAC) e da Agência Nacional de Água (ANA). As cinco funções de probabilidade resultaram em adequados e bons ajustes, exceto Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson e Gumbel. Entretanto, os resultados obtidos indicaram que a distribuição Cos-Weibull com dois parâmetros foi mais adequadamente ajustada às condições pluviométricas das seis microrregiões do Agreste Pernambucano, seguidas pelas distribuições Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul e Kumwpoisson. Para os dados em questão, a função de probabilidade que apresentou resultado mais acurado às condições pluviométricas das seis microrregiões do Agreste Pernambucano, foi a de Cos-Weibull com dois parâmetros, seguidas pelas distribuições Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul, e por último a Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson.Research, Society and Development2020-11-22info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/989910.33448/rsd-v9i11.9899Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 11; e4839119899Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 11; e4839119899Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 11; e48391198992525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9899/9017Copyright (c) 2020 Antonio Ricardo Santos de Andrade; Luciano Souza; Edijailson Gonçalves da Silva; Emylle Kerolayne Palmeira de Andrade; Claudia Machado Costa; Maria Gorete dos Santos Silva; Jéssica Dayana de Souza Silva; Adiel Felipe da Silva Cruz; Wllias Mendonça dos Santos; Maria Emanuely da Silva Ferreirahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAndrade, Antonio Ricardo Santos deSouza, LucianoSilva, Edijailson Gonçalves daAndrade, Emylle Kerolayne Palmeira de Costa, Claudia MachadoSilva, Maria Gorete dos SantosSilva, Jéssica Dayana de SouzaCruz, Adiel Felipe da SilvaSantos, Wllias Mendonça dosFerreira, Maria Emanuely da Silva2020-12-10T23:37:57Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/9899Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:32:04.612304Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco Modelado de la distribución de frecuencia de la precipitación para el Agreste Meridional del Estado de Pernambuco Modelagem da distribuição de frequência da precipitação para o Agreste Meridional do Estado de Pernambuco |
title |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco |
spellingShingle |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco Andrade, Antonio Ricardo Santos de Modelagem Distribuição de probabilidade Precipitação. Modelado Distribución de probabilidade Precipitación. Modeling Probability distribution Precipitation. |
title_short |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco |
title_full |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco |
title_sort |
Modeling the frequency distribution of precipitation for Agreste Meridional in the State of Pernambuco |
author |
Andrade, Antonio Ricardo Santos de |
author_facet |
Andrade, Antonio Ricardo Santos de Souza, Luciano Silva, Edijailson Gonçalves da Andrade, Emylle Kerolayne Palmeira de Costa, Claudia Machado Silva, Maria Gorete dos Santos Silva, Jéssica Dayana de Souza Cruz, Adiel Felipe da Silva Santos, Wllias Mendonça dos Ferreira, Maria Emanuely da Silva |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Souza, Luciano Silva, Edijailson Gonçalves da Andrade, Emylle Kerolayne Palmeira de Costa, Claudia Machado Silva, Maria Gorete dos Santos Silva, Jéssica Dayana de Souza Cruz, Adiel Felipe da Silva Santos, Wllias Mendonça dos Ferreira, Maria Emanuely da Silva |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Andrade, Antonio Ricardo Santos de Souza, Luciano Silva, Edijailson Gonçalves da Andrade, Emylle Kerolayne Palmeira de Costa, Claudia Machado Silva, Maria Gorete dos Santos Silva, Jéssica Dayana de Souza Cruz, Adiel Felipe da Silva Santos, Wllias Mendonça dos Ferreira, Maria Emanuely da Silva |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelagem Distribuição de probabilidade Precipitação. Modelado Distribución de probabilidade Precipitación. Modeling Probability distribution Precipitation. |
topic |
Modelagem Distribuição de probabilidade Precipitação. Modelado Distribución de probabilidade Precipitación. Modeling Probability distribution Precipitation. |
description |
The characterization of climate change in a region allows determining planning actions for future agricultural activities. Therefore, the objective was to model the rainfall in 2017 for the Agreste Meridional of Pernambuco, Brazil, from probabilistic distributions. The quality of fit and adherence of different probability functions (Cos-Weibull, Weibull-Exponential, Kumaraswamy Weibull and Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson and Gumbel) were analyzed. To verify the adjustments, the criteria were determined the statisticians of AIC, BIC and HQIC, in addition to the tests of Anderson Darling (AD) and Cramér-von Misses (CVM). The study area consists of 71 municipalities distributed in six regions of Agreste Pernambucano and is inserted in the coverage area called "areas subject to drought", which has a drought period lower than the sertão. For the elaboration of this work, we used average annual rainfall data of 2017 of the 71 meteorological stations (municipalities), acquired from the Water and Climate Agency of Pernambucana (APAC) and the National Water Agency (ANA). The five probability functions resulted in suitable and good adjustments, except for Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson and Gumbel. However, the results indicated that the two-parameter Cos-Weibull distribution was more appropriately adjusted to the rainfall conditions of the six regions of Agreste Pernambucano, followed by the Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul and Kumwpoisson distributions. For the data in question, the probability function that presented the most accurate result to the rainfall conditions of the six regions of Agreste Pernambucano was that of Cos-Weibull with two parameters, followed by the Weibull-Exponential, Kumweibul and, finally, Kumaraswamy Weibull Poisson. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-11-22 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9899 10.33448/rsd-v9i11.9899 |
url |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9899 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.33448/rsd-v9i11.9899 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/9899/9017 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 11; e4839119899 Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 11; e4839119899 Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 11; e4839119899 2525-3409 reponame:Research, Society and Development instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) instacron:UNIFEI |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
instacron_str |
UNIFEI |
institution |
UNIFEI |
reponame_str |
Research, Society and Development |
collection |
Research, Society and Development |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
rsd.articles@gmail.com |
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1797052781882769408 |