Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Research, Society and Development |
Texto Completo: | https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/32397 |
Resumo: | The Paraíba State is inserted in a context of significant climatic variations, where in specific years, there is an abundance in the volume of water in the reservoirs. In others, the population suffers from the scarcity of this resource. In this sense, through the use of the technique of time series analysis, the present work analyzed the behavior of the volumetric level of the two main reservoirs of Paraíba, Coremas and Mãe D'água, located in the high backlands of Paraíba. The analyzed data were obtained from the Executive Agency for Water Management (AESA) site and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) corresponding to monthly volumetric data from the dams as mentioned above and measurements of temperatures of anomalies in the ocean, respectively, from January 2013 to December 2021. For the analysis of the time series, the R 4.1.2 software was used, with the "forecast" package, making it possible to find and validate the best mathematical models to describe the behavior of the series of each weir, as well as make predictions for the possible behavior of the series until July 2022. From the results obtained, the best models for the historical series of the dams were ARIMA for the Coremas dam and ARIMA for the Mãe Dágua reservoir. In addition to these results, it was found that in times of El Niño, the water level in the dams was low, while in times of La Niña, an increase in the water level of the reservoirs was perceived. |
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Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in ParaíbaAnálisis de datos columétricos de las presas Coremas e Mãe D’água en ParaíbaAnálise de dados volumétricos dos açudes Coremas e Mãe D’água da ParaíbaTimes seriesReservoirsARIMA modelEl NiñoLa Niña.Séries de tempoDepósitosModelo ARIMAEl NiñoLa Niña.Séries temporaisReservatóriosModelo ARIMAEl NiñoLa Niña.The Paraíba State is inserted in a context of significant climatic variations, where in specific years, there is an abundance in the volume of water in the reservoirs. In others, the population suffers from the scarcity of this resource. In this sense, through the use of the technique of time series analysis, the present work analyzed the behavior of the volumetric level of the two main reservoirs of Paraíba, Coremas and Mãe D'água, located in the high backlands of Paraíba. The analyzed data were obtained from the Executive Agency for Water Management (AESA) site and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) corresponding to monthly volumetric data from the dams as mentioned above and measurements of temperatures of anomalies in the ocean, respectively, from January 2013 to December 2021. For the analysis of the time series, the R 4.1.2 software was used, with the "forecast" package, making it possible to find and validate the best mathematical models to describe the behavior of the series of each weir, as well as make predictions for the possible behavior of the series until July 2022. From the results obtained, the best models for the historical series of the dams were ARIMA for the Coremas dam and ARIMA for the Mãe Dágua reservoir. In addition to these results, it was found that in times of El Niño, the water level in the dams was low, while in times of La Niña, an increase in the water level of the reservoirs was perceived.El Estado de Paraíba está insertado en un contexto de grandes variaciones climáticas, donde en determinados años hay abundancia en el volumen de agua en los embalses, y en otros, la población sufre con la escasez de este recurso. En ese sentido, a través del uso de la técnica de análisis de series de tiempo, el presente trabajo analizó el comportamiento del nivel volumétrico de las dos principales represas de Paraíba, Coremas y Mãe D’água, ubicados en el alto sertón de Paraíba. Los datos analizados fueron obtenidos del portal de la Agencia Ejecutiva para la Gestión de Agua (AESA) y en la Climate Pretiction Center (CPC) correspondiendo a datos volumétricos mensuales de las referidas represas, y mediaciones de temperaturas de anomalías en el océano, respectivamente, entre enero de 2013 a diciembre de 2021. Para el análisis de series temporales fue utilizado el software R 4.1.2, con el paquete “forecast”, siendo posible encontrar y validar los mejores modelos matemáticos para describir el comportamiento de las series de cada represa, bien como hacer predicciones para el posible comportamiento de la serie hasta julio de 2022. A partir de los resultados obtenidos, los mejores modelos para las series históricas de las presas fueron ARIMA para la presa Coremas y ARIMA para la presa Mãe Dágua. Además de estos resultados, se verificó que en épocas de El Niño, el nivel de agua en las presas se presentaba bajo, mientras que en época de La Niña se percibió el crecimiento en el nivel de agua de los embalses.O Estado da Paraíba está inserido num contexto de grandes variações climáticas, onde em determinados anos há abundância no volume de água nos reservatórios, e em outros, a população sofre com a escassez deste recurso. Neste sentido, por meio do uso da técnica da análise de séries temporais, o presente trabalho analisou o comportamento do nível volumétrico dos dois principais açudes da Paraíba, Coremas e Mãe D’água, localizados no alto sertão paraibano. Os dados analisados foram obtidos no portal da Agência Executiva de Gestão das Águas (AESA) e na Climate Prediction Center (CPC) correspondendo a dados volumétricos mensais dos referidos açudes, e medições de temperaturas de anomalias no oceano, respectivamente, entre janeiro de 2013 a dezembro de 2021. Para a análise das séries temporais foi utilizado o software R 4.1.2, com o pacote “forecast”, sendo possível encontrar e validar os melhores modelos matemáticos para descrever o comportamento das séries de cada açude, bem como fazer previsões para o possível comportamento da série até julho de 2022. Dos resultados obtidos, os melhores modelos para as séries históricas dos açudes foram ARIMA para o açude Coremas e ARIMA para o açude Mãe D’água. Além destes resultados, verificou-se que em épocas de El Niño o nível de água nos açudes apresentava-se baixo, enquanto em épocas de La Niña, percebia-se o crescimento no nível de água dos reservatórios.Research, Society and Development2022-07-22info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3239710.33448/rsd-v11i10.32397Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 No. 10; e49111032397Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 Núm. 10; e49111032397Research, Society and Development; v. 11 n. 10; e491110323972525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/32397/27531Copyright (c) 2022 Ana Clara da Silva Morais; Nyedja Fialho Morais Barbosahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMorais, Ana Clara da SilvaBarbosa, Nyedja Fialho Morais2022-08-12T22:23:03Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/32397Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:48:25.355401Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba Análisis de datos columétricos de las presas Coremas e Mãe D’água en Paraíba Análise de dados volumétricos dos açudes Coremas e Mãe D’água da Paraíba |
title |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba |
spellingShingle |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba Morais, Ana Clara da Silva Times series Reservoirs ARIMA model El Niño La Niña. Séries de tempo Depósitos Modelo ARIMA El Niño La Niña. Séries temporais Reservatórios Modelo ARIMA El Niño La Niña. |
title_short |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba |
title_full |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba |
title_sort |
Analysis of volumetric data from the Coremas and Mãe D’água dams in Paraíba |
author |
Morais, Ana Clara da Silva |
author_facet |
Morais, Ana Clara da Silva Barbosa, Nyedja Fialho Morais |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Barbosa, Nyedja Fialho Morais |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Morais, Ana Clara da Silva Barbosa, Nyedja Fialho Morais |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Times series Reservoirs ARIMA model El Niño La Niña. Séries de tempo Depósitos Modelo ARIMA El Niño La Niña. Séries temporais Reservatórios Modelo ARIMA El Niño La Niña. |
topic |
Times series Reservoirs ARIMA model El Niño La Niña. Séries de tempo Depósitos Modelo ARIMA El Niño La Niña. Séries temporais Reservatórios Modelo ARIMA El Niño La Niña. |
description |
The Paraíba State is inserted in a context of significant climatic variations, where in specific years, there is an abundance in the volume of water in the reservoirs. In others, the population suffers from the scarcity of this resource. In this sense, through the use of the technique of time series analysis, the present work analyzed the behavior of the volumetric level of the two main reservoirs of Paraíba, Coremas and Mãe D'água, located in the high backlands of Paraíba. The analyzed data were obtained from the Executive Agency for Water Management (AESA) site and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) corresponding to monthly volumetric data from the dams as mentioned above and measurements of temperatures of anomalies in the ocean, respectively, from January 2013 to December 2021. For the analysis of the time series, the R 4.1.2 software was used, with the "forecast" package, making it possible to find and validate the best mathematical models to describe the behavior of the series of each weir, as well as make predictions for the possible behavior of the series until July 2022. From the results obtained, the best models for the historical series of the dams were ARIMA for the Coremas dam and ARIMA for the Mãe Dágua reservoir. In addition to these results, it was found that in times of El Niño, the water level in the dams was low, while in times of La Niña, an increase in the water level of the reservoirs was perceived. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-22 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/32397 10.33448/rsd-v11i10.32397 |
url |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/32397 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.33448/rsd-v11i10.32397 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/32397/27531 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Ana Clara da Silva Morais; Nyedja Fialho Morais Barbosa https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Ana Clara da Silva Morais; Nyedja Fialho Morais Barbosa https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 No. 10; e49111032397 Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 Núm. 10; e49111032397 Research, Society and Development; v. 11 n. 10; e49111032397 2525-3409 reponame:Research, Society and Development instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) instacron:UNIFEI |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
instacron_str |
UNIFEI |
institution |
UNIFEI |
reponame_str |
Research, Society and Development |
collection |
Research, Society and Development |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
rsd.articles@gmail.com |
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1797052813056933888 |