Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bueno, Janaina Cosmedamiana Metinoski
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar, Lima, Vanderlei Aparecido de
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Research, Society and Development
Texto Completo: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3119
Resumo: The climate varies continuously with time, and its variables can be modeled as time series. The Enos phases with El Niño and La Niña events influence temperature and precipitation in different parts of the world. The objective of the work was to evaluate the trends of the climatic variables, minimum, maximum and average temperature and rainfall, in the geographical region of Guarapuava in Paraná State, using time series and ARIMA modeling. The study comprised a time series of rainfall and temperature of 43 years. The time series trend was analyzed using the Box-Jenkins models, of integrated auto-regressive moving averages (ARIMA). It was found that the rainfall shows stationary behavior in the period. The average air temperature shows an increasing linear trend, which is a consequence of the increase more related to the increase of the minimum temperature, than of the maximum temperature over time. The average air temperature showed an increase of approximately 1.4°C in the period, rising from 16.8 to 18.2°C.
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spelling Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modelingEstudio de las características climáticas de Guarapuava mediante análisis de series temporales y modelage ARIMAEstudo de características climáticas da região de Guarapuava por meio de análise de série temporal e modelagem ARIMAClimate trendSeasonalityEl NinoClimate modelingTendência climáticaSazonalidadeEl NiñoModelagem climática.Tendencia climáticaEstacionalidadEl niñoModelado climático.The climate varies continuously with time, and its variables can be modeled as time series. The Enos phases with El Niño and La Niña events influence temperature and precipitation in different parts of the world. The objective of the work was to evaluate the trends of the climatic variables, minimum, maximum and average temperature and rainfall, in the geographical region of Guarapuava in Paraná State, using time series and ARIMA modeling. The study comprised a time series of rainfall and temperature of 43 years. The time series trend was analyzed using the Box-Jenkins models, of integrated auto-regressive moving averages (ARIMA). It was found that the rainfall shows stationary behavior in the period. The average air temperature shows an increasing linear trend, which is a consequence of the increase more related to the increase of the minimum temperature, than of the maximum temperature over time. The average air temperature showed an increase of approximately 1.4°C in the period, rising from 16.8 to 18.2°C.El clima varía continuamente con el tiempo, y sus variables pueden modelarse como series temporales. Las fases de Enos con eventos de El Niño y La Niña influyen en la temperatura y em la precipitación en diferentes partes del mundo. El objetivo del trabajo fue evaluar las tendencias de las variables climáticas de temperatura promedio, mínima y máxima y la precipitación, en la región geográfica de Guarapuava en el Estado de Paraná, utilizando series temporales y modelos ARIMA. El estudio comprendió una serie temporal de lprecipitación y temperatura de 43 años. Se analizó la tendencia de la serie temporal utilizando los modelos Box-Jenkins, de medias móviles autorregresivos integrados (ARIMA). Se encontró que la precipitación muestra un comportamiento estacionario en el período. La temperatura promedio del aire muestra una tendencia lineal creciente, que está más relacionado con el aumento de la temperatura mínima, que de la temperatura máxima en el tiempo. La temperatura promedio del aire mostró un aumento de aproximadamente 1,4°C en el período, aumentando de 16,8 a 18,2°C.O clima varia continuamente com o tempo, e suas variáveis podem ser modeladas como séries temporais. As fases do Enos com eventos El Niño e La Niña influenciam a temperatura e precipitação em diferentes partes do mundo. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar as tendências das variáveis climáticas temperatura média, mínima e máxima e precipitação pluvial, na região geográfica de Guarapuava no Estado do Paraná, com utilização de série temporal e modelagem ARIMA. O estudo compreendeu série temporal de precipitação pluvial e temperatura de 43 anos. A tendência da série temporal foi analisada com utilização dos modelos de Box-Jenkins, auto regressivos integrados de médias móveis (ARIMA). Verificou-se que a precipitação pluvial apresenta comportamento estacionário no período. A temperatura média do ar apresenta tendência linear crescente, sendo esta uma consequência da elevação mais relacionada ao aumento da temperatura mínima, do que da temperatura máxima ao longo do tempo. A temperatura média do ar apresenta aumento de aproximadamente 1,4°C no período, elevando-se de 16,8 para 18,2°C.Research, Society and Development2020-03-28info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/311910.33448/rsd-v9i5.3119Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 5; e75953119Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 5; e75953119Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 5; e759531192525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3119/5302Copyright (c) 2020 Janaina Cosmedamiana Metinoski Bueno, Sidnei Osmar JADOSKI, Natana Maria Metinoski Buenoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBueno, Janaina Cosmedamiana MetinoskiJadoski, Sidnei OsmarLima, Vanderlei Aparecido de2020-08-20T18:06:36Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/3119Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:27:26.318671Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
Estudio de las características climáticas de Guarapuava mediante análisis de series temporales y modelage ARIMA
Estudo de características climáticas da região de Guarapuava por meio de análise de série temporal e modelagem ARIMA
title Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
spellingShingle Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
Bueno, Janaina Cosmedamiana Metinoski
Climate trend
Seasonality
El Nino
Climate modeling
Tendência climática
Sazonalidade
El Niño
Modelagem climática.
Tendencia climática
Estacionalidad
El niño
Modelado climático.
title_short Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
title_full Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
title_fullStr Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
title_full_unstemmed Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
title_sort Study of the climatic characteristics of Guarapuava region through time series analysis and ARIMA modeling
author Bueno, Janaina Cosmedamiana Metinoski
author_facet Bueno, Janaina Cosmedamiana Metinoski
Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar
Lima, Vanderlei Aparecido de
author_role author
author2 Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar
Lima, Vanderlei Aparecido de
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bueno, Janaina Cosmedamiana Metinoski
Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar
Lima, Vanderlei Aparecido de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Climate trend
Seasonality
El Nino
Climate modeling
Tendência climática
Sazonalidade
El Niño
Modelagem climática.
Tendencia climática
Estacionalidad
El niño
Modelado climático.
topic Climate trend
Seasonality
El Nino
Climate modeling
Tendência climática
Sazonalidade
El Niño
Modelagem climática.
Tendencia climática
Estacionalidad
El niño
Modelado climático.
description The climate varies continuously with time, and its variables can be modeled as time series. The Enos phases with El Niño and La Niña events influence temperature and precipitation in different parts of the world. The objective of the work was to evaluate the trends of the climatic variables, minimum, maximum and average temperature and rainfall, in the geographical region of Guarapuava in Paraná State, using time series and ARIMA modeling. The study comprised a time series of rainfall and temperature of 43 years. The time series trend was analyzed using the Box-Jenkins models, of integrated auto-regressive moving averages (ARIMA). It was found that the rainfall shows stationary behavior in the period. The average air temperature shows an increasing linear trend, which is a consequence of the increase more related to the increase of the minimum temperature, than of the maximum temperature over time. The average air temperature showed an increase of approximately 1.4°C in the period, rising from 16.8 to 18.2°C.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-03-28
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3119
10.33448/rsd-v9i5.3119
url https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3119
identifier_str_mv 10.33448/rsd-v9i5.3119
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3119/5302
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 5; e75953119
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 5; e75953119
Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 5; e75953119
2525-3409
reponame:Research, Society and Development
instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron:UNIFEI
instname_str Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron_str UNIFEI
institution UNIFEI
reponame_str Research, Society and Development
collection Research, Society and Development
repository.name.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv rsd.articles@gmail.com
_version_ 1797052823050911744

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