Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Freitas, Jucarlos Rufino de
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Pessoa, Ruben Vivaldi Silva, Pereira, Mickaelle Maria de Almeida, Santana, Leika Irabele Tenório de, Silva, Joelma Mayara da, Cunha Filho, Moacyr
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Research, Society and Development
Texto Completo: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6870
Resumo: Objective: analyze and describe the best fit for time serie of solar radiation in the city of Recife/PE, applying the ARMA and ARMAX models, in addition to forecasting radiation levels for the next six years. Method: used climate series data of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), available from January 2009 to December 2018. The comparison of the models was performed by Akaike's information criteria. Results: the series of solar radiation presents a high variability of the monthly averages, indicating the presence of seasonality and a strong negative asymmetry. The results of the error statistics show the accuracy of the ARMAX model (2.1), with a percentage error close to 18.68%, comparing the observed and adjusted series, in addition, it was possible to identify that the forecast manages to capture the existence seasonality. Conclusion: ARMAX model was adequate to describe a solar radiation including exogenous variables, being a tool capable of assisting in public health policies in the fight against skin cancer and interventions.
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spelling Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PEAnálisis de series temporales de raciación solar em la Ciudad de Recife/PEAnálise em séries temporais da radiação solar na Cidade do Recife/PERadiação solarMudanças climáticasModelagemPrevisão.Solar radiationClimate changeModelingForecast.Radiación solarCambio climáticoModelado Pronóstico.Objective: analyze and describe the best fit for time serie of solar radiation in the city of Recife/PE, applying the ARMA and ARMAX models, in addition to forecasting radiation levels for the next six years. Method: used climate series data of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), available from January 2009 to December 2018. The comparison of the models was performed by Akaike's information criteria. Results: the series of solar radiation presents a high variability of the monthly averages, indicating the presence of seasonality and a strong negative asymmetry. The results of the error statistics show the accuracy of the ARMAX model (2.1), with a percentage error close to 18.68%, comparing the observed and adjusted series, in addition, it was possible to identify that the forecast manages to capture the existence seasonality. Conclusion: ARMAX model was adequate to describe a solar radiation including exogenous variables, being a tool capable of assisting in public health policies in the fight against skin cancer and interventions.Objetivo: analizar y describir el mejor ajuste para la serie temporal de radiación solar en la ciudad de Recife / PE, aplicando los modelos ARMA y ARMAX, además de predecir los niveles de radiación para los próximos seis años. Método: se utilizaron datos del Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (INMET), disponible desde enero de 2009 hasta diciembre de 2018. Los modelos se compararon utilizando los criterios de información de Akaike. Resultados: la serie de radiación solar presenta una alta variabilidad de los promedios mensuales, lo que indica la presencia de estacionalidad y una fuerte asimetría negativa. Los resultados de las estadísticas de error muestran la precisión del modelo ARMAX (2.1), con un error porcentual alrededor del 18.68%, comparando las series observadas y ajustadas, además, fue posible identificar que el pronóstico es capaz de capturar la existencia. Conclusión: el modelo ARMAX se adaptó para describir la radiación solar incluidas las variables exógenas, presentando un mejor pronóstico con buena precisión, siendo una herramienta capaz de ayudar a las políticas de salud pública en la combatir el cáncer de piel y la intervención.Objetivo: analisar e descrever o melhor ajuste para série temporal de radiação solar na cidade do Recife/PE, aplicando os modelos ARMA e ARMAX, além de prever os níveis de radiação para os próximos seis anos. Método: utilizaram-se dados de séries climáticas do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), disponibilizados no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2018. A comparação dos modelos foi realizada pelos critérios de informação de Akaike. Resultados: a série de radiação solar apresenta uma alta variabilidade das médias mensais, indicando a presença de sazonalidade e uma forte assimetria negativa. Os resultados da estatística de erros mostram a acurácia do modelo ARMAX(2,1), com erro percentual próximo de 18,68%, comparando-se a série observada e ajustadas, além disso, foi possível identificar que a previsão consegue captar a existência de sazonalidade. Conclusão: o modelo ARMAX foi adequado para descrever a radiação solar incluindo variáveis exógenas, apresentando melhor previsão com boa acurácia, sendo uma ferramenta capaz de auxiliar em políticas de saúde pública no combate ao câncer de pele e intervenções.Research, Society and Development2020-08-14info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/687010.33448/rsd-v9i9.6870Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 9; e131996870Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 9; e131996870Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 9; e1319968702525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6870/6257Copyright (c) 2020 Jucarlos Rufino de Freitashttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFreitas, Jucarlos Rufino dePessoa, Ruben Vivaldi Silva Pereira, Mickaelle Maria de Almeida Santana, Leika Irabele Tenório de Silva, Joelma Mayara da Cunha Filho, Moacyr 2020-09-18T01:42:11Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/6870Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:29:49.630447Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
Análisis de series temporales de raciación solar em la Ciudad de Recife/PE
Análise em séries temporais da radiação solar na Cidade do Recife/PE
title Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
spellingShingle Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
Freitas, Jucarlos Rufino de
Radiação solar
Mudanças climáticas
Modelagem
Previsão.
Solar radiation
Climate change
Modeling
Forecast.
Radiación solar
Cambio climático
Modelado
Pronóstico.
title_short Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
title_full Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
title_fullStr Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
title_full_unstemmed Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
title_sort Time series analysis of solar radiation in the City of Recife/PE
author Freitas, Jucarlos Rufino de
author_facet Freitas, Jucarlos Rufino de
Pessoa, Ruben Vivaldi Silva
Pereira, Mickaelle Maria de Almeida
Santana, Leika Irabele Tenório de
Silva, Joelma Mayara da
Cunha Filho, Moacyr
author_role author
author2 Pessoa, Ruben Vivaldi Silva
Pereira, Mickaelle Maria de Almeida
Santana, Leika Irabele Tenório de
Silva, Joelma Mayara da
Cunha Filho, Moacyr
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Freitas, Jucarlos Rufino de
Pessoa, Ruben Vivaldi Silva
Pereira, Mickaelle Maria de Almeida
Santana, Leika Irabele Tenório de
Silva, Joelma Mayara da
Cunha Filho, Moacyr
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Radiação solar
Mudanças climáticas
Modelagem
Previsão.
Solar radiation
Climate change
Modeling
Forecast.
Radiación solar
Cambio climático
Modelado
Pronóstico.
topic Radiação solar
Mudanças climáticas
Modelagem
Previsão.
Solar radiation
Climate change
Modeling
Forecast.
Radiación solar
Cambio climático
Modelado
Pronóstico.
description Objective: analyze and describe the best fit for time serie of solar radiation in the city of Recife/PE, applying the ARMA and ARMAX models, in addition to forecasting radiation levels for the next six years. Method: used climate series data of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), available from January 2009 to December 2018. The comparison of the models was performed by Akaike's information criteria. Results: the series of solar radiation presents a high variability of the monthly averages, indicating the presence of seasonality and a strong negative asymmetry. The results of the error statistics show the accuracy of the ARMAX model (2.1), with a percentage error close to 18.68%, comparing the observed and adjusted series, in addition, it was possible to identify that the forecast manages to capture the existence seasonality. Conclusion: ARMAX model was adequate to describe a solar radiation including exogenous variables, being a tool capable of assisting in public health policies in the fight against skin cancer and interventions.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08-14
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6870
10.33448/rsd-v9i9.6870
url https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6870
identifier_str_mv 10.33448/rsd-v9i9.6870
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/6870/6257
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Jucarlos Rufino de Freitas
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Jucarlos Rufino de Freitas
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 9; e131996870
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 9; e131996870
Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 9; e131996870
2525-3409
reponame:Research, Society and Development
instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron:UNIFEI
instname_str Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron_str UNIFEI
institution UNIFEI
reponame_str Research, Society and Development
collection Research, Society and Development
repository.name.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv rsd.articles@gmail.com
_version_ 1797052655522021376

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