Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Teixeira, Lauro Augusto Ribas
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar, Faggian, Robert, Sposito, Victor
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Research, Society and Development
Texto Completo: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/2461
Resumo: Climatic conditions affect the productivity and economic viability of agriculture that is challenged by constant temperature and precipitation variations through the time. This study aimed to estimate climate change in the Guarapuava microregion in the state of Paraná, analyzing the impacts on corn crop, using modeling for future scenarios and comparing it with a base scenario of the past. Mathematical adequacy models were fitted using Multiple Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), using the climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC) for the calculation of the Land suitability potential of the crops considering the variables soil, topography and climate. It was concluded thatthe projection of average temperature increase during the crop cycle, is the environmental factor of greatest impact for the reduction of the agricultural aptitude index for corn in Guarapuava microregion, in the year 2050.
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spelling Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, ParanáEfecto del cambio climático sobre el índice de aptitud agrícola para el cultivo de maíz en la microrregión de Guarapuava, ParanáEfeito de alterações climáticas na aptidão agrícola para cultivo de milho na microrregião de Guarapuava, Paranácenários climáticosanálise multicriterialmilhoIPCC.climate scenariosmulticriteria analysismaízeIPCC.escenarios climáticosanálisis multicriteriosmaízIPCCClimatic conditions affect the productivity and economic viability of agriculture that is challenged by constant temperature and precipitation variations through the time. This study aimed to estimate climate change in the Guarapuava microregion in the state of Paraná, analyzing the impacts on corn crop, using modeling for future scenarios and comparing it with a base scenario of the past. Mathematical adequacy models were fitted using Multiple Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), using the climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC) for the calculation of the Land suitability potential of the crops considering the variables soil, topography and climate. It was concluded thatthe projection of average temperature increase during the crop cycle, is the environmental factor of greatest impact for the reduction of the agricultural aptitude index for corn in Guarapuava microregion, in the year 2050.Las condiciones climáticas afectan la productividad y la viabilidad económica de la agricultura que se ve desafiada por las constantes variaciones de temperatura y precipitación al largo del tiempo. El objetivo de este trabajo fue estimar el cambio climático en la microrregión de Guarapuava en el estado de Paraná, analizando los impactos en el cultivo de maíz, utilizando modelos para escenarios futuros y comparándolo con un escenario base del pasado. Se ajustaron modelos de adecuación matemática mediante análisis de criterios múltiples (MCA) e proceso de jerarquía analítica (AHP), utilizando escenarios climáticos RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 (IPCC) para el cálculo del índice de aptitud agrícola del cultivo considerando las variables suelo, topografía y clima. Se concluyó que la proyección del aumento de la temperatura promedio durante el ciclo del cultivo es el factor ambiental con mayor impacto para la reducción del índice de aptitud agrícola para el maíz en la microrregión de Guarapuava, en el año 2050.Condições climáticas afetam a produtividade e a viabilidade econômica da agricultura que é desafiada pelas constantes variações de temperatura e precipitação ao longo do tempo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar alterações climáticas na microrregião de Guarapuava no estado do Paraná, analisando os impactos sobre a cultura do milho, utilizando modelagem para cenários futuros e comparando com um cenário base do passado. Foram ajustados modelos de adequação matemática utilizando Análise de Múltiplos Critérios (MCA) e Processo de Hierarquia Analítica (AHP), utilizando os cenários climáticos RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 (IPCC) para o cálculo do índice de aptidão agrícola da cultura considerando as variáveis solo, topografia e clima. Concluiu-se que a projeção de aumento da temperatura média durante o ciclo de cultivo é o fator ambiental de maior impacto para a redução do índice de aptidão agrícola para o milho na microrregião de Guarapuava no ano de 2050.Research, Society and Development2020-03-20info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/246110.33448/rsd-v9i4.2461Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 4; e76942461Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 4; e76942461Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 4; e769424612525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIporhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/2461/2274Copyright (c) 2020 Lauro Augusto Ribas Teixeira, Sidnei Osmar Jadoski, Robert Faggian, Victor Spositoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTeixeira, Lauro Augusto RibasJadoski, Sidnei OsmarFaggian, RobertSposito, Victor2020-08-20T18:07:16Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/2461Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:27:04.041880Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
Efecto del cambio climático sobre el índice de aptitud agrícola para el cultivo de maíz en la microrregión de Guarapuava, Paraná
Efeito de alterações climáticas na aptidão agrícola para cultivo de milho na microrregião de Guarapuava, Paraná
title Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
spellingShingle Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
Teixeira, Lauro Augusto Ribas
cenários climáticos
análise multicriterial
milho
IPCC.
climate scenarios
multicriteria analysis
maíze
IPCC.
escenarios climáticos
análisis multicriterios
maíz
IPCC
title_short Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
title_full Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
title_fullStr Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
title_full_unstemmed Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
title_sort Effect of climate change on agricultural suitability for corn cultivation in microregion of Guarapuava, Paraná
author Teixeira, Lauro Augusto Ribas
author_facet Teixeira, Lauro Augusto Ribas
Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar
Faggian, Robert
Sposito, Victor
author_role author
author2 Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar
Faggian, Robert
Sposito, Victor
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Teixeira, Lauro Augusto Ribas
Jadoski, Sidnei Osmar
Faggian, Robert
Sposito, Victor
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv cenários climáticos
análise multicriterial
milho
IPCC.
climate scenarios
multicriteria analysis
maíze
IPCC.
escenarios climáticos
análisis multicriterios
maíz
IPCC
topic cenários climáticos
análise multicriterial
milho
IPCC.
climate scenarios
multicriteria analysis
maíze
IPCC.
escenarios climáticos
análisis multicriterios
maíz
IPCC
description Climatic conditions affect the productivity and economic viability of agriculture that is challenged by constant temperature and precipitation variations through the time. This study aimed to estimate climate change in the Guarapuava microregion in the state of Paraná, analyzing the impacts on corn crop, using modeling for future scenarios and comparing it with a base scenario of the past. Mathematical adequacy models were fitted using Multiple Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), using the climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (IPCC) for the calculation of the Land suitability potential of the crops considering the variables soil, topography and climate. It was concluded thatthe projection of average temperature increase during the crop cycle, is the environmental factor of greatest impact for the reduction of the agricultural aptitude index for corn in Guarapuava microregion, in the year 2050.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-03-20
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/2461
10.33448/rsd-v9i4.2461
url https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/2461
identifier_str_mv 10.33448/rsd-v9i4.2461
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/2461/2274
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 No. 4; e76942461
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 9 Núm. 4; e76942461
Research, Society and Development; v. 9 n. 4; e76942461
2525-3409
reponame:Research, Society and Development
instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron:UNIFEI
instname_str Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
instacron_str UNIFEI
institution UNIFEI
reponame_str Research, Society and Development
collection Research, Society and Development
repository.name.fl_str_mv Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv rsd.articles@gmail.com
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