Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Research, Society and Development |
Texto Completo: | https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/33409 |
Resumo: | The study investigates the illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique with a particular focus on the effect of macroeconomic factors. Relying on quarterly time series data (2008Q1-2019Q4), the study adopted the ARDL estimation procedure and a granger causality test for the purpose of analysis. From the results, it was revealed that real exchange rate and government budget deficit have a significant and positive effect on illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in the long run. However, the short-run inflation as well as the government budget deficit and external debt were found to influence the movement of illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique. Furthermore, granger causality results revealed a bidirectional effect moving between illicit financial outflows and external debt, and between control of corruption and illicit financial outflows. |
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Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factorsFlujos financieros ilícitos en el sector de los recursos naturales de Mozambique: El efecto de los factores macroeconómicosFluxos financeiros ilícitos no setor de recursos naturais de Moçambique: O efeito de fatores macroeconômicosFluxos financeiros ilícitosFatores macroeconômicosSector de recursos naturais de Moçambique.Flujos financieros IlícitosFactores macroeconómicosSector de recursos naturales de Mozambique.Illicit financial flowsMacroeconomic factorsMozambique natural resource sector.The study investigates the illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique with a particular focus on the effect of macroeconomic factors. Relying on quarterly time series data (2008Q1-2019Q4), the study adopted the ARDL estimation procedure and a granger causality test for the purpose of analysis. From the results, it was revealed that real exchange rate and government budget deficit have a significant and positive effect on illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in the long run. However, the short-run inflation as well as the government budget deficit and external debt were found to influence the movement of illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique. Furthermore, granger causality results revealed a bidirectional effect moving between illicit financial outflows and external debt, and between control of corruption and illicit financial outflows.El estudio investiga los flujos financieros ilícitos del sector de recursos naturales en Mozambique con un enfoque particular en el efecto de los factores macroeconómicos. Basándose en datos de series temporales trimestrales (2008Q1-2019Q4), el estudio adoptó el procedimiento de estimación ARDL y una prueba de causalidad de Granger para fines de análisis. A partir de los resultados, se reveló que el tipo de cambio real y el déficit presupuestario del gobierno tienen un efecto significativo y positivo en los flujos financieros ilícitos del sector de los recursos naturales a largo plazo. Sin embargo, se descubrió que la inflación a corto plazo, así como el déficit presupuestario del gobierno y la deuda externa influyen en el movimiento de flujos financieros ilícitos del sector de recursos naturales en Mozambique. Además, los resultados de causalidad de Granger revelaron un efecto bidireccional que se mueve entre las salidas financieras ilícitas y la deuda externa, y entre el control de la corrupción y las salidas financieras ilícitas.O estudo investiga os fluxos financeiros ilícitos do sector dos recursos naturais em Moçambique com um foco particular no efeito dos factores macroeconómicos. Com base em dados de séries temporais trimestrais (2008Q1-2019Q4), o estudo adotou o procedimento de estimação ARDL e um teste de causalidade de Granger para fins de análise. Os resultados revelaram que a taxa de câmbio real e o déficit orçamentário do governo têm um efeito significativo e positivo sobre os fluxos financeiros ilícitos do setor de recursos naturais no longo prazo. No entanto, a inflação de curto prazo assim como o déficit orçamentário do governo e dívida externa influenciaram o movimento dos fluxos financeiros ilícitos do setor de recursos naturais em Moçambique. Além disso, os resultados de causalidade de Granger revelaram um efeito bidirecional entre saídas financeiras ilícitas e dívida externa, e entre controle da corrupção e saídas financeiras ilícitas.Research, Society and Development2022-08-18info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/3340910.33448/rsd-v11i11.33409Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 No. 11; e149111133409Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 Núm. 11; e149111133409Research, Society and Development; v. 11 n. 11; e1491111334092525-3409reponame:Research, Society and Developmentinstname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)instacron:UNIFEIenghttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/33409/28300Copyright (c) 2022 Rafael da Cruz Macamo; Talatu Jallohhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMacamo, Rafael da Cruz Jalloh, Talatu2022-09-05T13:24:46Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/33409Revistahttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/indexPUBhttps://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/oairsd.articles@gmail.com2525-34092525-3409opendoar:2024-01-17T09:49:04.041212Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors Flujos financieros ilícitos en el sector de los recursos naturales de Mozambique: El efecto de los factores macroeconómicos Fluxos financeiros ilícitos no setor de recursos naturais de Moçambique: O efeito de fatores macroeconômicos |
title |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors |
spellingShingle |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors Macamo, Rafael da Cruz Fluxos financeiros ilícitos Fatores macroeconômicos Sector de recursos naturais de Moçambique. Flujos financieros Ilícitos Factores macroeconómicos Sector de recursos naturales de Mozambique. Illicit financial flows Macroeconomic factors Mozambique natural resource sector. |
title_short |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors |
title_full |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors |
title_fullStr |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors |
title_full_unstemmed |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors |
title_sort |
Illicit financial flows in Mozambique’s natural resource sector: The effect of macroeconomic factors |
author |
Macamo, Rafael da Cruz |
author_facet |
Macamo, Rafael da Cruz Jalloh, Talatu |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jalloh, Talatu |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Macamo, Rafael da Cruz Jalloh, Talatu |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Fluxos financeiros ilícitos Fatores macroeconômicos Sector de recursos naturais de Moçambique. Flujos financieros Ilícitos Factores macroeconómicos Sector de recursos naturales de Mozambique. Illicit financial flows Macroeconomic factors Mozambique natural resource sector. |
topic |
Fluxos financeiros ilícitos Fatores macroeconômicos Sector de recursos naturais de Moçambique. Flujos financieros Ilícitos Factores macroeconómicos Sector de recursos naturales de Mozambique. Illicit financial flows Macroeconomic factors Mozambique natural resource sector. |
description |
The study investigates the illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique with a particular focus on the effect of macroeconomic factors. Relying on quarterly time series data (2008Q1-2019Q4), the study adopted the ARDL estimation procedure and a granger causality test for the purpose of analysis. From the results, it was revealed that real exchange rate and government budget deficit have a significant and positive effect on illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in the long run. However, the short-run inflation as well as the government budget deficit and external debt were found to influence the movement of illicit financial flows from the natural resource sector in Mozambique. Furthermore, granger causality results revealed a bidirectional effect moving between illicit financial outflows and external debt, and between control of corruption and illicit financial outflows. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-08-18 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/33409 10.33448/rsd-v11i11.33409 |
url |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/33409 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.33448/rsd-v11i11.33409 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/33409/28300 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Rafael da Cruz Macamo; Talatu Jalloh https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2022 Rafael da Cruz Macamo; Talatu Jalloh https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 No. 11; e149111133409 Research, Society and Development; Vol. 11 Núm. 11; e149111133409 Research, Society and Development; v. 11 n. 11; e149111133409 2525-3409 reponame:Research, Society and Development instname:Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) instacron:UNIFEI |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
instacron_str |
UNIFEI |
institution |
UNIFEI |
reponame_str |
Research, Society and Development |
collection |
Research, Society and Development |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Research, Society and Development - Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
rsd.articles@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1797052770182758400 |