Recurrence quantification analysis of monthly rainfall time series in Pernambuco, Brazil

• Autor(a) principal: Santana, Leika Irabele Tenório de
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Silva, Antonio Samuel Alves da, Menezes, Rômulo Simões Cezar, Stosic, Tatijana
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Research, Society and Development
• DOI: 10.33448/rsd-v9i9.7737
• Texto Completo: https://rsdjournal.org/index.php/rsd/article/view/7737
• topic: Rainfall; Recurrence plot; Recurrence quantification analysis; Precipitaciones; Grafico de recurrencia; Análisis de cuantificación de recurrencia; Precipitação; Gráfico de recorrência; Análise quantitativa de recorrência.

Precipitation is the main climatic variable that is used for modeling risks indices for natural disasters. We investigated nonlinear dynamics of monthly rainfall temporal series recorded from 1962 to 2012, at three stations in Pernambuco state, Brazil, located in regions with different rainfall regime (Zona da Mata, Agreste and Sertão), provided by the Meteorological Laboratory of the Institute of Technology of Pernambuco (Laboratório de Meteorologia do Instituto de Tecnologia de Pernambuco – LAMEP/ITEP). The objective of this work is to contribute to a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall in the state of Pernambuco. We use the methodology from nonlinear dynamics theory, Recurrence plot (RP) that allows to distinguish between different types of underlying processes. The results showed that rainfall regime in deep inland semiarid Sertão region is characterized by weaker and less complex deterministic behavior, comparing to Zona da Mata and Agreste, where we identified transitions between chaotic and nonstationary type of dynamics. For transitional Agreste region rainfall dynamics showed stronger memory with longer mean prediction time, while for sub humid Zona da Mata rainfall dynamics is characterized by laminar (slowly changing) states.