Project Evaluation and Economic-Financial Management: An Applied Study in the Metalurgy Industry

• Autor(a) principal: Moreira, Raquel Alves
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Outros Autores: Locatelli, Ronaldo Lamounier, Afonso, Tarcisio
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP)
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/article/view/9626
• topic: Valuation; Project Management; Risks; Steel Industry.; Valuation; Gestão de Projetos; Riscos; Metalurgia.

This study aimed to evaluate a newly deployed project in Minas Gerais that is engaged in producing inputs for the steel industry, in terms of generation of value to investors. Cash flows were identified, both in explicit projections and in perpetuity, as well as the capital cost of opportunity necessary to discount the future amounts of cash. The estimated cost of capital requires the pricing of the cost of equity, and in this study was used the conditional CAPM. However, as the company has no shares traded on the stock exchange, it was necessary to use the bottom up method with information from companies with similar risks for estimates of leverage beta (systematic risk measurement proxy). The results show that the company can generate positive value in the various scenarios considered, but only the most daring scenario of increased production and sales could result in amounts consistent with the expectations of shareholders upon realization of investments. The other scenarios would imply operational inefficiencies, as it would result in a low occupation of installed capacity. Furthermore, the Value at Risk (VaR) and the expected value of the project were estimated.