Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTE |
Texto Completo: | http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4248 |
Resumo: | Faced with the demand for solar energy from alternative sources, in addition to being clean and renewable, photovoltaic solar energy is an increasingly attractive option. Thus, an investment feasibility analysis is required in a solar photovoltaic installation. In this work, an analysis of the cost variability of the installation of the photovoltaic system in Brazil (R$/kWp) by the Monte Carlo method is carried out and compared to the variation in countries where the technology is already established and developed in the world, such as China, United States and Germany. Also by the Monte Carlo method, it is evaluated the levelized cost of energy (R$/kWh) in the different regions of the country and is considered an electric energy tariff for its viability. In addition, a combination of photovoltaic systems in Brazil is analyzed and the viability of different powers installed at different levels of solar energy in the extension of the national territory is analyzed. All analyzes are based on official documents and scientific papers. The cost of photovoltaic systems in Brazil has an average value of about 2,100 $/kWp, lower than that of the United States and decreases exponentially as the power of the system increases. The viability occurs in different ways in each region of Brazil and at different levels of solar radiation. The Northeast region appears as the most feasible to invest in photovoltaic systems among all regions. It was found that the variability depends mainly on the level of solar radiation, the power of the photovoltaic system and the current electric energy tariff charged by the local utility. |
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Souza, Samuel Nelson Melegari dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0938805013383423Souza, Samuel Nelson Melegari dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0938805013383423Siqueira, Jair Antonio Cruzhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5644626331586827Santos, José Airton Azevedo doshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1208427854093144http://lattes.cnpq.br/4516608337497926Schram, Igor Bertolino2019-05-13T12:36:09Z2019-02-19SCHRAM, Igor Bertolino. Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo. 2019. 103 f. Dissertação (Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Energia na Agricultura) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Cascavel, 2019.http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4248Faced with the demand for solar energy from alternative sources, in addition to being clean and renewable, photovoltaic solar energy is an increasingly attractive option. Thus, an investment feasibility analysis is required in a solar photovoltaic installation. In this work, an analysis of the cost variability of the installation of the photovoltaic system in Brazil (R$/kWp) by the Monte Carlo method is carried out and compared to the variation in countries where the technology is already established and developed in the world, such as China, United States and Germany. Also by the Monte Carlo method, it is evaluated the levelized cost of energy (R$/kWh) in the different regions of the country and is considered an electric energy tariff for its viability. In addition, a combination of photovoltaic systems in Brazil is analyzed and the viability of different powers installed at different levels of solar energy in the extension of the national territory is analyzed. All analyzes are based on official documents and scientific papers. The cost of photovoltaic systems in Brazil has an average value of about 2,100 $/kWp, lower than that of the United States and decreases exponentially as the power of the system increases. The viability occurs in different ways in each region of Brazil and at different levels of solar radiation. The Northeast region appears as the most feasible to invest in photovoltaic systems among all regions. It was found that the variability depends mainly on the level of solar radiation, the power of the photovoltaic system and the current electric energy tariff charged by the local utility.Diante da crescente demanda por fontes de energia alternativas, além de limpas e renováveis, a energia solar fotovoltaica se insere como uma opção cada vez mais atrativa. Assim, faz-se necessária uma análise de viabilidade de investimento em uma instalação solar fotovoltaica. Neste trabalho, é realizada uma análise da variabilidade do custo da instalação do sistema fotovoltaico no Brasil (R$/kWp) pelo método de Monte Carlo e comparada com a variabilidade do custo em países nos quais a tecnologia já está estabelecida e desenvolvida no mundo, como China, Estados Unidos e Alemanha. A partir do método de Monte Carlo também é verificado o custo nivelado de energia do sistema fotovoltaico (R$/kWh) nas diferentes regiões do país e comparado à tarifa de energia elétrica a fim de avaliar a sua viabilidade. Além disso, é levantada a curva de custo de sistemas fotovoltaicos no Brasil e analisada a viabilidade de diferentes potências instaladas em diferentes níveis de radiação solar na extensão do território nacional. Todas as análises são feitas com base em documentos oficiais e trabalhos científicos. O custo dos sistemas fotovoltaicos no Brasil tem um valor médio de cerca de 2.100 $/kWp, inferior ao dos Estados Unidos e decresce exponencialmente conforme o aumento da potência do sistema. A viabilidade apresenta-se de diferentes formas em cada região do Brasil e em diferentes níveis de radiação solar. A região Nordeste aparece como a mais viável para investir em sistemas fotovoltaicos dentre todas as regiões. Constatou-se que a variabilidade depende principalmente do nível de radiação solar, da potência do sistema fotovoltaico e da tarifa de energia elétrica vigente cobrada pela concessionária local.Submitted by Neusa Fagundes (neusa.fagundes@unioeste.br) on 2019-05-13T12:36:09Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Igor_Schram2019.pdf: 4808664 bytes, checksum: b24bb307edc54520ef755fe486c3dc2c (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2019-05-13T12:36:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Igor_Schram2019.pdf: 4808664 bytes, checksum: b24bb307edc54520ef755fe486c3dc2c (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019-02-19Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESapplication/pdfpor6588633818200016417500Universidade Estadual do Oeste do ParanáCascavelPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Energia na AgriculturaUNIOESTEBrasilCentro de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicashttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSistemas fotovoltaicosGeração distribuídaMonte CarloCusto nivelado de energiaPhotovoltaic systemsDistributed generationMonte CarloLevelized cost of energyCIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLASensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte CarloSensitivity of the Cost of Photovoltaic Electrical Energy in Brazil Using the Monte Carlo Method.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis2289958089820954741600600600600221437444286838201591854457215887615552075167498588264571reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do UNIOESTEinstname:Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)instacron:UNIOESTEORIGINALIgor_Schram2019.pdfIgor_Schram2019.pdfapplication/pdf4808664http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/4248/5/Igor_Schram2019.pdfb24bb307edc54520ef755fe486c3dc2cMD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo |
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv |
Sensitivity of the Cost of Photovoltaic Electrical Energy in Brazil Using the Monte Carlo Method. |
title |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo |
spellingShingle |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo Schram, Igor Bertolino Sistemas fotovoltaicos Geração distribuída Monte Carlo Custo nivelado de energia Photovoltaic systems Distributed generation Monte Carlo Levelized cost of energy CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA |
title_short |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo |
title_full |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo |
title_fullStr |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo |
title_sort |
Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo |
author |
Schram, Igor Bertolino |
author_facet |
Schram, Igor Bertolino |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Souza, Samuel Nelson Melegari de |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/0938805013383423 |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Souza, Samuel Nelson Melegari de |
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/0938805013383423 |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Siqueira, Jair Antonio Cruz |
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/5644626331586827 |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
Santos, José Airton Azevedo dos |
dc.contributor.referee3Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1208427854093144 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4516608337497926 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Schram, Igor Bertolino |
contributor_str_mv |
Souza, Samuel Nelson Melegari de Souza, Samuel Nelson Melegari de Siqueira, Jair Antonio Cruz Santos, José Airton Azevedo dos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Sistemas fotovoltaicos Geração distribuída Monte Carlo Custo nivelado de energia |
topic |
Sistemas fotovoltaicos Geração distribuída Monte Carlo Custo nivelado de energia Photovoltaic systems Distributed generation Monte Carlo Levelized cost of energy CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Photovoltaic systems Distributed generation Monte Carlo Levelized cost of energy |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA |
description |
Faced with the demand for solar energy from alternative sources, in addition to being clean and renewable, photovoltaic solar energy is an increasingly attractive option. Thus, an investment feasibility analysis is required in a solar photovoltaic installation. In this work, an analysis of the cost variability of the installation of the photovoltaic system in Brazil (R$/kWp) by the Monte Carlo method is carried out and compared to the variation in countries where the technology is already established and developed in the world, such as China, United States and Germany. Also by the Monte Carlo method, it is evaluated the levelized cost of energy (R$/kWh) in the different regions of the country and is considered an electric energy tariff for its viability. In addition, a combination of photovoltaic systems in Brazil is analyzed and the viability of different powers installed at different levels of solar energy in the extension of the national territory is analyzed. All analyzes are based on official documents and scientific papers. The cost of photovoltaic systems in Brazil has an average value of about 2,100 $/kWp, lower than that of the United States and decreases exponentially as the power of the system increases. The viability occurs in different ways in each region of Brazil and at different levels of solar radiation. The Northeast region appears as the most feasible to invest in photovoltaic systems among all regions. It was found that the variability depends mainly on the level of solar radiation, the power of the photovoltaic system and the current electric energy tariff charged by the local utility. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2019-05-13T12:36:09Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-02-19 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SCHRAM, Igor Bertolino. Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo. 2019. 103 f. Dissertação (Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Energia na Agricultura) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Cascavel, 2019. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4248 |
identifier_str_mv |
SCHRAM, Igor Bertolino. Sensibilidade do custo da energia elétrica fotovoltaica no Brasil utilizando o método de Monte Carlo. 2019. 103 f. Dissertação (Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Energia na Agricultura) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, Cascavel, 2019. |
url |
http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/4248 |
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por |
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por |
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600 600 600 600 |
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2214374442868382015 |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná Cascavel |
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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Energia na Agricultura |
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UNIOESTE |
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Brasil |
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Centro de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas |
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Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná Cascavel |
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