Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2000 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Informe Gepec (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/article/view/6260 |
Resumo: | This paper proposes a methodology to project population growth for small areas facing high economic growth rates. It is used as case study the Alto Paraopeba Valley in Brazil, a region which will face high growth rates in the following two decades due to investments in mining and in the steel industry. These economic changes will bring high employment generation and thus affect the demographic dynamics in the region, particularly through high in-migration rates, and will change urban and regional development patterns, particularly by imposing further pressures on the already fragile infrastructure (e.g., water supply, sanitation, transportation system and housing) and social services (health, education). We propose a methodology which belongs to a set of projection techniques known as “ratio methods” which aims to forecast pressures from population growth, at the region al and municipal levels, and which is sensible to incorporate employment scenarios. The results will be interpreted at light of the literature on the linkages between demographic dynamics, economic growth and development. In particular, we discuss the need to improve methodologies in demographic analysis which incorporate economic scenarios and their impacts on migration, the population component most sensible to varying regional economic scenarios. |
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Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas GeraisProjeção Demográfica De Pequenas Áreas Integrada A Projeções Econômicas: Um Estudo De Caso A Partir De Cenários De Migração Na Região Do Alto Paraopeba, Minas Geraisdinâmica demográficamigraçãoprojeção de pequenas áreasAlto Paraopeba. This paper proposes a methodology to project population growth for small areas facing high economic growth rates. It is used as case study the Alto Paraopeba Valley in Brazil, a region which will face high growth rates in the following two decades due to investments in mining and in the steel industry. These economic changes will bring high employment generation and thus affect the demographic dynamics in the region, particularly through high in-migration rates, and will change urban and regional development patterns, particularly by imposing further pressures on the already fragile infrastructure (e.g., water supply, sanitation, transportation system and housing) and social services (health, education). We propose a methodology which belongs to a set of projection techniques known as “ratio methods” which aims to forecast pressures from population growth, at the region al and municipal levels, and which is sensible to incorporate employment scenarios. The results will be interpreted at light of the literature on the linkages between demographic dynamics, economic growth and development. In particular, we discuss the need to improve methodologies in demographic analysis which incorporate economic scenarios and their impacts on migration, the population component most sensible to varying regional economic scenarios. O objetivo principal desse trabalho é discutir uma proposta de projeção demográfica para pequenas áreas a partir de cenários de crescimento econômico em que a migração e pendularidade do trabalho são, no curto e médio prazo, os elementos mais importantes da dinâmica demográfica regional. Utiliza-se como estudo de caso a região do Alto Paraopeba em Minas Gerais, que contará, em um período de quinze anos, com grandes investimentos no setor minero-siderúrgico. Os efeitos resultantes desses investimentos, particularmente em termos de geração de empregos, serão traduzidos em mudanças demográficas, com a ampliação da imigração e, por conseguinte, do crescimento populacional. Os investimentos também alterarão o padrão de desenvolvimento regional e impõem aos planejadores o desafio de atender a população crescente com serviços e infra-estrutura. Como forma de investigar esses cenários, é discutida uma metodologia de projeção para a região e seus municípios a partir de técnicas sensíveis a mudanças econômicas. Para essa finalidade, será discutida a utilidade de uma técnicas de projeção de pequenas áreas que faz parte de um conjunto de técnicas conhecidas como ratio methods. O artigo propõe ainda uma discussão, a partir da literatura, sobre as relações entre dinâmica populacional, crescimento econômico e planejamento regional, a qual servirá de suporte para a interpretação e discussão dos resultados do estudo de caso. Em particular, discute-se a necessidade de aprimorar as metodologias em estudos demográficos de forma a incluir técnicas mais sensíveis à migração, componente demográfico que responde mais rapidamente a variações econômicas regionais.EdUnioeste2000-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/article/view/626010.48075/igepec.v15i3.6260Informe GEPEC; v. 15 n. 3 (2011); 72-881679-415X1676-067010.48075/igepec.v15i3reponame:Informe Gepec (Online)instname:Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)instacron:UNIOESTEporhttps://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/article/view/6260/4783Barbieri, Alisson Fláviodos Santos, Reinaldo Onofreinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2023-05-16T22:13:55Zoai:ojs.e-revista.unioeste.br:article/6260Revistahttps://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepecPUBhttps://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/oairevista.gepec@gmail.com1679-415X1676-0670opendoar:2023-05-16T22:13:55Informe Gepec (Online) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais Projeção Demográfica De Pequenas Áreas Integrada A Projeções Econômicas: Um Estudo De Caso A Partir De Cenários De Migração Na Região Do Alto Paraopeba, Minas Gerais |
title |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais |
spellingShingle |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais Barbieri, Alisson Flávio dinâmica demográfica migração projeção de pequenas áreas Alto Paraopeba. |
title_short |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais |
title_full |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais |
title_fullStr |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais |
title_full_unstemmed |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais |
title_sort |
Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais |
author |
Barbieri, Alisson Flávio |
author_facet |
Barbieri, Alisson Flávio dos Santos, Reinaldo Onofre |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
dos Santos, Reinaldo Onofre |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Barbieri, Alisson Flávio dos Santos, Reinaldo Onofre |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
dinâmica demográfica migração projeção de pequenas áreas Alto Paraopeba. |
topic |
dinâmica demográfica migração projeção de pequenas áreas Alto Paraopeba. |
description |
This paper proposes a methodology to project population growth for small areas facing high economic growth rates. It is used as case study the Alto Paraopeba Valley in Brazil, a region which will face high growth rates in the following two decades due to investments in mining and in the steel industry. These economic changes will bring high employment generation and thus affect the demographic dynamics in the region, particularly through high in-migration rates, and will change urban and regional development patterns, particularly by imposing further pressures on the already fragile infrastructure (e.g., water supply, sanitation, transportation system and housing) and social services (health, education). We propose a methodology which belongs to a set of projection techniques known as “ratio methods” which aims to forecast pressures from population growth, at the region al and municipal levels, and which is sensible to incorporate employment scenarios. The results will be interpreted at light of the literature on the linkages between demographic dynamics, economic growth and development. In particular, we discuss the need to improve methodologies in demographic analysis which incorporate economic scenarios and their impacts on migration, the population component most sensible to varying regional economic scenarios. |
publishDate |
2000 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2000-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/article/view/6260 10.48075/igepec.v15i3.6260 |
url |
https://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/article/view/6260 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.48075/igepec.v15i3.6260 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/article/view/6260/4783 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EdUnioeste |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EdUnioeste |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Informe GEPEC; v. 15 n. 3 (2011); 72-88 1679-415X 1676-0670 10.48075/igepec.v15i3 reponame:Informe Gepec (Online) instname:Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE) instacron:UNIOESTE |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE) |
instacron_str |
UNIOESTE |
institution |
UNIOESTE |
reponame_str |
Informe Gepec (Online) |
collection |
Informe Gepec (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Informe Gepec (Online) - Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
revista.gepec@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1796797390225670144 |