Demographic projection of small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of sceneries of migration for Region of High Paraopeba, Minas Gerais

• Autor(a) principal: Barbieri, Alisson Flávio
• Data de Publicação: 2000
• Outros Autores: dos Santos, Reinaldo Onofre
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Informe Gepec (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/gepec/article/view/6260
• topic: dinâmica demográfica; migração; projeção de pequenas áreas; Alto Paraopeba.

This paper proposes a methodology to project population growth for small areas facing high economic growth rates. It is used as case study the Alto Paraopeba Valley in Brazil, a region which will face high growth rates in the following two decades due to investments in mining and in the steel industry. These economic changes will bring high employment generation and thus affect the demographic dynamics in the region, particularly through high in-migration rates, and will change urban and regional development patterns, particularly by imposing further pressures on the already fragile infrastructure (e.g., water supply, sanitation, transportation system and housing) and social services (health, education). We propose a methodology which belongs to a set of projection techniques known as “ratio methods” which aims to forecast pressures from population growth, at the region al and municipal levels, and which is sensible to incorporate employment scenarios. The results will be interpreted at light of the literature on the linkages between demographic dynamics, economic growth and development. In particular, we discuss the need to improve methodologies in demographic analysis which incorporate economic scenarios and their impacts on migration, the population component most sensible to varying regional economic scenarios.