Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil]
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNITAU |
Texto Completo: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85009740720&doi=10.4136%2fambi-agua.1894&partnerID=40&md5=04b1c78d4ea1279928e97b1633dcc75f http://repositorio.unitau.br/jspui/handle/20.500.11874/1902 |
Resumo: | This article analyzes the climatic differences that occur in a transect that extends from São Paulo State coast to the south of Minas Gerais State, including the municipalities of Ubatuba/SP, Taubaté/SP, Campos do Jordão/SP and Extrema/MG. This territory has a complex topography which contributes to the existence of different types of climate and vegetation. Based on precipitation and temperature data produced by a climate simulation model, it was possible to statistically analyze the future climate of this region heavily transformed by human occupation and by the development of agriculture. Using the regional model ETA (downscaling) in the resolution 20 X 20 km coupled with the general circulation atmosphere-ocean model HadCM3, it was possible to forecast the climate scenarios A1B from IPCC for the time intervals 2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2099 and to compare them with historic data (1961-1990). Based on data analyzes, an increase in the average air temperature was found for each time period observed, reaching more than 3ºC higher until the end of this century. Also, in general, there will be an increase in the total annual amount of precipitation in these three periods of time, which might be reduced in the last period (2071-2099), especially for Ubatuba/SP. Although the temperature and precipitation increases are higher in January in nearly all the studied cities, there will be a higher variability in July, showing that extreme events are more likely to occur during winter in nearly all regions. © 2016, Institute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi). All rights reserved. |
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Dias V.Fisch G.Fisch S.T.V.571929774087005206400352186155002019-09-12T16:26:09Z2019-09-12T16:26:09Z20161151042105510.4136/ambi-agua.18941980993Xhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85009740720&doi=10.4136%2fambi-agua.1894&partnerID=40&md5=04b1c78d4ea1279928e97b1633dcc75fhttp://repositorio.unitau.br/jspui/handle/20.500.11874/19022-s2.0-85009740720This article analyzes the climatic differences that occur in a transect that extends from São Paulo State coast to the south of Minas Gerais State, including the municipalities of Ubatuba/SP, Taubaté/SP, Campos do Jordão/SP and Extrema/MG. This territory has a complex topography which contributes to the existence of different types of climate and vegetation. Based on precipitation and temperature data produced by a climate simulation model, it was possible to statistically analyze the future climate of this region heavily transformed by human occupation and by the development of agriculture. Using the regional model ETA (downscaling) in the resolution 20 X 20 km coupled with the general circulation atmosphere-ocean model HadCM3, it was possible to forecast the climate scenarios A1B from IPCC for the time intervals 2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2099 and to compare them with historic data (1961-1990). Based on data analyzes, an increase in the average air temperature was found for each time period observed, reaching more than 3ºC higher until the end of this century. Also, in general, there will be an increase in the total annual amount of precipitation in these three periods of time, which might be reduced in the last period (2071-2099), especially for Ubatuba/SP. Although the temperature and precipitation increases are higher in January in nearly all the studied cities, there will be a higher variability in July, showing that extreme events are more likely to occur during winter in nearly all regions. © 2016, Institute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi). All rights reserved.Made available in DSpace on 2019-09-12T16:26:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2016Dias, V., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, BrazilFisch, G., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, Brazil, Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia Aeroespacial (IAE/DCTA), Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço (IAE), São José dos Campos, SP, BrazilFisch, S.T.V., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, BrazilInstitute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi)Revista Ambiente e Aguahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessScopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNITAUinstname:Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU)instacron:UNITAUAltitudinal gradientClimate changePrecipitationTemperatureFuture climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleporORIGINAL2-s2.0-85009740720.pdf2-s2.0-85009740720.pdfapplication/pdf1060959http://repositorio.unitau.br:8080/jspui/bitstream/20.500.11874/1902/1/2-s2.0-85009740720.pdf76a836c4baad9ca2fac7d2df5f92628cMD5120.500.11874/19022019-09-26 20:43:33.486oai:repositorio.unitau.br:20.500.11874/1902Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unitau.br/oai/requestopendoar:2019-09-26T23:43:33Repositório Institucional da UNITAU - Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU)false |
dc.title.en.fl_str_mv |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] |
title |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] |
spellingShingle |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] Dias V. Altitudinal gradient Climate change Precipitation Temperature |
title_short |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] |
title_full |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] |
title_fullStr |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] |
title_sort |
Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: Transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG [Simulações de clima futuro no domínio da mata atlântica: Transecto Ubatuba, SP e Extrema, MG, Brasil] |
author |
Dias V. |
author_facet |
Dias V. Fisch G. Fisch S.T.V. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Fisch G. Fisch S.T.V. |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.scopus.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
57192977408 7005206400 35218615500 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Dias V. Fisch G. Fisch S.T.V. |
dc.subject.other.en.fl_str_mv |
Altitudinal gradient Climate change Precipitation Temperature |
topic |
Altitudinal gradient Climate change Precipitation Temperature |
description |
This article analyzes the climatic differences that occur in a transect that extends from São Paulo State coast to the south of Minas Gerais State, including the municipalities of Ubatuba/SP, Taubaté/SP, Campos do Jordão/SP and Extrema/MG. This territory has a complex topography which contributes to the existence of different types of climate and vegetation. Based on precipitation and temperature data produced by a climate simulation model, it was possible to statistically analyze the future climate of this region heavily transformed by human occupation and by the development of agriculture. Using the regional model ETA (downscaling) in the resolution 20 X 20 km coupled with the general circulation atmosphere-ocean model HadCM3, it was possible to forecast the climate scenarios A1B from IPCC for the time intervals 2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2099 and to compare them with historic data (1961-1990). Based on data analyzes, an increase in the average air temperature was found for each time period observed, reaching more than 3ºC higher until the end of this century. Also, in general, there will be an increase in the total annual amount of precipitation in these three periods of time, which might be reduced in the last period (2071-2099), especially for Ubatuba/SP. Although the temperature and precipitation increases are higher in January in nearly all the studied cities, there will be a higher variability in July, showing that extreme events are more likely to occur during winter in nearly all regions. © 2016, Institute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi). All rights reserved. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2016 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2019-09-12T16:26:09Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2019-09-12T16:26:09Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85009740720&doi=10.4136%2fambi-agua.1894&partnerID=40&md5=04b1c78d4ea1279928e97b1633dcc75f http://repositorio.unitau.br/jspui/handle/20.500.11874/1902 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
10.4136/ambi-agua.1894 |
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1980993X |
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url |
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85009740720&doi=10.4136%2fambi-agua.1894&partnerID=40&md5=04b1c78d4ea1279928e97b1633dcc75f http://repositorio.unitau.br/jspui/handle/20.500.11874/1902 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
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por |
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Revista Ambiente e Agua |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
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openAccess |
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Institute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi) |
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Institute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi) |
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