Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | RACE (Joaçaba. Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/21417 |
Resumo: | The objective of this study is to investigate determinant factors the forecast errors of market analysts for Brazilian fiscal variables. The data for conducting the research was obtained in the Prisma Fiscal, the Ministry of Economy's system of collecting and disclosure of market expectations for fiscal variables. The data collected refer to collection, net revenue and total expenditure, in the period from November 2015 to December 2018. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and z were used to measure the quality of the market analysts' forecast. The use of the z value as a measure of the forecast error is one of the contributions of this research. Among the results obtained, the hypothesis that the temporal horizon interferes in the quality of the forecast was not rejected for horizons of one and two years; the dispersion of forecasts did not show a substantial change; and the optimistic bias hypothesis was not confirmed. It can be concluded that for this sample the temporality is a determinant factor of the forecast error of the market analysts for fiscal variables. The research contributes to the discussion about forecasting error in the areas of Public Financial Management and Public Accounting. |
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Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in BrazilFatores determinantes dos erros de previsão dos analistas de mercado para variáveis fiscais no BrasilForecast errorPublic financesPrisma FiscalMAPE. z.Erro de previsãoFinanças públicasPrisma FiscalMAPE. z.The objective of this study is to investigate determinant factors the forecast errors of market analysts for Brazilian fiscal variables. The data for conducting the research was obtained in the Prisma Fiscal, the Ministry of Economy's system of collecting and disclosure of market expectations for fiscal variables. The data collected refer to collection, net revenue and total expenditure, in the period from November 2015 to December 2018. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and z were used to measure the quality of the market analysts' forecast. The use of the z value as a measure of the forecast error is one of the contributions of this research. Among the results obtained, the hypothesis that the temporal horizon interferes in the quality of the forecast was not rejected for horizons of one and two years; the dispersion of forecasts did not show a substantial change; and the optimistic bias hypothesis was not confirmed. It can be concluded that for this sample the temporality is a determinant factor of the forecast error of the market analysts for fiscal variables. The research contributes to the discussion about forecasting error in the areas of Public Financial Management and Public Accounting.O objetivo deste estudo é investigar fatores determinantes dos erros de previsão dos analistas de mercado para variáveis fiscais brasileiras. Os dados para realização da pesquisa foram obtidos no Prisma Fiscal, o sistema do Ministério da Economia de coleta e divulgação de expectativas do mercado para variáveis fiscais. Os dados coletados se referem à arrecadação, receita líquida e despesa total, no período de novembro de 2015 a dezembro de 2018. O Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) e z foram utilizados para medir a qualidade da previsão dos analistas de mercado. A utilização do valor z como uma medida do erro de previsão é uma das contribuições desta pesquisa. Entre os resultados obtidos, destacam-se: a hipótese de que o horizonte temporal interfere na qualidade da previsão não foi rejeitada para horizontes de um e dois anos; a dispersão das previsões não apresentou alteração substancial; e a hipótese de viés otimista não foi confirmada. Pode-se concluir que, para essa amostra, a temporalidade é um fator determinante do erro de previsão dos analistas de mercado para variáveis fiscais. A pesquisa contribui com a discussão sobre erro de previsão nas áreas de Gestão Financeira Pública e Contabilidade Pública.Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina2020-08-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdftext/htmlhttps://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/2141710.18593/race.21417RACE - Revista de Administração, Contabilidade e Economia; Vol. 19 No. 2 (2020): RACE maio/ago. 2020; 227-248RACE - Revista de Administração, Contabilidade e Economia; v. 19 n. 2 (2020): RACE maio/ago. 2020; 227-2482179-49361678-6483reponame:RACE (Joaçaba. Online)instname:Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina (UNOESC)instacron:UNOESCengporhttps://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/21417/14574https://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/21417/14791Copyright (c) 2020 Karla Roberta Castro Pinheiro Alves, César Augusto Tibúrcio Silva, Francisca Aparecida de Souzainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSouza, Francisca Aparecida deSilva, César Augusto TibúrcioAlves, Karla Roberta Castro Pinheiro2020-10-16T21:43:31Zoai:ojs.periodicos.unoesc.edu.br:article/21417Revistahttps://portalperiodicos.unoesc.edu.br/racehttps://portalperiodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/oairace@unoesc.edu.br||editora@unoesc.edu.br2179-49361678-6483opendoar:2020-10-16T21:43:31RACE (Joaçaba. Online) - Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina (UNOESC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil Fatores determinantes dos erros de previsão dos analistas de mercado para variáveis fiscais no Brasil |
title |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil Souza, Francisca Aparecida de Forecast error Public finances Prisma Fiscal MAPE. z. Erro de previsão Finanças públicas Prisma Fiscal MAPE. z. |
title_short |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil |
title_full |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil |
title_sort |
Factors determining the forecast errors of market analysts for fiscal variables in Brazil |
author |
Souza, Francisca Aparecida de |
author_facet |
Souza, Francisca Aparecida de Silva, César Augusto Tibúrcio Alves, Karla Roberta Castro Pinheiro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Silva, César Augusto Tibúrcio Alves, Karla Roberta Castro Pinheiro |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Souza, Francisca Aparecida de Silva, César Augusto Tibúrcio Alves, Karla Roberta Castro Pinheiro |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Forecast error Public finances Prisma Fiscal MAPE. z. Erro de previsão Finanças públicas Prisma Fiscal MAPE. z. |
topic |
Forecast error Public finances Prisma Fiscal MAPE. z. Erro de previsão Finanças públicas Prisma Fiscal MAPE. z. |
description |
The objective of this study is to investigate determinant factors the forecast errors of market analysts for Brazilian fiscal variables. The data for conducting the research was obtained in the Prisma Fiscal, the Ministry of Economy's system of collecting and disclosure of market expectations for fiscal variables. The data collected refer to collection, net revenue and total expenditure, in the period from November 2015 to December 2018. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and z were used to measure the quality of the market analysts' forecast. The use of the z value as a measure of the forecast error is one of the contributions of this research. Among the results obtained, the hypothesis that the temporal horizon interferes in the quality of the forecast was not rejected for horizons of one and two years; the dispersion of forecasts did not show a substantial change; and the optimistic bias hypothesis was not confirmed. It can be concluded that for this sample the temporality is a determinant factor of the forecast error of the market analysts for fiscal variables. The research contributes to the discussion about forecasting error in the areas of Public Financial Management and Public Accounting. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-08-12 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/21417 10.18593/race.21417 |
url |
https://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/21417 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.18593/race.21417 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/21417/14574 https://periodicos.unoesc.edu.br/race/article/view/21417/14791 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
RACE - Revista de Administração, Contabilidade e Economia; Vol. 19 No. 2 (2020): RACE maio/ago. 2020; 227-248 RACE - Revista de Administração, Contabilidade e Economia; v. 19 n. 2 (2020): RACE maio/ago. 2020; 227-248 2179-4936 1678-6483 reponame:RACE (Joaçaba. Online) instname:Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina (UNOESC) instacron:UNOESC |
instname_str |
Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina (UNOESC) |
instacron_str |
UNOESC |
institution |
UNOESC |
reponame_str |
RACE (Joaçaba. Online) |
collection |
RACE (Joaçaba. Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
RACE (Joaçaba. Online) - Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina (UNOESC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
race@unoesc.edu.br||editora@unoesc.edu.br |
_version_ |
1800220428117999616 |