Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/73124 |
Resumo: | The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem. |
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Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globaisAn analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate changeGeographic information systemGlobal warmingMoniliophthora roreriTheobroma cacaoCrinipellis roreriThe aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.Department of Plant Production Agricultural Science Center Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES), 29500-000, Alegre, ESDepartment of Plant Protection University Estadual Paulista 'Julio de Mesquita Filho' (UNESP), Botucatu, SPDepartment of Plant Protection University Estadual Paulista 'Julio de Mesquita Filho' (UNESP), Botucatu, SPUniversidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES)Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Moraes, Wanderson Buckerde Jesus Junior, Waldir CintraPeixoto, Leonardo de AzevedoMoraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP]Furtado, Edson Luiz [UNESP]da Silva, Lilianne GomesCecílio, Roberto AvelinoAlves, Fábio Ramos2014-05-27T11:26:21Z2014-05-27T11:26:21Z2012-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article30-35application/pdfhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005Summa Phytopathologica, v. 38, n. 1, p. 30-35, 2012.0100-5405http://hdl.handle.net/11449/7312410.1590/S0100-54052012000100005S0100-540520120001000052-s2.0-848597829972-s2.0-84859782997.pdf38459894858333950000-0002-6924-835XScopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengporSumma Phytopathologica0,258info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-04-30T18:07:32Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/73124Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-04-30T18:07:32Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change |
title |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais |
spellingShingle |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais Moraes, Wanderson Bucker Geographic information system Global warming Moniliophthora roreri Theobroma cacao Crinipellis roreri |
title_short |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais |
title_full |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais |
title_fullStr |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais |
title_full_unstemmed |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais |
title_sort |
Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais |
author |
Moraes, Wanderson Bucker |
author_facet |
Moraes, Wanderson Bucker de Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra Peixoto, Leonardo de Azevedo Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP] Furtado, Edson Luiz [UNESP] da Silva, Lilianne Gomes Cecílio, Roberto Avelino Alves, Fábio Ramos |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
de Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra Peixoto, Leonardo de Azevedo Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP] Furtado, Edson Luiz [UNESP] da Silva, Lilianne Gomes Cecílio, Roberto Avelino Alves, Fábio Ramos |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES) Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Moraes, Wanderson Bucker de Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra Peixoto, Leonardo de Azevedo Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP] Furtado, Edson Luiz [UNESP] da Silva, Lilianne Gomes Cecílio, Roberto Avelino Alves, Fábio Ramos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Geographic information system Global warming Moniliophthora roreri Theobroma cacao Crinipellis roreri |
topic |
Geographic information system Global warming Moniliophthora roreri Theobroma cacao Crinipellis roreri |
description |
The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-01-01 2014-05-27T11:26:21Z 2014-05-27T11:26:21Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005 Summa Phytopathologica, v. 38, n. 1, p. 30-35, 2012. 0100-5405 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/73124 10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005 S0100-54052012000100005 2-s2.0-84859782997 2-s2.0-84859782997.pdf 3845989485833395 0000-0002-6924-835X |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/73124 |
identifier_str_mv |
Summa Phytopathologica, v. 38, n. 1, p. 30-35, 2012. 0100-5405 10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005 S0100-54052012000100005 2-s2.0-84859782997 2-s2.0-84859782997.pdf 3845989485833395 0000-0002-6924-835X |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Summa Phytopathologica 0,258 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
30-35 application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1803046846467145728 |