Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.15376/biores.13.3.6497-6509 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/199574 |
Resumo: | The management of variables with uncertainties in stochastic cash flow models related to capital investments in energy crops projects allows, in addition to risk measurement, the adoption of proactive measures that can assure the generation of value to the project. This study analyzes the economic feasibility of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production from sugar cane molasses, under technical and economic uncertainty. The analysis characterizes sugarcane productivity, capital investment, production costs, and costs of cutting, loading, and transport, considered as stochastic variables. For this, the uncertainty was propagated through Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the impact of these variables. The results indicated that the productivity of the crop and the sugarcane price in the conveyor belt are determinant to guarantee the economic value of the investment project. There is a high probability of achieving positive NPV (net present value), in addition, MIRR (modified internal rate of return) is 5% higher than MARR (minimum acceptable rate of return). |
id |
UNSP_24621a8cc0eeb896de5db1e3ac20fb08 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/199574 |
network_acronym_str |
UNSP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository_id_str |
2946 |
spelling |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in BrazilCost estimateNPVRenewable energyStochastic analysisUncertaintyThe management of variables with uncertainties in stochastic cash flow models related to capital investments in energy crops projects allows, in addition to risk measurement, the adoption of proactive measures that can assure the generation of value to the project. This study analyzes the economic feasibility of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production from sugar cane molasses, under technical and economic uncertainty. The analysis characterizes sugarcane productivity, capital investment, production costs, and costs of cutting, loading, and transport, considered as stochastic variables. For this, the uncertainty was propagated through Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the impact of these variables. The results indicated that the productivity of the crop and the sugarcane price in the conveyor belt are determinant to guarantee the economic value of the investment project. There is a high probability of achieving positive NPV (net present value), in addition, MIRR (modified internal rate of return) is 5% higher than MARR (minimum acceptable rate of return).São Paulo State University (Unesp) Campus of Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin, 519São Paulo State University (Unesp) Campus of Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin, 519Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Simões, Danilo [UNESP]Cervi, Ricardo Ghantous [UNESP]Batistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP]2020-12-12T01:43:39Z2020-12-12T01:43:39Z2019-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article6497-6509http://dx.doi.org/10.15376/biores.13.3.6497-6509BioResources, v. 13, n. 3, p. 6497-6509, 2019.1930-2126http://hdl.handle.net/11449/19957410.15376/biores.13.3.6497-65092-s2.0-85074240107Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengBioResourcesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-10-23T08:18:13Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/199574Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T14:24:45.508821Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil |
title |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil Simões, Danilo [UNESP] Cost estimate NPV Renewable energy Stochastic analysis Uncertainty |
title_short |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil |
title_full |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil |
title_sort |
Quantitative analysis of the economic risk of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production: A case study in Brazil |
author |
Simões, Danilo [UNESP] |
author_facet |
Simões, Danilo [UNESP] Cervi, Ricardo Ghantous [UNESP] Batistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cervi, Ricardo Ghantous [UNESP] Batistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP] |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Simões, Danilo [UNESP] Cervi, Ricardo Ghantous [UNESP] Batistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP] |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Cost estimate NPV Renewable energy Stochastic analysis Uncertainty |
topic |
Cost estimate NPV Renewable energy Stochastic analysis Uncertainty |
description |
The management of variables with uncertainties in stochastic cash flow models related to capital investments in energy crops projects allows, in addition to risk measurement, the adoption of proactive measures that can assure the generation of value to the project. This study analyzes the economic feasibility of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production from sugar cane molasses, under technical and economic uncertainty. The analysis characterizes sugarcane productivity, capital investment, production costs, and costs of cutting, loading, and transport, considered as stochastic variables. For this, the uncertainty was propagated through Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the impact of these variables. The results indicated that the productivity of the crop and the sugarcane price in the conveyor belt are determinant to guarantee the economic value of the investment project. There is a high probability of achieving positive NPV (net present value), in addition, MIRR (modified internal rate of return) is 5% higher than MARR (minimum acceptable rate of return). |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-01-01 2020-12-12T01:43:39Z 2020-12-12T01:43:39Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.15376/biores.13.3.6497-6509 BioResources, v. 13, n. 3, p. 6497-6509, 2019. 1930-2126 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/199574 10.15376/biores.13.3.6497-6509 2-s2.0-85074240107 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.15376/biores.13.3.6497-6509 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/199574 |
identifier_str_mv |
BioResources, v. 13, n. 3, p. 6497-6509, 2019. 1930-2126 10.15376/biores.13.3.6497-6509 2-s2.0-85074240107 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
BioResources |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
6497-6509 |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808128356422516736 |