Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/rf.v48i3.56404 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/221098 |
Resumo: | The constant technical and economic analysis of timber harvesting operations is essential and determining, due to the monetary magnitude. Traditionally, these analyses are conducted deterministically, which does not allow obtaining values with probabilities of occurrence. Considering this issue, stochastic models were built in order to analyze the behavior of probabilistic production cost in felling operations with feller-buncher, through the Monte Carlo method. The study was conducted in the Central-West region of the state of São Paulo in a forest of Eucalyptus sp., with six years of age, planted in 3 x 2 m spacing. Technical analysis was based on the study of time and movements, which determined the effective productivity and economy in the hourly operating cost of the feller-buncher and in the production costs of the operation. Due to uncertainties, probability distributions were assigned to these results, which identified the most relevant variables and quantified the probabilities of the production cost. The results demonstrated that the fuel cost had a statistically significant strong positive correlation coefficient (ρs= 0.91) (p-value < 0.01). The hourly cost, consequently, was directly proportional to the production cost of the operation. The production cost of the operation in flat relief was 18% lower than the production cost of the operation in undulating relief. |
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Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncherCostHarvestOperational riskProductivityTime and movementsThe constant technical and economic analysis of timber harvesting operations is essential and determining, due to the monetary magnitude. Traditionally, these analyses are conducted deterministically, which does not allow obtaining values with probabilities of occurrence. Considering this issue, stochastic models were built in order to analyze the behavior of probabilistic production cost in felling operations with feller-buncher, through the Monte Carlo method. The study was conducted in the Central-West region of the state of São Paulo in a forest of Eucalyptus sp., with six years of age, planted in 3 x 2 m spacing. Technical analysis was based on the study of time and movements, which determined the effective productivity and economy in the hourly operating cost of the feller-buncher and in the production costs of the operation. Due to uncertainties, probability distributions were assigned to these results, which identified the most relevant variables and quantified the probabilities of the production cost. The results demonstrated that the fuel cost had a statistically significant strong positive correlation coefficient (ρs= 0.91) (p-value < 0.01). The hourly cost, consequently, was directly proportional to the production cost of the operation. The production cost of the operation in flat relief was 18% lower than the production cost of the operation in undulating relief.State University of São PauloState University of São Paulo School of AgricultureUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)Simões, DaniloMiyajima, Ricardo HideakiTonin, Rodrigo PetrongariFenner, Paulo TorresBatistela, Gislaine Cristina2022-04-28T19:09:13Z2022-04-28T19:09:13Z2018-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article403-412http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/rf.v48i3.56404Floresta, v. 48, n. 3, p. 403-412, 2018.1982-46880015-3826http://hdl.handle.net/11449/22109810.5380/rf.v48i3.564042-s2.0-85048686304Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengFlorestainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2022-04-28T19:09:13Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/221098Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T17:07:25.636637Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher |
title |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher |
spellingShingle |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher Simões, Danilo Cost Harvest Operational risk Productivity Time and movements |
title_short |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher |
title_full |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher |
title_fullStr |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher |
title_full_unstemmed |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher |
title_sort |
Incorporation of uncertainty in technical and economic analysis of a feller-buncher |
author |
Simões, Danilo |
author_facet |
Simões, Danilo Miyajima, Ricardo Hideaki Tonin, Rodrigo Petrongari Fenner, Paulo Torres Batistela, Gislaine Cristina |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Miyajima, Ricardo Hideaki Tonin, Rodrigo Petrongari Fenner, Paulo Torres Batistela, Gislaine Cristina |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Simões, Danilo Miyajima, Ricardo Hideaki Tonin, Rodrigo Petrongari Fenner, Paulo Torres Batistela, Gislaine Cristina |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Cost Harvest Operational risk Productivity Time and movements |
topic |
Cost Harvest Operational risk Productivity Time and movements |
description |
The constant technical and economic analysis of timber harvesting operations is essential and determining, due to the monetary magnitude. Traditionally, these analyses are conducted deterministically, which does not allow obtaining values with probabilities of occurrence. Considering this issue, stochastic models were built in order to analyze the behavior of probabilistic production cost in felling operations with feller-buncher, through the Monte Carlo method. The study was conducted in the Central-West region of the state of São Paulo in a forest of Eucalyptus sp., with six years of age, planted in 3 x 2 m spacing. Technical analysis was based on the study of time and movements, which determined the effective productivity and economy in the hourly operating cost of the feller-buncher and in the production costs of the operation. Due to uncertainties, probability distributions were assigned to these results, which identified the most relevant variables and quantified the probabilities of the production cost. The results demonstrated that the fuel cost had a statistically significant strong positive correlation coefficient (ρs= 0.91) (p-value < 0.01). The hourly cost, consequently, was directly proportional to the production cost of the operation. The production cost of the operation in flat relief was 18% lower than the production cost of the operation in undulating relief. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-01 2022-04-28T19:09:13Z 2022-04-28T19:09:13Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/rf.v48i3.56404 Floresta, v. 48, n. 3, p. 403-412, 2018. 1982-4688 0015-3826 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/221098 10.5380/rf.v48i3.56404 2-s2.0-85048686304 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/rf.v48i3.56404 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/221098 |
identifier_str_mv |
Floresta, v. 48, n. 3, p. 403-412, 2018. 1982-4688 0015-3826 10.5380/rf.v48i3.56404 2-s2.0-85048686304 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Floresta |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
403-412 |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808128758332260352 |