Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/min6030061 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/233659 |
Resumo: | The uncertainty in road transportation of wood is inherent to its operational costs, to the amount of transported wood, to the traveled distance, to its revenue, and more. Although it is not possible to measure this uncertainty fully, it can be quantified by the investment risk, which is the probability and degree of financial loss. The objective of this study is to quantify the financial risk of the investment in wood transportation through Monte Carlo simulation, which uses realistic situations to estimate the operational cost of vehicles used for road transportation of wood. We quantify these uncertainties by assessing financial risk and building pseudorandom scenarios with the Monte Carlo simulation method, in addition to the Net Present Value techniques, the Modified Internal Rate of Return, and the Profitability Index, all commonly used in financial investment projects. The results show that the estimated operational costs are equivalent to the actual ones, along with the evidence that the cost of fuel, the driver’s manpower, and tires are components that mainly increase the degree of financial risk for an investment project in road transportation of wood. In contrast, optimizing the amount of transported wood and maximizing wood transportation cost have a significant and positive correlation with the volume of transported wood and the average price of wood transportation, leading to a reduction in the degree of financial risk. |
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Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguayCash flowEconomic viabilityEucalyptus speciesForest harvestingMonte CarloNet Present ValueTransport costsTruckWood mobilizationThe uncertainty in road transportation of wood is inherent to its operational costs, to the amount of transported wood, to the traveled distance, to its revenue, and more. Although it is not possible to measure this uncertainty fully, it can be quantified by the investment risk, which is the probability and degree of financial loss. The objective of this study is to quantify the financial risk of the investment in wood transportation through Monte Carlo simulation, which uses realistic situations to estimate the operational cost of vehicles used for road transportation of wood. We quantify these uncertainties by assessing financial risk and building pseudorandom scenarios with the Monte Carlo simulation method, in addition to the Net Present Value techniques, the Modified Internal Rate of Return, and the Profitability Index, all commonly used in financial investment projects. The results show that the estimated operational costs are equivalent to the actual ones, along with the evidence that the cost of fuel, the driver’s manpower, and tires are components that mainly increase the degree of financial risk for an investment project in road transportation of wood. In contrast, optimizing the amount of transported wood and maximizing wood transportation cost have a significant and positive correlation with the volume of transported wood and the average price of wood transportation, leading to a reduction in the degree of financial risk.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Department of Production Engineering UNESP Univ Estadual PaulistaDepartment of Forestry Facultad de Agronomia Universidad de la RepúblicaDepartment of Biostatistics UNESP Univ Estadual PaulistaDepartment of Forest Sciences UNESP Univ Estadual PaulistaDepartment of Production Engineering UNESP Univ Estadual PaulistaDepartment of Biostatistics UNESP Univ Estadual PaulistaDepartment of Forest Sciences UNESP Univ Estadual PaulistaUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Universidad de la RepúblicaSimões, Danilo [UNESP]Mosquera, Gustavo Andrés DanilukBatistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP]Passos, José Raimundo de Souza [UNESP]Fenner, Paulo Torres [UNESP]2022-05-01T09:31:09Z2022-05-01T09:31:09Z2016-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.3390/min6030061Minerals, v. 6, n. 3, 2016.2075-163Xhttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/23365910.3390/min60300612-s2.0-85116874329Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengMineralsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-04-30T13:11:02Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/233659Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T18:39:09.958756Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay |
title |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay |
spellingShingle |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay Simões, Danilo [UNESP] Cash flow Economic viability Eucalyptus species Forest harvesting Monte Carlo Net Present Value Transport costs Truck Wood mobilization |
title_short |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay |
title_full |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay |
title_fullStr |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay |
title_sort |
Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in financial risk assessment of road transportation of wood in uruguay |
author |
Simões, Danilo [UNESP] |
author_facet |
Simões, Danilo [UNESP] Mosquera, Gustavo Andrés Daniluk Batistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP] Passos, José Raimundo de Souza [UNESP] Fenner, Paulo Torres [UNESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Mosquera, Gustavo Andrés Daniluk Batistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP] Passos, José Raimundo de Souza [UNESP] Fenner, Paulo Torres [UNESP] |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Universidad de la República |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Simões, Danilo [UNESP] Mosquera, Gustavo Andrés Daniluk Batistela, Gislaine Cristina [UNESP] Passos, José Raimundo de Souza [UNESP] Fenner, Paulo Torres [UNESP] |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Cash flow Economic viability Eucalyptus species Forest harvesting Monte Carlo Net Present Value Transport costs Truck Wood mobilization |
topic |
Cash flow Economic viability Eucalyptus species Forest harvesting Monte Carlo Net Present Value Transport costs Truck Wood mobilization |
description |
The uncertainty in road transportation of wood is inherent to its operational costs, to the amount of transported wood, to the traveled distance, to its revenue, and more. Although it is not possible to measure this uncertainty fully, it can be quantified by the investment risk, which is the probability and degree of financial loss. The objective of this study is to quantify the financial risk of the investment in wood transportation through Monte Carlo simulation, which uses realistic situations to estimate the operational cost of vehicles used for road transportation of wood. We quantify these uncertainties by assessing financial risk and building pseudorandom scenarios with the Monte Carlo simulation method, in addition to the Net Present Value techniques, the Modified Internal Rate of Return, and the Profitability Index, all commonly used in financial investment projects. The results show that the estimated operational costs are equivalent to the actual ones, along with the evidence that the cost of fuel, the driver’s manpower, and tires are components that mainly increase the degree of financial risk for an investment project in road transportation of wood. In contrast, optimizing the amount of transported wood and maximizing wood transportation cost have a significant and positive correlation with the volume of transported wood and the average price of wood transportation, leading to a reduction in the degree of financial risk. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-10-01 2022-05-01T09:31:09Z 2022-05-01T09:31:09Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/min6030061 Minerals, v. 6, n. 3, 2016. 2075-163X http://hdl.handle.net/11449/233659 10.3390/min6030061 2-s2.0-85116874329 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/min6030061 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/233659 |
identifier_str_mv |
Minerals, v. 6, n. 3, 2016. 2075-163X 10.3390/min6030061 2-s2.0-85116874329 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Minerals |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808128960059408384 |