Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6426-9 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/187322 |
Resumo: | Background: The development of a safe and effective vaccine is considered crucial for dengue transmission control since vetor control has been failed; some potential candidates are currently in test, and in this context theoretical studies are necessary to evaluate vaccination strategies such as the age groups that should be vaccinated, the percentage of the population at risk, and the target geographic regions to make dengue control feasible and optimal. Methods: A partial differential model is used to mimics dengue transmission in human population in order to estimate the optimal vaccination age, using data collected from dengue reported cases in ten cities of Brazil from 2001 to 2014. For this purpose, the basic reproduction number of the disease was minimized assuming a single-dose vaccination strategy, equal vaccine efficacy for all circulating serotypes, and no vaccine failure. Numerical methods were used to assess the optimal vaccination age and its confidence age range. Results: The results reveal complex spatial-temporal patterns associated to the disease transmission, highlighting the heterogeneity in defining the target population for dengue vaccination. However, the values obtained for the optimal age of vaccination, as targeting individuals under 13 years old, are compatible with the ones reported in similar studies in Brazil. The results also show that the optimal age for vaccination in general does not match with the age of the highest number of cases. Conclusions: The variation of the optimal age for vaccination across the country reflects heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities, and can be used to define the target population and cities to optimize vaccination strategies in a context of high cost and low quantity of available vaccine. |
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Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccinationAge profileMathematical modelVaccination strategiesBackground: The development of a safe and effective vaccine is considered crucial for dengue transmission control since vetor control has been failed; some potential candidates are currently in test, and in this context theoretical studies are necessary to evaluate vaccination strategies such as the age groups that should be vaccinated, the percentage of the population at risk, and the target geographic regions to make dengue control feasible and optimal. Methods: A partial differential model is used to mimics dengue transmission in human population in order to estimate the optimal vaccination age, using data collected from dengue reported cases in ten cities of Brazil from 2001 to 2014. For this purpose, the basic reproduction number of the disease was minimized assuming a single-dose vaccination strategy, equal vaccine efficacy for all circulating serotypes, and no vaccine failure. Numerical methods were used to assess the optimal vaccination age and its confidence age range. Results: The results reveal complex spatial-temporal patterns associated to the disease transmission, highlighting the heterogeneity in defining the target population for dengue vaccination. However, the values obtained for the optimal age of vaccination, as targeting individuals under 13 years old, are compatible with the ones reported in similar studies in Brazil. The results also show that the optimal age for vaccination in general does not match with the age of the highest number of cases. Conclusions: The variation of the optimal age for vaccination across the country reflects heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities, and can be used to define the target population and cities to optimize vaccination strategies in a context of high cost and low quantity of available vaccine.Instituto de Saúde Coletiva Universidade Federal da BahiaInstituto de Física Universidade Federal da Bahia, Rua Caetano Moura, Campus Universitário de OndinaFacultad de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoSão Paulo State University (UNESP) Institute of Biosciences Department of BiostatisticsSão Paulo State University (UNESP) Institute of Biosciences Department of BiostatisticsUniversidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA)Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Cardim, Luciana L.Pinho, Suani T.R.Teixeira, M. GloriaCosta, M. Conceição N.Esteva, M. LourdesFerreira, Claudia P. [UNESP]2019-10-06T15:32:36Z2019-10-06T15:32:36Z2019-02-06info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6426-9BMC Public Health, v. 19, n. 1, 2019.1471-2458http://hdl.handle.net/11449/18732210.1186/s12889-019-6426-92-s2.0-8506111234420527496982046170000-0002-9404-6098Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengBMC Public Healthinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-11-18T19:11:14Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/187322Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T18:16:09.772749Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination |
title |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination |
spellingShingle |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination Cardim, Luciana L. Age profile Mathematical model Vaccination strategies |
title_short |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination |
title_full |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination |
title_fullStr |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination |
title_full_unstemmed |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination |
title_sort |
Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination |
author |
Cardim, Luciana L. |
author_facet |
Cardim, Luciana L. Pinho, Suani T.R. Teixeira, M. Gloria Costa, M. Conceição N. Esteva, M. Lourdes Ferreira, Claudia P. [UNESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Pinho, Suani T.R. Teixeira, M. Gloria Costa, M. Conceição N. Esteva, M. Lourdes Ferreira, Claudia P. [UNESP] |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cardim, Luciana L. Pinho, Suani T.R. Teixeira, M. Gloria Costa, M. Conceição N. Esteva, M. Lourdes Ferreira, Claudia P. [UNESP] |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Age profile Mathematical model Vaccination strategies |
topic |
Age profile Mathematical model Vaccination strategies |
description |
Background: The development of a safe and effective vaccine is considered crucial for dengue transmission control since vetor control has been failed; some potential candidates are currently in test, and in this context theoretical studies are necessary to evaluate vaccination strategies such as the age groups that should be vaccinated, the percentage of the population at risk, and the target geographic regions to make dengue control feasible and optimal. Methods: A partial differential model is used to mimics dengue transmission in human population in order to estimate the optimal vaccination age, using data collected from dengue reported cases in ten cities of Brazil from 2001 to 2014. For this purpose, the basic reproduction number of the disease was minimized assuming a single-dose vaccination strategy, equal vaccine efficacy for all circulating serotypes, and no vaccine failure. Numerical methods were used to assess the optimal vaccination age and its confidence age range. Results: The results reveal complex spatial-temporal patterns associated to the disease transmission, highlighting the heterogeneity in defining the target population for dengue vaccination. However, the values obtained for the optimal age of vaccination, as targeting individuals under 13 years old, are compatible with the ones reported in similar studies in Brazil. The results also show that the optimal age for vaccination in general does not match with the age of the highest number of cases. Conclusions: The variation of the optimal age for vaccination across the country reflects heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities, and can be used to define the target population and cities to optimize vaccination strategies in a context of high cost and low quantity of available vaccine. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-10-06T15:32:36Z 2019-10-06T15:32:36Z 2019-02-06 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6426-9 BMC Public Health, v. 19, n. 1, 2019. 1471-2458 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/187322 10.1186/s12889-019-6426-9 2-s2.0-85061112344 2052749698204617 0000-0002-9404-6098 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6426-9 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/187322 |
identifier_str_mv |
BMC Public Health, v. 19, n. 1, 2019. 1471-2458 10.1186/s12889-019-6426-9 2-s2.0-85061112344 2052749698204617 0000-0002-9404-6098 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
BMC Public Health |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1808128915056623616 |