A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7072 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/209260 |
Resumo: | This study presents results from an assessment of climate change projections over South America using fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. Change in near-surface temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, integrated water vapour transport (IVT), sea level pressure (SLP), and wind at three pressure levels is quantified across the multi-model suite. Additionally, model agreement for the sign and significance of projected change is assessed within the ensemble. Models are in strong agreement that the highest magnitude of projected warming will be over tropical regions. The CMIP5 models project a decrease in precipitation for all seasons over southern South America, especially along the northern portions of the present-day mid-latitude storm track. This is consistent with a robustly projected poleward shift of the Pacific extratropical high-pressure system and mid-latitude storm track indicated by a systematic increase in SLP and decrease in westerly wind magnitude over the region. Decreased precipitation for the months of September, October, and November is also projected, with strong model agreement, over portions of northern and northeastern Brazil, coincident with decreases in SLP and increases in evapotranspiration. IVT is broadly projected to decrease over southern South America, coincident with the projected poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track, with increases projected in the vicinity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone in spring and summer. Results provide a comprehensive picture of climate change across South America and highlight where model consensus on change is most robust. |
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A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projectclimate changeclimate modelsCMIP5South AmericaThis study presents results from an assessment of climate change projections over South America using fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. Change in near-surface temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, integrated water vapour transport (IVT), sea level pressure (SLP), and wind at three pressure levels is quantified across the multi-model suite. Additionally, model agreement for the sign and significance of projected change is assessed within the ensemble. Models are in strong agreement that the highest magnitude of projected warming will be over tropical regions. The CMIP5 models project a decrease in precipitation for all seasons over southern South America, especially along the northern portions of the present-day mid-latitude storm track. This is consistent with a robustly projected poleward shift of the Pacific extratropical high-pressure system and mid-latitude storm track indicated by a systematic increase in SLP and decrease in westerly wind magnitude over the region. Decreased precipitation for the months of September, October, and November is also projected, with strong model agreement, over portions of northern and northeastern Brazil, coincident with decreases in SLP and increases in evapotranspiration. IVT is broadly projected to decrease over southern South America, coincident with the projected poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track, with increases projected in the vicinity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone in spring and summer. Results provide a comprehensive picture of climate change across South America and highlight where model consensus on change is most robust.U.S. National Science FoundationPortland State Univ, Dept Geog, Portland, OR 97207 USAUniv Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USAUniv Estadual Paulista, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol, Dept Engn Ambiental, Campus Sao Jose Campos, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Estadual Paulista, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol, Dept Engn Ambiental, Campus Sao Jose Campos, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilU.S. National Science Foundation: AGS-1547899Wiley-BlackwellPortland State UnivUniv Calif Los AngelesUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Thaler, ValerieLoikith, Paul C.Mechoso, C. RobertoPampuch, Luana Albertani [UNESP]2021-06-25T11:54:28Z2021-06-25T11:54:28Z2021-03-13info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article18http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7072International Journal Of Climatology. Hoboken: Wiley, 18 p., 2021.0899-8418http://hdl.handle.net/11449/20926010.1002/joc.7072WOS:000628332900001Web of Sciencereponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengInternational Journal Of Climatologyinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-10-23T19:23:41Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/209260Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T23:19:10.079733Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
title |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
spellingShingle |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Thaler, Valerie climate change climate models CMIP5 South America |
title_short |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
title_full |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
title_fullStr |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
title_sort |
A multivariate assessment of climate change projections over South America using the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
author |
Thaler, Valerie |
author_facet |
Thaler, Valerie Loikith, Paul C. Mechoso, C. Roberto Pampuch, Luana Albertani [UNESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Loikith, Paul C. Mechoso, C. Roberto Pampuch, Luana Albertani [UNESP] |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Portland State Univ Univ Calif Los Angeles Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Thaler, Valerie Loikith, Paul C. Mechoso, C. Roberto Pampuch, Luana Albertani [UNESP] |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
climate change climate models CMIP5 South America |
topic |
climate change climate models CMIP5 South America |
description |
This study presents results from an assessment of climate change projections over South America using fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. Change in near-surface temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, integrated water vapour transport (IVT), sea level pressure (SLP), and wind at three pressure levels is quantified across the multi-model suite. Additionally, model agreement for the sign and significance of projected change is assessed within the ensemble. Models are in strong agreement that the highest magnitude of projected warming will be over tropical regions. The CMIP5 models project a decrease in precipitation for all seasons over southern South America, especially along the northern portions of the present-day mid-latitude storm track. This is consistent with a robustly projected poleward shift of the Pacific extratropical high-pressure system and mid-latitude storm track indicated by a systematic increase in SLP and decrease in westerly wind magnitude over the region. Decreased precipitation for the months of September, October, and November is also projected, with strong model agreement, over portions of northern and northeastern Brazil, coincident with decreases in SLP and increases in evapotranspiration. IVT is broadly projected to decrease over southern South America, coincident with the projected poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track, with increases projected in the vicinity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone in spring and summer. Results provide a comprehensive picture of climate change across South America and highlight where model consensus on change is most robust. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-06-25T11:54:28Z 2021-06-25T11:54:28Z 2021-03-13 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7072 International Journal Of Climatology. Hoboken: Wiley, 18 p., 2021. 0899-8418 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/209260 10.1002/joc.7072 WOS:000628332900001 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7072 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/209260 |
identifier_str_mv |
International Journal Of Climatology. Hoboken: Wiley, 18 p., 2021. 0899-8418 10.1002/joc.7072 WOS:000628332900001 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
International Journal Of Climatology |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
18 |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley-Blackwell |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley-Blackwell |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Web of Science reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808129507372040192 |