Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111008 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/196405 |
Resumo: | Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change-especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields-can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease. |
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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazilland use changeemerging diseasespublic healthpolygon-based analysisapproximate Bayesian inferencelatent Gaussian modelsintegrated nested Laplace approximationszero inflationBackground: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change-especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields-can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Royal Society Te Aparangi Rutherford Discovery FellowshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci, Dept Ecol, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, BrazilMassey Univ, Hopkirk Res Inst, Mol Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Lab, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4474, New ZealandUniv Sao Paulo, Ribeirao Preto Med Sch, Ctr Virol Res, Av Bandeirantes 3900, BR-14049900 Ribeirao Preto, BrazilVitalant Res Inst, 270 Masonic Ave, San Francisco, CA 94118 USAUniv Calif San Francisco, Dept Lab Med, 270 Masonic Ave, San Francisco, CA 94118 USAUniv Sao Paulo, Biosci Inst, Dept Ecol, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilInst Chico Mendes Conservacao ICMBio, Carnivoros CENAP, Ctr Nacl Pesquisa & Conservacao Mamiferos, Estr Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi, BR-12952011 Atibaia, BrazilInst Procarnivoros, Av Horacio Neto 1030,Parque Edmundo Zanoni, BR-12945010 Atibaia, BrazilFed Univ Mato Grosso UFMT, Dept Bot & Ecol, BR-78060900 Cuiaba, BrazilUniv Fed Uberlandia, Fac Med, Dept Saude Colet, Ave Para 1720,Campus Umuarama, BR-38405320 Uberlandia, MG, BrazilUniv Estadual Santa Cruz, Dept Ciencias Biol, BR-45662900 Ilheus, BA, BrazilSao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci, Dept Ecol, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, BrazilCAPES: 33004137FAPESP: 2015/17739-4FAPESP: 2017/21816-0FAPESP: 2016/02568-2FAPESP: 2013/25441-0FAPESP: 2017/11666-0FAPESP: 2013/50421-2Royal Society Te Aparangi Rutherford Discovery Fellowship: RDF-MAU1701CNPq: 312045/2013-1CNPq: 312292/2016-3CAPES: 88881.068425/2014-01MdpiUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Massey UnivUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)Vitalant Res InstUniv Calif San FranciscoInst Chico Mendes Conservacao ICMBioInst ProcarnivorosUniversidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)Univ Estadual Santa CruzMuylaert, Renata L. [UNESP]Sabino-Santos Jr, GilbertoPrist, Paula R.Oshima, Julia E. F. [UNESP]Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandao [UNESP]Sobral-Souza, ThadeuOliveira, Stefan Vilges deBovendorp, Ricardo SiqueiraMarshall, Jonathan C.Hayman, David T. S.Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP]2020-12-10T19:43:50Z2020-12-10T19:43:50Z2019-11-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article15http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111008Viruses-basel. Basel: Mdpi, v. 11, n. 11, 15 p., 2019.http://hdl.handle.net/11449/19640510.3390/v11111008WOS:0005022923000364158685235743119Web of Sciencereponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengViruses-baselinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-10-23T10:18:41Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/196405Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T21:20:14.332256Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil |
title |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] land use change emerging diseases public health polygon-based analysis approximate Bayesian inference latent Gaussian models integrated nested Laplace approximations zero inflation |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil |
title_sort |
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil |
author |
Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] |
author_facet |
Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] Sabino-Santos Jr, Gilberto Prist, Paula R. Oshima, Julia E. F. [UNESP] Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandao [UNESP] Sobral-Souza, Thadeu Oliveira, Stefan Vilges de Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira Marshall, Jonathan C. Hayman, David T. S. Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sabino-Santos Jr, Gilberto Prist, Paula R. Oshima, Julia E. F. [UNESP] Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandao [UNESP] Sobral-Souza, Thadeu Oliveira, Stefan Vilges de Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira Marshall, Jonathan C. Hayman, David T. S. Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP] |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) Massey Univ Universidade de São Paulo (USP) Vitalant Res Inst Univ Calif San Francisco Inst Chico Mendes Conservacao ICMBio Inst Procarnivoros Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS) Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) Univ Estadual Santa Cruz |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Muylaert, Renata L. [UNESP] Sabino-Santos Jr, Gilberto Prist, Paula R. Oshima, Julia E. F. [UNESP] Niebuhr, Bernardo Brandao [UNESP] Sobral-Souza, Thadeu Oliveira, Stefan Vilges de Bovendorp, Ricardo Siqueira Marshall, Jonathan C. Hayman, David T. S. Ribeiro, Milton Cezar [UNESP] |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
land use change emerging diseases public health polygon-based analysis approximate Bayesian inference latent Gaussian models integrated nested Laplace approximations zero inflation |
topic |
land use change emerging diseases public health polygon-based analysis approximate Bayesian inference latent Gaussian models integrated nested Laplace approximations zero inflation |
description |
Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change-especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields-can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-11-01 2020-12-10T19:43:50Z 2020-12-10T19:43:50Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111008 Viruses-basel. Basel: Mdpi, v. 11, n. 11, 15 p., 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/196405 10.3390/v11111008 WOS:000502292300036 4158685235743119 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v11111008 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/196405 |
identifier_str_mv |
Viruses-basel. Basel: Mdpi, v. 11, n. 11, 15 p., 2019. 10.3390/v11111008 WOS:000502292300036 4158685235743119 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Viruses-basel |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
15 |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Mdpi |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Mdpi |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Web of Science reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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_version_ |
1808129310947540992 |