The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction?
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9802 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/250379 |
Resumo: | Global changes increasingly worry researchers and policymakers and may have irreversible impacts on Earth's biodiversity. Similar to other phytophysiognomies, natural grasslands suffer from the effects of land use changes and rising temperatures, threatening animal and plant communities. Birds, being very sensitive to these changes, are widely studied and fundamental to understand the dynamics of ecosystems in relation to climate and land use changes. The Campo Miner Geositta poeciloptera is a grassland bird endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado and threatened with extinction that has been widely studied in recent years. We analyze the decrease in its extent of occurrence (EOO) and the effects of climate and land use change to understand the environmental suitability of the species in current and future scenarios. We used 5 common algorithms to produce ecological niche models. For future predictions, we use two general circulation models for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies, an optimistic (ssp245) and a pessimistic (ssp585), plus two land use models focusing on increasing farmlands and reducing native grasslands. The current EOO represents ~45% of that presented by the IUCN EOO. The models generated for the present were satisfactory (TSS = 0.77 and ROC = 0.90) and showed high environmental suitability in areas where the species is currently found and low suitability where it is already extinct. All future scenarios have reduced suitable areas for the species, and the models of a greater increase in temperature and increase in farmlands and a greater decrease in grasslands were the worse. Our results reinforce the need to care about biome awareness disparity and the importance of actively preserving grassy-shrub areas. Apparently, the state of Minas Gerais will be the only stronghold of the species in the coming years; however, the lack of protected areas that guarantee its survival needs attention. |
id |
UNSP_88ee4ee717a8087b430dda049a853d7a |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/250379 |
network_acronym_str |
UNSP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository_id_str |
2946 |
spelling |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction?Campo Minerclimate changesecological niche modelingland use changesthreatened speciesGlobal changes increasingly worry researchers and policymakers and may have irreversible impacts on Earth's biodiversity. Similar to other phytophysiognomies, natural grasslands suffer from the effects of land use changes and rising temperatures, threatening animal and plant communities. Birds, being very sensitive to these changes, are widely studied and fundamental to understand the dynamics of ecosystems in relation to climate and land use changes. The Campo Miner Geositta poeciloptera is a grassland bird endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado and threatened with extinction that has been widely studied in recent years. We analyze the decrease in its extent of occurrence (EOO) and the effects of climate and land use change to understand the environmental suitability of the species in current and future scenarios. We used 5 common algorithms to produce ecological niche models. For future predictions, we use two general circulation models for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies, an optimistic (ssp245) and a pessimistic (ssp585), plus two land use models focusing on increasing farmlands and reducing native grasslands. The current EOO represents ~45% of that presented by the IUCN EOO. The models generated for the present were satisfactory (TSS = 0.77 and ROC = 0.90) and showed high environmental suitability in areas where the species is currently found and low suitability where it is already extinct. All future scenarios have reduced suitable areas for the species, and the models of a greater increase in temperature and increase in farmlands and a greater decrease in grasslands were the worse. Our results reinforce the need to care about biome awareness disparity and the importance of actively preserving grassy-shrub areas. Apparently, the state of Minas Gerais will be the only stronghold of the species in the coming years; however, the lack of protected areas that guarantee its survival needs attention.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Companhia Energética de Minas GeraisCoordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel- BrazilPesquisa & Desenvolvimento of Agencia Nacional de Energia EletricaPós-graduação em Ecologia Conservação e Manejo da Vida Silvestre Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisLaboratório de Biologia Animal Instituto de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde Universidade Federal de ViçosaPós-graduação em Biociências Universidade Estadual PaulistaDepartamento de Genética Ecologia e Evolução Instituto de Ciências Biológicas Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Posgrad Ecol Conservacao & Manejo Vida Silvestre, Belo Horizonte, BrazilUniv Fed Vicosa, Inst Ciencias Biol & Saude, Lab Biol Anim, Florestal, BrazilUniv Estadual Paulista, Posgrad Biociencias, Assis, BrazilUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Inst Ciencias Biol, Dept Genet Ecol & Evolucao, Belo Horizonte, BrazilUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Inst Ciencias Biol, Dept Genet Ecol & Evolucao, Av Pres Antonio Carlos 6627, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, BrazilPós-graduação em Biociências Universidade Estadual PaulistaUniv Estadual Paulista, Posgrad Biociencias, Assis, BrazilCNPq: 316960/2021-7CNPq: 305739/2019-0Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais: GT599Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel- Brazil: 001Wiley-BlackwellUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Meireles, Ricardo C.Lopes, Leonardo E.Brito, Gustavo R. [UNESP]Solar, Ricardo2023-07-29T12:56:12Z2023-07-29T11:48:24Z2023-07-29T12:56:12Z2023-07-29T11:48:24Z2023-02-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article12http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9802Ecology and Evolution, v. 13, n. 2, 2023.Ecology and Evolution. Hoboken: Wiley, v. 13, n. 2, 12 p., 2023.2045-7758http://hdl.handle.net/11449/25037910.1002/ece3.9802WOS:0009332801000012-s2.0-85149908092ScopusWeb of Sciencereponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengEcology and Evolutioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2023-08-21T17:59:58Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/250379Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462023-08-21T17:59:58Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? |
title |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? |
spellingShingle |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? Meireles, Ricardo C. Campo Miner climate changes ecological niche modeling land use changes threatened species |
title_short |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? |
title_full |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? |
title_fullStr |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? |
title_full_unstemmed |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? |
title_sort |
The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction? |
author |
Meireles, Ricardo C. |
author_facet |
Meireles, Ricardo C. Lopes, Leonardo E. Brito, Gustavo R. [UNESP] Solar, Ricardo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Lopes, Leonardo E. Brito, Gustavo R. [UNESP] Solar, Ricardo |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Meireles, Ricardo C. Lopes, Leonardo E. Brito, Gustavo R. [UNESP] Solar, Ricardo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Campo Miner climate changes ecological niche modeling land use changes threatened species |
topic |
Campo Miner climate changes ecological niche modeling land use changes threatened species |
description |
Global changes increasingly worry researchers and policymakers and may have irreversible impacts on Earth's biodiversity. Similar to other phytophysiognomies, natural grasslands suffer from the effects of land use changes and rising temperatures, threatening animal and plant communities. Birds, being very sensitive to these changes, are widely studied and fundamental to understand the dynamics of ecosystems in relation to climate and land use changes. The Campo Miner Geositta poeciloptera is a grassland bird endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado and threatened with extinction that has been widely studied in recent years. We analyze the decrease in its extent of occurrence (EOO) and the effects of climate and land use change to understand the environmental suitability of the species in current and future scenarios. We used 5 common algorithms to produce ecological niche models. For future predictions, we use two general circulation models for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies, an optimistic (ssp245) and a pessimistic (ssp585), plus two land use models focusing on increasing farmlands and reducing native grasslands. The current EOO represents ~45% of that presented by the IUCN EOO. The models generated for the present were satisfactory (TSS = 0.77 and ROC = 0.90) and showed high environmental suitability in areas where the species is currently found and low suitability where it is already extinct. All future scenarios have reduced suitable areas for the species, and the models of a greater increase in temperature and increase in farmlands and a greater decrease in grasslands were the worse. Our results reinforce the need to care about biome awareness disparity and the importance of actively preserving grassy-shrub areas. Apparently, the state of Minas Gerais will be the only stronghold of the species in the coming years; however, the lack of protected areas that guarantee its survival needs attention. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-07-29T12:56:12Z 2023-07-29T11:48:24Z 2023-07-29T12:56:12Z 2023-07-29T11:48:24Z 2023-02-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9802 Ecology and Evolution, v. 13, n. 2, 2023. Ecology and Evolution. Hoboken: Wiley, v. 13, n. 2, 12 p., 2023. 2045-7758 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/250379 10.1002/ece3.9802 WOS:000933280100001 2-s2.0-85149908092 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9802 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/250379 |
identifier_str_mv |
Ecology and Evolution, v. 13, n. 2, 2023. Ecology and Evolution. Hoboken: Wiley, v. 13, n. 2, 12 p., 2023. 2045-7758 10.1002/ece3.9802 WOS:000933280100001 2-s2.0-85149908092 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Ecology and Evolution |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
12 |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley-Blackwell |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley-Blackwell |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus Web of Science reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799965748679933952 |