Avaliação da chuva produzida pelo modelo eta de previsão do tempo para o Estado de São Paulo com uso de radar meteorológico para aplicações agrícolas

• Autor(a) principal: Bassan, José Marcio [UNESP]
• Data de Publicação: 2014
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/110966
• topic: Radar meteorológico; Agricultura; Irrigação; Radar meteorology

This work aims to determine the potential use of rainfall forecasts provided by the numerical model of weather prediction ETA, especially regarding irrigation in agriculture. The ETA model was configured with Kain - Fritsch convection parameterization and run with 10km x 10km horizontal resolution, and 38 vertical levels. The ETA 24h accumulated rainfall was compared to radar data precipitation from the Institute of Meteorological Research of the São Paulo State University (IPMet/UNESP), which were obtained using the Z - R Rosenfeld relationship that proved to be more appropriate than others, such as Marshal - Palmer. The systematic error of the radar precipitation data was corrected by using a linea r regression approximation, which statistically adjust these data to gauge rainfall data from three weather stations available. Some applications of this equation to practical problems solution are suggested, such as the calculation of monthly precipitatio n for climate monitoring in the radar resolution. This procedure allowed reducing the chosen ZR tend to underestimate precipitation. The verification result shows that when one considers only the occurrence of the rain phenomenon, regardless its amount, t he percentage of the success of ETA is around 60% for the first two days of the forecast and slightly lower for the third day. However, when the rainfall amount of the model is confronted with the radar precipitation, the percentage of the success most of time does not reach 50%, suggesting the need for substantial model improvement before being considered a useful source for issues related to irrigation. Besides the verification of the ETA model, the work presents a methodology that could be used in the e valuation of other models, in order to verify their potential in agriculture ...