Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Firpo, Mári Ândrea Feldman
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Guimarães, Bruno dos Santos, Dantas, Leydson Galvíncio, Silva, Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da, Alves, Lincoln Muniz, Chadwick, Robin, Llopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP], Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
Texto Completo: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/246176
Resumo: Brazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the skill of the state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating regional climate variability over Brazil during the present-day period. Different statistical analyses were employed to identify systematic biases and to choose the best subset of models to reduce uncertainties. The results show that models perform better for winter than summer precipitation, consistent with previous results in the literature. In both seasons, the worst performances were found for Northeast Brazil. Results also show that the models present deficiencies in simulating temperature over Amazonian regions. A good overall performance for precipitation and temperature in the La Plata Basin was found, in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the models with the highest ability in simulating monthly rainfall, aggregating all five Brazilian regions, were HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and INM-CM4-8, while for monthly temperatures, they were CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, and HadGEM3-GC31-MM. The application of these results spans both past and possible future climates, supporting climate impact studies and providing information to climate policy and adaptation activities.
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spelling Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazilassessmentclimate changeclimate modelingCMIP6precipitationSouth AmericatemperatureBrazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the skill of the state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating regional climate variability over Brazil during the present-day period. Different statistical analyses were employed to identify systematic biases and to choose the best subset of models to reduce uncertainties. The results show that models perform better for winter than summer precipitation, consistent with previous results in the literature. In both seasons, the worst performances were found for Northeast Brazil. Results also show that the models present deficiencies in simulating temperature over Amazonian regions. A good overall performance for precipitation and temperature in the La Plata Basin was found, in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the models with the highest ability in simulating monthly rainfall, aggregating all five Brazilian regions, were HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and INM-CM4-8, while for monthly temperatures, they were CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, and HadGEM3-GC31-MM. The application of these results spans both past and possible future climates, supporting climate impact studies and providing information to climate policy and adaptation activities.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e ComunicaçõesInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)Unidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade Federal de Campina GrandeMet Office Hadley CentreGlobal Systems Institute Department of Mathematics University of ExeterUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)Universidade Federal de Campina GrandeMet Office Hadley CentreUniversity of ExeterUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Firpo, Mári Ândrea FeldmanGuimarães, Bruno dos SantosDantas, Leydson GalvíncioSilva, Marcelo Guatura Barbosa daAlves, Lincoln MunizChadwick, RobinLlopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP]Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de2023-07-29T12:33:45Z2023-07-29T12:33:45Z2022-09-21info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499Frontiers in Climate, v. 4.2624-9553http://hdl.handle.net/11449/24617610.3389/fclim.2022.9484992-s2.0-85140769175Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengFrontiers in Climateinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2023-07-29T12:33:45Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/246176Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T15:10:04.314451Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
title Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
spellingShingle Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
Firpo, Mári Ândrea Feldman
assessment
climate change
climate modeling
CMIP6
precipitation
South America
temperature
title_short Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
title_full Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
title_fullStr Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
title_sort Assessment of CMIP6 models' performance in simulating present-day climate in Brazil
author Firpo, Mári Ândrea Feldman
author_facet Firpo, Mári Ândrea Feldman
Guimarães, Bruno dos Santos
Dantas, Leydson Galvíncio
Silva, Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da
Alves, Lincoln Muniz
Chadwick, Robin
Llopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP]
Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de
author_role author
author2 Guimarães, Bruno dos Santos
Dantas, Leydson Galvíncio
Silva, Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da
Alves, Lincoln Muniz
Chadwick, Robin
Llopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP]
Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
Universidade Federal de Campina Grande
Met Office Hadley Centre
University of Exeter
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Firpo, Mári Ândrea Feldman
Guimarães, Bruno dos Santos
Dantas, Leydson Galvíncio
Silva, Marcelo Guatura Barbosa da
Alves, Lincoln Muniz
Chadwick, Robin
Llopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP]
Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv assessment
climate change
climate modeling
CMIP6
precipitation
South America
temperature
topic assessment
climate change
climate modeling
CMIP6
precipitation
South America
temperature
description Brazil is one of the most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events, especially in recent decades, where these events posed a substantial threat to the socio-ecological system. This work underpins the provision of actionable information for society's response to climate variability and change. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the skill of the state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating regional climate variability over Brazil during the present-day period. Different statistical analyses were employed to identify systematic biases and to choose the best subset of models to reduce uncertainties. The results show that models perform better for winter than summer precipitation, consistent with previous results in the literature. In both seasons, the worst performances were found for Northeast Brazil. Results also show that the models present deficiencies in simulating temperature over Amazonian regions. A good overall performance for precipitation and temperature in the La Plata Basin was found, in agreement with previous studies. Finally, the models with the highest ability in simulating monthly rainfall, aggregating all five Brazilian regions, were HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and INM-CM4-8, while for monthly temperatures, they were CMCC-ESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, BCC-ESM1, and HadGEM3-GC31-MM. The application of these results spans both past and possible future climates, supporting climate impact studies and providing information to climate policy and adaptation activities.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-09-21
2023-07-29T12:33:45Z
2023-07-29T12:33:45Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499
Frontiers in Climate, v. 4.
2624-9553
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/246176
10.3389/fclim.2022.948499
2-s2.0-85140769175
url http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.948499
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/246176
identifier_str_mv Frontiers in Climate, v. 4.
2624-9553
10.3389/fclim.2022.948499
2-s2.0-85140769175
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers in Climate
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Scopus
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP
instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
instacron:UNESP
instname_str Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
instacron_str UNESP
institution UNESP
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UNESP
collection Repositório Institucional da UNESP
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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