Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/221470 |
Resumo: | Agricultural activity is largely influenced by climatic conditions. Rainfall is essential for crop production, and precipitation events also interfere with soil preparation, planting, application of pesticides and harvesting. Weather forecast models are tools to facilitate decision making for agricultural activities, hence high accuracy is desired. Farmers often criticize the accuracy of weather forecasts, which sometimes fail to predict precipitation events, leading to yield loss and environmental harm. In this study, precipitation forecasts of the Eta Model were evaluated for 28 of Brazil’s most productive sugarcane areas, considering a grid of 15 × 15 km. Using a combination of different indicators of forecast success, observed and forecasted daily precipitation data were compared for consecutive days of all 10-day periods in a course of 6 years (2005–2010). Skill scores and performance diagrams based on the indicators were used to evaluate the goodness and robustness of the model forecasts. The Eta Model forecasts showed overall accuracies ranging between 55 and 71% for the Atlantic forest biomes (located North-West and South-East of São Paulo) and the Cerrado biomes (located in the Goiás State and in the Center-North São Paulo State), respectively. The forecasts were most reliable for up to 4 days, showing an accuracy of 60%. Forecasts for periods of more than 4 days had an average accuracy of 40–50%. The probability of detecting rainfall correctly was the strongest characteristic of Eta Model, with more than 70% hits. |
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Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecastsAgricultural activity is largely influenced by climatic conditions. Rainfall is essential for crop production, and precipitation events also interfere with soil preparation, planting, application of pesticides and harvesting. Weather forecast models are tools to facilitate decision making for agricultural activities, hence high accuracy is desired. Farmers often criticize the accuracy of weather forecasts, which sometimes fail to predict precipitation events, leading to yield loss and environmental harm. In this study, precipitation forecasts of the Eta Model were evaluated for 28 of Brazil’s most productive sugarcane areas, considering a grid of 15 × 15 km. Using a combination of different indicators of forecast success, observed and forecasted daily precipitation data were compared for consecutive days of all 10-day periods in a course of 6 years (2005–2010). Skill scores and performance diagrams based on the indicators were used to evaluate the goodness and robustness of the model forecasts. The Eta Model forecasts showed overall accuracies ranging between 55 and 71% for the Atlantic forest biomes (located North-West and South-East of São Paulo) and the Cerrado biomes (located in the Goiás State and in the Center-North São Paulo State), respectively. The forecasts were most reliable for up to 4 days, showing an accuracy of 60%. Forecasts for periods of more than 4 days had an average accuracy of 40–50%. The probability of detecting rainfall correctly was the strongest characteristic of Eta Model, with more than 70% hits.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Department of Mathematical Sciences Faculty of Agricultural and Veterinarian Sciences University of São Paulo State, Prof. Paulo Donato CastellaneFlemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200ECenter for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies National Institute for Space Research Av. dos AstronautasUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO)KU LeuvenAv. dos AstronautasMoreto, Victor B.Rolim, Glauco de S.Esteves, João T.Vanuytrecht, ElineChou, Sin Chan2022-04-28T19:28:37Z2022-04-28T19:28:37Z2021-04-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article181-191http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, v. 133, n. 2, p. 181-191, 2021.1436-50650177-7971http://hdl.handle.net/11449/22147010.1007/s00703-020-00738-12-s2.0-85084211860Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengMeteorology and Atmospheric Physicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2022-04-28T19:28:37Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/221470Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T16:27:45.731258Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts |
title |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts |
spellingShingle |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts Moreto, Victor B. |
title_short |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts |
title_full |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts |
title_sort |
Sugarcane decision-making support using Eta Model precipitation forecasts |
author |
Moreto, Victor B. |
author_facet |
Moreto, Victor B. Rolim, Glauco de S. Esteves, João T. Vanuytrecht, Eline Chou, Sin Chan |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Rolim, Glauco de S. Esteves, João T. Vanuytrecht, Eline Chou, Sin Chan |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) KU Leuven Av. dos Astronautas |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Moreto, Victor B. Rolim, Glauco de S. Esteves, João T. Vanuytrecht, Eline Chou, Sin Chan |
description |
Agricultural activity is largely influenced by climatic conditions. Rainfall is essential for crop production, and precipitation events also interfere with soil preparation, planting, application of pesticides and harvesting. Weather forecast models are tools to facilitate decision making for agricultural activities, hence high accuracy is desired. Farmers often criticize the accuracy of weather forecasts, which sometimes fail to predict precipitation events, leading to yield loss and environmental harm. In this study, precipitation forecasts of the Eta Model were evaluated for 28 of Brazil’s most productive sugarcane areas, considering a grid of 15 × 15 km. Using a combination of different indicators of forecast success, observed and forecasted daily precipitation data were compared for consecutive days of all 10-day periods in a course of 6 years (2005–2010). Skill scores and performance diagrams based on the indicators were used to evaluate the goodness and robustness of the model forecasts. The Eta Model forecasts showed overall accuracies ranging between 55 and 71% for the Atlantic forest biomes (located North-West and South-East of São Paulo) and the Cerrado biomes (located in the Goiás State and in the Center-North São Paulo State), respectively. The forecasts were most reliable for up to 4 days, showing an accuracy of 60%. Forecasts for periods of more than 4 days had an average accuracy of 40–50%. The probability of detecting rainfall correctly was the strongest characteristic of Eta Model, with more than 70% hits. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-04-01 2022-04-28T19:28:37Z 2022-04-28T19:28:37Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1 Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, v. 133, n. 2, p. 181-191, 2021. 1436-5065 0177-7971 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/221470 10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1 2-s2.0-85084211860 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/221470 |
identifier_str_mv |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, v. 133, n. 2, p. 181-191, 2021. 1436-5065 0177-7971 10.1007/s00703-020-00738-1 2-s2.0-85084211860 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
181-191 |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808128656573202432 |