Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyac043 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/237572 |
Resumo: | Global change imposes multiple challenges on species and, thus, a reliable prediction of current and future vulnerability of species must consider multiple stressors and intrinsic traits of species. Climate, physiology, and forest cover, for example, are required to evaluate threat to thermolabile forest-dependent species, such as sloths (Bradypus spp.; Mammalia: Xenarthra). Here, we estimated future changes in the distribution of three sloth species using a metabolic-hybrid model focused on climate (climatic only, i.e., CO approach) and adding forest cover constraints to distribution of species (climate plus land cover, i.e., CL approach). We used an innovative method to generate estimates of physiological parameters for endotherms, validated with field data. The CF approach predicted a future net expansion of distribution of B. torquatus and B. variegatus, and a future net contraction of distribution of B. tridactylus. The inclusion of forest cover constraints, however, reversed the predictions for B. torquatus, with a predicted net distribution contraction. It also reduced expansion of B. variegatus, although still showing a large net expansion. Thus, B. variegatus is not predicted to be threatened in the future; B. tridactylus emerges as the species most vulnerable to climate change, but with no considerable forest losses, while B. torquatus shows the opposite pattern. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating multiple stressors in predictive models in general. To increase resilience of species to climate change, it is key to control deforestation in the Amazon for B. tridactylus, and to promote reforestation in the Atlantic Forest for B. torquatus. |
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Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate changeBradypusEcological niche modelsEcophysiological modelsForest coverHybrid modelsXenarthraGlobal change imposes multiple challenges on species and, thus, a reliable prediction of current and future vulnerability of species must consider multiple stressors and intrinsic traits of species. Climate, physiology, and forest cover, for example, are required to evaluate threat to thermolabile forest-dependent species, such as sloths (Bradypus spp.; Mammalia: Xenarthra). Here, we estimated future changes in the distribution of three sloth species using a metabolic-hybrid model focused on climate (climatic only, i.e., CO approach) and adding forest cover constraints to distribution of species (climate plus land cover, i.e., CL approach). We used an innovative method to generate estimates of physiological parameters for endotherms, validated with field data. The CF approach predicted a future net expansion of distribution of B. torquatus and B. variegatus, and a future net contraction of distribution of B. tridactylus. The inclusion of forest cover constraints, however, reversed the predictions for B. torquatus, with a predicted net distribution contraction. It also reduced expansion of B. variegatus, although still showing a large net expansion. Thus, B. variegatus is not predicted to be threatened in the future; B. tridactylus emerges as the species most vulnerable to climate change, but with no considerable forest losses, while B. torquatus shows the opposite pattern. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating multiple stressors in predictive models in general. To increase resilience of species to climate change, it is key to control deforestation in the Amazon for B. tridactylus, and to promote reforestation in the Atlantic Forest for B. torquatus.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)National Science Foundation (NSF), MRIFinanciadora de Estudos e ProjetosInstituto Nacional de Ciencia e Tecnologia (INCT) em Ecologia, Evolucao e Conservacao da Biodiversidade - Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacoes (MCTI)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Goias (FAPEG)Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro UFRJ, Programa Posgrad Ecol PPGE, 550 Pedro Calmon, BR-21941901 Rio De Janeiro, RJ, BrazilUniv Calif UCSC, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, 1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USABen Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Sede Boqer Campus, IL-8499000 Boqer, Negev, IsraelUniv Estadual Santa Cruz, Dept Biol Sci, Appl Ecol & Conservat Lab, Rodovia Jorge Amado,Km 16, BR-45662900 Ilheus, BA, BrazilUniv Estadual Paulista UNESP, Dept Biodivers, Lab Anim Physiol, 1515 Av 24 A Bela Vista, BR-13506752 Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Fed Rio de Janeiro UFRJ, Inst Biol, Dept Ecol, 550 Pedro Calmon, BR-21941901 Rio De Janeiro, BrazilUniv Estadual Paulista UNESP, Dept Biodivers, Lab Anim Physiol, 1515 Av 24 A Bela Vista, BR-13506752 Sao Paulo, BrazilCAPES: 000CNPq: 304309/2018-4FAPERJ: E-26/202.647/2019FAPESP: 2014/16320-7National Science Foundation (NSF), MRI: AST 1828315Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos: 01.13.0353-00Instituto Nacional de Ciencia e Tecnologia (INCT) em Ecologia, Evolucao e Conservacao da Biodiversidade - Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacoes (MCTI): 465610/2014-5Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Goias (FAPEG): 201810267000023Oxford Univ Press IncUniversidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)Univ Calif UCSCBen Gurion Univ NegevUniv Estadual Santa CruzUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Tourinho, LuaraSinervo, BarryCaetano, Gabriel Henrique De OliveriraGine, Gaston Andres FernandezSantos, Cinthya Chiva dosCruz-Neto, Ariovaldo Pereira [UNESP]Vale, Mariana M.2022-11-30T13:38:57Z2022-11-30T13:38:57Z2022-06-02info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article755-766http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyac043Journal Of Mammalogy. Cary: Oxford Univ Press Inc, v. 103, n. 4, p. 755-766, 2022.0022-2372http://hdl.handle.net/11449/23757210.1093/jmammal/gyac043WOS:000804715200001Web of Sciencereponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengJournal Of Mammalogyinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2022-11-30T13:38:57Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/237572Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462022-11-30T13:38:57Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change |
title |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change |
spellingShingle |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change Tourinho, Luara Bradypus Ecological niche models Ecophysiological models Forest cover Hybrid models Xenarthra |
title_short |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change |
title_full |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change |
title_sort |
Integrating climate, ecophysiology, and forest cover to estimate the vulnerability of sloths to climate change |
author |
Tourinho, Luara |
author_facet |
Tourinho, Luara Sinervo, Barry Caetano, Gabriel Henrique De Oliverira Gine, Gaston Andres Fernandez Santos, Cinthya Chiva dos Cruz-Neto, Ariovaldo Pereira [UNESP] Vale, Mariana M. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sinervo, Barry Caetano, Gabriel Henrique De Oliverira Gine, Gaston Andres Fernandez Santos, Cinthya Chiva dos Cruz-Neto, Ariovaldo Pereira [UNESP] Vale, Mariana M. |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) Univ Calif UCSC Ben Gurion Univ Negev Univ Estadual Santa Cruz Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Tourinho, Luara Sinervo, Barry Caetano, Gabriel Henrique De Oliverira Gine, Gaston Andres Fernandez Santos, Cinthya Chiva dos Cruz-Neto, Ariovaldo Pereira [UNESP] Vale, Mariana M. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Bradypus Ecological niche models Ecophysiological models Forest cover Hybrid models Xenarthra |
topic |
Bradypus Ecological niche models Ecophysiological models Forest cover Hybrid models Xenarthra |
description |
Global change imposes multiple challenges on species and, thus, a reliable prediction of current and future vulnerability of species must consider multiple stressors and intrinsic traits of species. Climate, physiology, and forest cover, for example, are required to evaluate threat to thermolabile forest-dependent species, such as sloths (Bradypus spp.; Mammalia: Xenarthra). Here, we estimated future changes in the distribution of three sloth species using a metabolic-hybrid model focused on climate (climatic only, i.e., CO approach) and adding forest cover constraints to distribution of species (climate plus land cover, i.e., CL approach). We used an innovative method to generate estimates of physiological parameters for endotherms, validated with field data. The CF approach predicted a future net expansion of distribution of B. torquatus and B. variegatus, and a future net contraction of distribution of B. tridactylus. The inclusion of forest cover constraints, however, reversed the predictions for B. torquatus, with a predicted net distribution contraction. It also reduced expansion of B. variegatus, although still showing a large net expansion. Thus, B. variegatus is not predicted to be threatened in the future; B. tridactylus emerges as the species most vulnerable to climate change, but with no considerable forest losses, while B. torquatus shows the opposite pattern. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating multiple stressors in predictive models in general. To increase resilience of species to climate change, it is key to control deforestation in the Amazon for B. tridactylus, and to promote reforestation in the Atlantic Forest for B. torquatus. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-30T13:38:57Z 2022-11-30T13:38:57Z 2022-06-02 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyac043 Journal Of Mammalogy. Cary: Oxford Univ Press Inc, v. 103, n. 4, p. 755-766, 2022. 0022-2372 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/237572 10.1093/jmammal/gyac043 WOS:000804715200001 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyac043 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/237572 |
identifier_str_mv |
Journal Of Mammalogy. Cary: Oxford Univ Press Inc, v. 103, n. 4, p. 755-766, 2022. 0022-2372 10.1093/jmammal/gyac043 WOS:000804715200001 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Journal Of Mammalogy |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
755-766 |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Oxford Univ Press Inc |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Oxford Univ Press Inc |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Web of Science reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799964422868828160 |