The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262473 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/223284 |
Resumo: | Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in the Brazilian Cerrado? b) how do different regions of the tropical savanna biome present distinct patterns for total dengue cases and vegetation loss? c) what is the projection of a future scenario of deforestation and an increased number of dengue cases in 2030? Thus, this study aimed to assess the relationship between loss of native vegetation in the Cerrado and dengue infection. In this paper, we quantify the entire deforested area and dengue infection cases from 2001 to 2019. For data analyses, we used Poisson generalized linear model, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, non-parametric statistics, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict loss of vegetation and fever dengue cases for the next decade. Cluster analysis revealed the formation of four clusters among the states. Our results showed significant increases in loss of native vegetation in all states, with the exception of Piauí. As for dengue cases, there were increases in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso. Based on projections for 2030, Minas Gerais will register about 4,000 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, São Paulo 750 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and Mato Grosso 500 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants. To reduce these projections, Brazil will need to control deforestation and implement public health, environmental and social policies, requiring a joint effort from all spheres of society. |
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The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection?Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in the Brazilian Cerrado? b) how do different regions of the tropical savanna biome present distinct patterns for total dengue cases and vegetation loss? c) what is the projection of a future scenario of deforestation and an increased number of dengue cases in 2030? Thus, this study aimed to assess the relationship between loss of native vegetation in the Cerrado and dengue infection. In this paper, we quantify the entire deforested area and dengue infection cases from 2001 to 2019. For data analyses, we used Poisson generalized linear model, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, non-parametric statistics, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict loss of vegetation and fever dengue cases for the next decade. Cluster analysis revealed the formation of four clusters among the states. Our results showed significant increases in loss of native vegetation in all states, with the exception of Piauí. As for dengue cases, there were increases in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso. Based on projections for 2030, Minas Gerais will register about 4,000 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, São Paulo 750 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and Mato Grosso 500 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants. To reduce these projections, Brazil will need to control deforestation and implement public health, environmental and social policies, requiring a joint effort from all spheres of society.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Graduate Program in Agronomy–Cropping Systems São Paulo State University (Unesp), SPGraduate Program in Geography São Paulo State University (Unesp) School of Technology and Sciences, SPFederal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Chapadão do Sul, MSFederal University of Acre (UFAC)Graduate Program in Agronomy State University of Londrina (Uel), PRGraduate Program in Sciences—Nuclear Energy in Agriculture Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura São Paulo UniversitySão Paulo State University (Unesp) Engineering School, SPGraduate Program in Geography Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Três Lagoas, MSGraduate Program in Agronomy–Cropping Systems São Paulo State University (Unesp), SPGraduate Program in Geography São Paulo State University (Unesp) School of Technology and Sciences, SPSão Paulo State University (Unesp) Engineering School, SPCNPq: 303767/2020-0Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)Federal University of Acre (UFAC)Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL)Universidade de São Paulo (USP)da Silva, Arlindo Ananias Pereira [UNESP]Franquelino, Adriano Roberto [UNESP]Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo [UNESP]Montanari, Rafael [UNESP]Faria, Glaucia Amorim [UNESP]da Silva, Cristóvão Henrique Ribeiroda Silva, Dayane Bortoloto [UNESP]Júnior, Walter Aparecido RibeiroMuchalak, FrancieleSouza, Kassia Maria Cruz [UNESP]da Silva, Marcos Henrique PrudencioTeodoro, Larissa Pereira Ribeiro2022-04-28T19:49:42Z2022-04-28T19:49:42Z2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262473PLoS ONE, v. 17, n. 1 January, 2022.1932-6203http://hdl.handle.net/11449/22328410.1371/journal.pone.02624732-s2.0-85123064380Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengPLoS ONEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2022-04-28T19:49:42Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/223284Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T22:30:20.992343Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? |
title |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? |
spellingShingle |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? da Silva, Arlindo Ananias Pereira [UNESP] |
title_short |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? |
title_full |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? |
title_fullStr |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? |
title_full_unstemmed |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? |
title_sort |
The fewer, the better fare: Can the loss of vegetation in the Cerrado drive the increase in dengue fever cases infection? |
author |
da Silva, Arlindo Ananias Pereira [UNESP] |
author_facet |
da Silva, Arlindo Ananias Pereira [UNESP] Franquelino, Adriano Roberto [UNESP] Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo [UNESP] Montanari, Rafael [UNESP] Faria, Glaucia Amorim [UNESP] da Silva, Cristóvão Henrique Ribeiro da Silva, Dayane Bortoloto [UNESP] Júnior, Walter Aparecido Ribeiro Muchalak, Franciele Souza, Kassia Maria Cruz [UNESP] da Silva, Marcos Henrique Prudencio Teodoro, Larissa Pereira Ribeiro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Franquelino, Adriano Roberto [UNESP] Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo [UNESP] Montanari, Rafael [UNESP] Faria, Glaucia Amorim [UNESP] da Silva, Cristóvão Henrique Ribeiro da Silva, Dayane Bortoloto [UNESP] Júnior, Walter Aparecido Ribeiro Muchalak, Franciele Souza, Kassia Maria Cruz [UNESP] da Silva, Marcos Henrique Prudencio Teodoro, Larissa Pereira Ribeiro |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS) Federal University of Acre (UFAC) Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL) Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
da Silva, Arlindo Ananias Pereira [UNESP] Franquelino, Adriano Roberto [UNESP] Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo [UNESP] Montanari, Rafael [UNESP] Faria, Glaucia Amorim [UNESP] da Silva, Cristóvão Henrique Ribeiro da Silva, Dayane Bortoloto [UNESP] Júnior, Walter Aparecido Ribeiro Muchalak, Franciele Souza, Kassia Maria Cruz [UNESP] da Silva, Marcos Henrique Prudencio Teodoro, Larissa Pereira Ribeiro |
description |
Several studies have reported the relationship of deforestation with increased incidence of infectious diseases, mainly due to the deregulation caused in these environments. The purpose of this study was to answer the following questions: a) is increased loss of vegetation related to dengue cases in the Brazilian Cerrado? b) how do different regions of the tropical savanna biome present distinct patterns for total dengue cases and vegetation loss? c) what is the projection of a future scenario of deforestation and an increased number of dengue cases in 2030? Thus, this study aimed to assess the relationship between loss of native vegetation in the Cerrado and dengue infection. In this paper, we quantify the entire deforested area and dengue infection cases from 2001 to 2019. For data analyses, we used Poisson generalized linear model, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, non-parametric statistics, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict loss of vegetation and fever dengue cases for the next decade. Cluster analysis revealed the formation of four clusters among the states. Our results showed significant increases in loss of native vegetation in all states, with the exception of Piauí. As for dengue cases, there were increases in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso. Based on projections for 2030, Minas Gerais will register about 4,000 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, São Paulo 750 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and Mato Grosso 500 dengue cases per 100,000 inhabitants. To reduce these projections, Brazil will need to control deforestation and implement public health, environmental and social policies, requiring a joint effort from all spheres of society. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-04-28T19:49:42Z 2022-04-28T19:49:42Z 2022-01-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262473 PLoS ONE, v. 17, n. 1 January, 2022. 1932-6203 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/223284 10.1371/journal.pone.0262473 2-s2.0-85123064380 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262473 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/223284 |
identifier_str_mv |
PLoS ONE, v. 17, n. 1 January, 2022. 1932-6203 10.1371/journal.pone.0262473 2-s2.0-85123064380 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
PLoS ONE |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1808129433389760512 |