Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP]
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP], de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP], Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP]
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
Texto Completo: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248903
Resumo: We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.
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spelling Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.Research Program in Biometry Unesp, BotucatuDepartment of Biodiversity and Biostatistics Institute of Biosciences Unesp, BotucatuResearch Program in Biometry Unesp, BotucatuDepartment of Biodiversity and Biostatistics Institute of Biosciences Unesp, BotucatuUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP]Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP]de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP]Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP]2023-07-29T13:56:52Z2023-07-29T13:56:52Z2023-05-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752PLoS ONE, v. 18, n. 5 May, 2023.1932-6203http://hdl.handle.net/11449/24890310.1371/journal.pone.02727522-s2.0-85160455676Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengPLoS ONEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2023-07-29T13:56:52Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/248903Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T22:11:52.891504Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
title Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
spellingShingle Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP]
title_short Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
title_full Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
title_fullStr Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
title_full_unstemmed Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
title_sort Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
author Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP]
author_facet Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP]
Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP]
de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP]
Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP]
author_role author
author2 Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP]
de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP]
Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP]
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP]
Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP]
de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP]
Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP]
description We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-07-29T13:56:52Z
2023-07-29T13:56:52Z
2023-05-01
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752
PLoS ONE, v. 18, n. 5 May, 2023.
1932-6203
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248903
10.1371/journal.pone.0272752
2-s2.0-85160455676
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248903
identifier_str_mv PLoS ONE, v. 18, n. 5 May, 2023.
1932-6203
10.1371/journal.pone.0272752
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