Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248903 |
Resumo: | We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses. |
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Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.Research Program in Biometry Unesp, BotucatuDepartment of Biodiversity and Biostatistics Institute of Biosciences Unesp, BotucatuResearch Program in Biometry Unesp, BotucatuDepartment of Biodiversity and Biostatistics Institute of Biosciences Unesp, BotucatuUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP]Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP]de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP]Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP]2023-07-29T13:56:52Z2023-07-29T13:56:52Z2023-05-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752PLoS ONE, v. 18, n. 5 May, 2023.1932-6203http://hdl.handle.net/11449/24890310.1371/journal.pone.02727522-s2.0-85160455676Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengPLoS ONEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2023-07-29T13:56:52Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/248903Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T22:11:52.891504Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
title |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
spellingShingle |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP] |
title_short |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
title_full |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
title_fullStr |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
title_sort |
Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021 |
author |
Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP] |
author_facet |
Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP] Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP] de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP] Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP] |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP] de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP] Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP] |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Colonia, Saditt Rocio Robles [UNESP] Cardeal, Lara Morena [UNESP] de Oliveira, Rogério Antonio [UNESP] Trinca, Luzia Aparecida [UNESP] |
description |
We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-07-29T13:56:52Z 2023-07-29T13:56:52Z 2023-05-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752 PLoS ONE, v. 18, n. 5 May, 2023. 1932-6203 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248903 10.1371/journal.pone.0272752 2-s2.0-85160455676 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272752 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248903 |
identifier_str_mv |
PLoS ONE, v. 18, n. 5 May, 2023. 1932-6203 10.1371/journal.pone.0272752 2-s2.0-85160455676 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
PLoS ONE |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1808129403640610816 |