Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0096532 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/237681 |
Resumo: | Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a compartmental epidemic model fueled by real -world data of different diseases and countries. Our study confirms that massive and early vaccination is extremely effective to reduce the disease fatality if the contagion is mitigated, but the effectiveness is increasingly reduced as vaccination beginning delays in an uncontrolled epidemiological scenario. The optimal and least effective prioritization strategies depend non-linearly on epidemiological variables. Regions of the epidemiological parameter space, in which prioritizing the most vulnerable population is more effective than the most contagious individuals, depend strongly on the IFR age profile being, for example, substantially broader for COVID-19 in comparison with seasonal influenza. Demographics and social contact matrices deform the phase diagrams but do not alter their qualitative shapes. Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing. |
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Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategiesEffective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a compartmental epidemic model fueled by real -world data of different diseases and countries. Our study confirms that massive and early vaccination is extremely effective to reduce the disease fatality if the contagion is mitigated, but the effectiveness is increasingly reduced as vaccination beginning delays in an uncontrolled epidemiological scenario. The optimal and least effective prioritization strategies depend non-linearly on epidemiological variables. Regions of the epidemiological parameter space, in which prioritizing the most vulnerable population is more effective than the most contagious individuals, depend strongly on the IFR age profile being, for example, substantially broader for COVID-19 in comparison with seasonal influenza. Demographics and social contact matrices deform the phase diagrams but do not alter their qualitative shapes. Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG)Univ Fed Vicosa, Dept Fis, Vicosa BR-36570900, MG, BrazilNatl Inst Sci & Technol Complex Syst, Rio De Janeiro BR-22290180, BrazilUniv Sao Paulo, Inst Med Trop, BR-05403000 Brazi, SP, BrazilUniv Estadual Paulista, Fac Med Botucatu, Dept Infectol, BR-18618687 Botucatu, SP, BrazilUniv Estadual Paulista, Fac Med Botucatu, Dept Infectol, BR-18618687 Botucatu, SP, BrazilCAPES: 88887.507046/2020-00CAPES: 001CNPq: 430768/2018-4CNPq: 311183/2019-0FAPEMIG: APQ-02393-18Aip PublishingUniversidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)Natl Inst Sci & Technol Complex SystUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Schulenburg, ArthurCota, Wesley [UNESP]Costa, Guilherme S.Ferreira, Silvio C.2022-11-30T13:41:47Z2022-11-30T13:41:47Z2022-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article14http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0096532Chaos. Melville: Aip Publishing, v. 32, n. 9, 14 p., 2022.1054-1500http://hdl.handle.net/11449/23768110.1063/5.0096532WOS:000849328500001Web of Sciencereponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengChaosinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2022-11-30T13:41:47Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/237681Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T20:05:44.488456Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies |
title |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies |
spellingShingle |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies Schulenburg, Arthur |
title_short |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies |
title_full |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies |
title_fullStr |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies |
title_sort |
Effects of infection fatality ratio and social contact matrices on vaccine prioritization strategies |
author |
Schulenburg, Arthur |
author_facet |
Schulenburg, Arthur Cota, Wesley [UNESP] Costa, Guilherme S. Ferreira, Silvio C. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cota, Wesley [UNESP] Costa, Guilherme S. Ferreira, Silvio C. |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) Natl Inst Sci & Technol Complex Syst Universidade de São Paulo (USP) Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Schulenburg, Arthur Cota, Wesley [UNESP] Costa, Guilherme S. Ferreira, Silvio C. |
description |
Effective strategies of vaccine prioritization are essential to mitigate the impacts of severe infectious diseases. We investigate the role of infection fatality ratio (IFR) and social contact matrices on vaccination prioritization using a compartmental epidemic model fueled by real -world data of different diseases and countries. Our study confirms that massive and early vaccination is extremely effective to reduce the disease fatality if the contagion is mitigated, but the effectiveness is increasingly reduced as vaccination beginning delays in an uncontrolled epidemiological scenario. The optimal and least effective prioritization strategies depend non-linearly on epidemiological variables. Regions of the epidemiological parameter space, in which prioritizing the most vulnerable population is more effective than the most contagious individuals, depend strongly on the IFR age profile being, for example, substantially broader for COVID-19 in comparison with seasonal influenza. Demographics and social contact matrices deform the phase diagrams but do not alter their qualitative shapes. Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-30T13:41:47Z 2022-11-30T13:41:47Z 2022-09-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0096532 Chaos. Melville: Aip Publishing, v. 32, n. 9, 14 p., 2022. 1054-1500 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/237681 10.1063/5.0096532 WOS:000849328500001 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0096532 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/237681 |
identifier_str_mv |
Chaos. Melville: Aip Publishing, v. 32, n. 9, 14 p., 2022. 1054-1500 10.1063/5.0096532 WOS:000849328500001 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Chaos |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
14 |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Aip Publishing |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Aip Publishing |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Web of Science reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1808129158573719552 |