Falso positivo na performance dos fundos de investimento com gestão ativa no Brasil: mensurando sorte dos gestores nos alfas estimados

• Autor(a) principal: Jesus, Marcelo de
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do Mackenzie
• Texto Completo: http://dspace.mackenzie.br/handle/10899/23172
• topic: fundos de investimento; False Discovery Rate (FDR); sorte; performance; mutual funds; False Discovery Rate (FDR); luck; performance; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO

This study investigates, for the period between 2002 and 2009, what is the impact of luck on the performance of stocks mutual funds managers with active management in Brazil to surpass its benchmark. To that purpose, we used a new method, the False Discovery Rate approach - FDR to empirically test those impact. To measure precisely luck and unluck, ig, the frequency of false positives (Type I errors) in the tails of the cross-section of the tdistribution associated with the alphas of funds in the sample, this new approach was applied to measure the skills of grouped shape managers of stock funds with active management in Brazil. The FDR approach offers a simple and objective method to estimate the proportion of skilled funds (with a positive alpha), alpha-zero funds, and unskilled funds (with a negative alpha) across the population. Applying the FDR technique, it was found as a result of research that the majority of funds were alpha-zero, then no truly skilled funds, and only a small proportion of truly skilled funds.