Decisão ótima de corte de uma floresta de eucalipto, utilizando diferenças finitas totalmente implícitas com algoritmo PSOR

• Autor(a) principal: Kerr, Roberto Borges
• Data de Publicação: 2008
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do Mackenzie
• Texto Completo: http://dspace.mackenzie.br/handle/10899/23247
• topic: teoria do investimento; decisões ótimas de investimento; opções reais; investment science; optimal resource allocation; real options; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO::ADMINISTRACAO DE EMPRESAS

The Theory of Financial Decision Making tries to understand and explain how individuals and their agents make choices among alternatives that have uncertain payoffs over multiple time periods. The theory that explains how and why these decisions are made allows serveral models, presented in this thesis. However, the ortodox theory does not recognize the qualitative importance and quantitative implications of the interactions among irriversibility, uncertainty, and optimal point in time for investment. Decision making involves almost always three important characteristics; the investment is partially or completely irreversible, there is uncertainty about the stream of future cash flows, and there is a window of time for the decision to be made. These characteristics have to be taken into consideration in determining the optimal time for investment, because flexibility has value. The objective of this thesis is to demonstrate that the real options approach to uncertainty in resource allocation and investment decision making is able to capture the value of managerial flexibility properly and produces better results in modeling the optimal time to cut a stand of trees in a forestry investment project. The theory of real options is used to model the optimal tree harvesting decision. The linear complementarity partial differential inequalities were solved using the numerical method known as fully implicit finite difference method, with the projected over relaxation (PSOR) algorithm, using a software developed specially for this purpose.