Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRPE |
Texto Completo: | http://www.tede2.ufrpe.br:8080/tede2/handle/tede2/6777 |
Resumo: | The growth of the world economy, driven by emerging countries, especially China, has generated signi cant changes in the commodities market since 2002. The commodity prices have shown a signi cant increase, reecting the erce conditions of supply and demand for these products, driven by the climatic phenomena that have negatively afected the supply, and by the demand growth rate. The global nancial crisis began in the US market, and eventually turned out the worst global nancial crisis since 1929 (the break of the New York Stock Exchange). The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 15, 2008 marks the transformation of the international nancial crisis, after which in Brazil there was a great reduction of international credit, accompanied by a sharp increase of the dollar exchange rate. Considering that the agricultural sector is of fundamental importance to the economic health, being a major investor in environmental and rural technologies, Brazil can not succumb to the idea of a slowdown in this sector, as in 2008 the Brazilian agribusiness represented 36.7% of exports, generating 37% of jobs, and 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This work investigates the returns asynchrony and the behavior of the cross-correlations for six agricultural Brazilian agribusiness commodities, for the period prior to the global nancial crisis (2006-2009), and after the crisis (2010-2014). The Cross-Sample Entropy method was used for quantifying the asynchrony among the commodity returns series. In addition, the methods Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) were used to investigate cross-correlations and auto correlations in the returns series. The results of multifractal analysis show that for all time series, the multifractality decreased after the global nancial crisis, indicating smaller range of the scale invariant fluctuations, except for Cotton, which exhibits precisely the opposite behavior. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that the multifractal analysis and the complexity analysis can be useful in the studies of the dynamics of the Brazilian agribusiness, given its importance within the global economic scenario, for adoption of monetary and scal policies by the responsible economic agents, or by the federal government. |
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STOSIC, BorkoSTOSIC, TatijanaCUNHA FILHO, MoacyrFIGUEIREDO, Pedro Hugo deLIMA FILHO, Luiz Medeiros de Araújohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8171702059557650JALE, Jader da Silva2017-04-19T13:01:07Z2015-06-01JALE, Jader da Silva. Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009. 2015. 156 f. Tese (Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biometria e Estatística Aplicada) - Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Recife.http://www.tede2.ufrpe.br:8080/tede2/handle/tede2/6777The growth of the world economy, driven by emerging countries, especially China, has generated signi cant changes in the commodities market since 2002. The commodity prices have shown a signi cant increase, reecting the erce conditions of supply and demand for these products, driven by the climatic phenomena that have negatively afected the supply, and by the demand growth rate. The global nancial crisis began in the US market, and eventually turned out the worst global nancial crisis since 1929 (the break of the New York Stock Exchange). The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 15, 2008 marks the transformation of the international nancial crisis, after which in Brazil there was a great reduction of international credit, accompanied by a sharp increase of the dollar exchange rate. Considering that the agricultural sector is of fundamental importance to the economic health, being a major investor in environmental and rural technologies, Brazil can not succumb to the idea of a slowdown in this sector, as in 2008 the Brazilian agribusiness represented 36.7% of exports, generating 37% of jobs, and 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This work investigates the returns asynchrony and the behavior of the cross-correlations for six agricultural Brazilian agribusiness commodities, for the period prior to the global nancial crisis (2006-2009), and after the crisis (2010-2014). The Cross-Sample Entropy method was used for quantifying the asynchrony among the commodity returns series. In addition, the methods Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) were used to investigate cross-correlations and auto correlations in the returns series. The results of multifractal analysis show that for all time series, the multifractality decreased after the global nancial crisis, indicating smaller range of the scale invariant fluctuations, except for Cotton, which exhibits precisely the opposite behavior. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that the multifractal analysis and the complexity analysis can be useful in the studies of the dynamics of the Brazilian agribusiness, given its importance within the global economic scenario, for adoption of monetary and scal policies by the responsible economic agents, or by the federal government.O crescimento da economia mundial, impulsionado por países emergentes, principalmente a China, gerou mudanças relevantes no mercado de commodities a partir de 2002. Observou-se uma mudança nos preços das commodities, que mostraram uma elevação expressiva, mostrando condições acirradas entre oferta e demanda desses produtos, impulsionadas pela existência de problemas climáticos que afetaram negativamente a oferta e pelo ritmo de crescimento da demanda. A crise financeira mundial iniciou-se no mercado americano e acabou se tornando a pior crise financeira mundial desde 1929 (quebra da bolsa de Nova York). A falência do banco de investimento Lehman Brothers no dia 15 de setembro de 2008 marca a transformação da crise financeira internacional, e após isso, ocorre uma grande redução do crédito internacional e o dólar dispara no Brasil. Considerando que o setor agrícola é de fundamental importância para a sanidade econômica e por ser um grande investidor em tecnologias ambiental e rural, o Brasil não pode sucumbir a idéia uma desaceleração neste setor, pois o agronegócio brasileiro representou, em 2008, 36.7% das exportações brasileiras, geração de 37% dos empregos e 28% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Neste trabalho investigou-se a assincronia, a transferência de informação e o comportamento das correlações cruzadas dos retornos de seis commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro, para os períodos anteriores (2006-2009) e posteriores a crise financeira mundial (2010-2014). Utilizou-se o método Cross-Sample Entropy para quantificar a assincronia entre todas as séries de retornos das commodities. Utilizou-se os métodos Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) e Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) para investigar correlações cruzadas e auto correlações. Os resultados da análise multifractal mostram que para todas as séries temporais, a multifractalidade diminuiu após a crise financeira mundial, indicando menor variedade do tamanho das flutuações que apresentam invariância de escala, exceto o algodão, que apresentou comportamento contrário. Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se concluir que a análise multifractal e a análise de complexidade podem ser úteis nos estudos da dinâmica do agronegócio brasileiro, dada a sua importância, diante do cenário econômico mundial seja para adoção de políticas monetárias e fiscal dos órgãos responsáveis, agentes econômicos ou pelo governo federal.Submitted by Mario BC (mario@bc.ufrpe.br) on 2017-04-19T13:01:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jader da Silva Jale.pdf: 9845063 bytes, checksum: a4099ac7d2600e6b68a1349ce0d9bc53 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-19T13:01:07Z (GMT). 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 |
title |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 |
spellingShingle |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 JALE, Jader da Silva Commodities Agronegócio Análise multifractal Análise de complexidade Crise financeira Agribusiness Multifractal analysis Complexity analysis Financial crisis CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA |
title_short |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 |
title_full |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 |
title_fullStr |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 |
title_sort |
Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009 |
author |
JALE, Jader da Silva |
author_facet |
JALE, Jader da Silva |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
STOSIC, Borko |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
STOSIC, Tatijana |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
CUNHA FILHO, Moacyr |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
FIGUEIREDO, Pedro Hugo de |
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv |
LIMA FILHO, Luiz Medeiros de Araújo |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8171702059557650 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
JALE, Jader da Silva |
contributor_str_mv |
STOSIC, Borko STOSIC, Tatijana CUNHA FILHO, Moacyr FIGUEIREDO, Pedro Hugo de LIMA FILHO, Luiz Medeiros de Araújo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Commodities Agronegócio Análise multifractal Análise de complexidade Crise financeira |
topic |
Commodities Agronegócio Análise multifractal Análise de complexidade Crise financeira Agribusiness Multifractal analysis Complexity analysis Financial crisis CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Agribusiness Multifractal analysis Complexity analysis Financial crisis |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::PROBABILIDADE E ESTATISTICA |
description |
The growth of the world economy, driven by emerging countries, especially China, has generated signi cant changes in the commodities market since 2002. The commodity prices have shown a signi cant increase, reecting the erce conditions of supply and demand for these products, driven by the climatic phenomena that have negatively afected the supply, and by the demand growth rate. The global nancial crisis began in the US market, and eventually turned out the worst global nancial crisis since 1929 (the break of the New York Stock Exchange). The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 15, 2008 marks the transformation of the international nancial crisis, after which in Brazil there was a great reduction of international credit, accompanied by a sharp increase of the dollar exchange rate. Considering that the agricultural sector is of fundamental importance to the economic health, being a major investor in environmental and rural technologies, Brazil can not succumb to the idea of a slowdown in this sector, as in 2008 the Brazilian agribusiness represented 36.7% of exports, generating 37% of jobs, and 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This work investigates the returns asynchrony and the behavior of the cross-correlations for six agricultural Brazilian agribusiness commodities, for the period prior to the global nancial crisis (2006-2009), and after the crisis (2010-2014). The Cross-Sample Entropy method was used for quantifying the asynchrony among the commodity returns series. In addition, the methods Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) were used to investigate cross-correlations and auto correlations in the returns series. The results of multifractal analysis show that for all time series, the multifractality decreased after the global nancial crisis, indicating smaller range of the scale invariant fluctuations, except for Cotton, which exhibits precisely the opposite behavior. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that the multifractal analysis and the complexity analysis can be useful in the studies of the dynamics of the Brazilian agribusiness, given its importance within the global economic scenario, for adoption of monetary and scal policies by the responsible economic agents, or by the federal government. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2015-06-01 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2017-04-19T13:01:07Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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doctoralThesis |
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
JALE, Jader da Silva. Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009. 2015. 156 f. Tese (Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biometria e Estatística Aplicada) - Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Recife. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.tede2.ufrpe.br:8080/tede2/handle/tede2/6777 |
identifier_str_mv |
JALE, Jader da Silva. Commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro : análise multifractal e análise da complexidade diante da crise financeira mundial subprime 2008/2009. 2015. 156 f. Tese (Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biometria e Estatística Aplicada) - Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Recife. |
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http://www.tede2.ufrpe.br:8080/tede2/handle/tede2/6777 |
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Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco |
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