Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Ahmed,Ferdous
Data de Publicação: 2016
Outros Autores: Al-Amin,Abul Quasem, Mohamad,Zeeda Fatimah, Chenayah,Santha
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Scientia Agrícola (Online)
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162016000400311
Resumo: ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.
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spelling Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selectionCGEpolicy developmentstrategiesagricultural sustainabilityABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"2016-08-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162016000400311Scientia Agricola v.73 n.4 2016reponame:Scientia Agrícola (Online)instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USP10.1590/0103-9016-2015-0141info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAhmed,FerdousAl-Amin,Abul QuasemMohamad,Zeeda FatimahChenayah,Santhaeng2016-06-30T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0103-90162016000400311Revistahttp://revistas.usp.br/sa/indexPUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpscientia@usp.br||alleoni@usp.br1678-992X0103-9016opendoar:2016-06-30T00:00Scientia Agrícola (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
title Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
spellingShingle Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
Ahmed,Ferdous
CGE
policy development
strategies
agricultural sustainability
title_short Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
title_full Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
title_fullStr Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
title_full_unstemmed Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
title_sort Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
author Ahmed,Ferdous
author_facet Ahmed,Ferdous
Al-Amin,Abul Quasem
Mohamad,Zeeda Fatimah
Chenayah,Santha
author_role author
author2 Al-Amin,Abul Quasem
Mohamad,Zeeda Fatimah
Chenayah,Santha
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Ahmed,Ferdous
Al-Amin,Abul Quasem
Mohamad,Zeeda Fatimah
Chenayah,Santha
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv CGE
policy development
strategies
agricultural sustainability
topic CGE
policy development
strategies
agricultural sustainability
description ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-08-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162016000400311
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162016000400311
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/0103-9016-2015-0141
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Scientia Agricola v.73 n.4 2016
reponame:Scientia Agrícola (Online)
instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron:USP
instname_str Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron_str USP
institution USP
reponame_str Scientia Agrícola (Online)
collection Scientia Agrícola (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Scientia Agrícola (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv scientia@usp.br||alleoni@usp.br
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