Dynamic systems approach assess and manage water resources in river basins

• Autor(a) principal: Sánchez-Román,Rodrigo Máximo
• Data de Publicação: 2009
• Outros Autores: Folegatti,Marcos Vinicius, Orellana González,Alba María Guadalupe, Silva,Rogério Teixeira da
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Scientia Agrícola (Online)
• Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90162009000400001
• topic: water stress; water management; watershed; modeling

The Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Basins (RB-PCJ) are located in the States of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, Brazil. By 2005, 5.8% of Brazil's General National Product-GNP was produced there. Such economic development has created a huge demand for water resources. The availability of water resources was assessed by running a dynamic systems simulation model to manage these resources in the RB-PCJ (WRM-PCJ), considering five 50-year simulations. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model computes water supply, demands, and contamination load from several consumers. When considering a Business-as-Usual scenario, by 2054, water demands will have increased up to 76%, 39% of the available water will come from wastewater reuse, and the contamination load will have increased by 91%. The Falkenmark Index started at 1403 m³ person-1 year-1 in 2004, ending at 734 m³ P-1 yr-1 in 2054; the Xu Sustainability Index started at 0.44 and ended at 0.20; and Keller's River Basin Development Phases started as Phase II, and ended at final Phase III, of Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that RB-PCJ is at a crucial management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and proved to be an excellent tool to assess water resources availability.