Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Clinics |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322 |
Resumo: | OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sa˜o Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contacttracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing. |
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Clinics |
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Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemicCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Contact TracingMathematical ModelOBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sa˜o Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contacttracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo2021-11-09info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/19232210.6061/clinics/2021/e2639Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e2639Clinics; v. 76 (2021); e2639Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e26391980-53221807-5932reponame:Clinicsinstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322/177211Copyright (c) 2021 Clinicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAmaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo 2023-07-06T13:04:03Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/192322Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinicsPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/oai||clinics@hc.fm.usp.br1980-53221807-5932opendoar:2023-07-06T13:04:03Clinics - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic |
title |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic |
spellingShingle |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic Amaku, Marcos COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Contact Tracing Mathematical Model |
title_short |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic |
title_full |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic |
title_sort |
Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic |
author |
Amaku, Marcos |
author_facet |
Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Contact Tracing Mathematical Model |
topic |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Contact Tracing Mathematical Model |
description |
OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sa˜o Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contacttracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-11-09 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322 10.6061/clinics/2021/e2639 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.6061/clinics/2021/e2639 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322/177211 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Clinics info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Clinics |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e2639 Clinics; v. 76 (2021); e2639 Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e2639 1980-5322 1807-5932 reponame:Clinics instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Clinics |
collection |
Clinics |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Clinics - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||clinics@hc.fm.usp.br |
_version_ |
1800222765736787968 |