Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Amaku, Marcos
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Covas, Dimas Tadeu, Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra, Azevedo, Raymundo Soares, Massad, Eduardo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Clinics
Texto Completo: https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322
Resumo: OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sa˜o Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contacttracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.
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spelling Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemicCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Contact TracingMathematical ModelOBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sa˜o Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contacttracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo2021-11-09info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/19232210.6061/clinics/2021/e2639Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e2639Clinics; v. 76 (2021); e2639Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e26391980-53221807-5932reponame:Clinicsinstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322/177211Copyright (c) 2021 Clinicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAmaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo 2023-07-06T13:04:03Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/192322Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinicsPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/oai||clinics@hc.fm.usp.br1980-53221807-5932opendoar:2023-07-06T13:04:03Clinics - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
spellingShingle Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
Amaku, Marcos
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Contact Tracing
Mathematical Model
title_short Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_full Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_fullStr Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
title_sort Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
author Amaku, Marcos
author_facet Amaku, Marcos
Covas, Dimas Tadeu
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Azevedo, Raymundo Soares
Massad, Eduardo
author_role author
author2 Covas, Dimas Tadeu
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Azevedo, Raymundo Soares
Massad, Eduardo
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Amaku, Marcos
Covas, Dimas Tadeu
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Azevedo, Raymundo Soares
Massad, Eduardo
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Contact Tracing
Mathematical Model
topic COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Contact Tracing
Mathematical Model
description OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sa˜o Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contacttracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-11-09
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322
10.6061/clinics/2021/e2639
url https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322
identifier_str_mv 10.6061/clinics/2021/e2639
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/clinics/article/view/192322/177211
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Clinics
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Clinics
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e2639
Clinics; v. 76 (2021); e2639
Clinics; Vol. 76 (2021); e2639
1980-5322
1807-5932
reponame:Clinics
instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron:USP
instname_str Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron_str USP
institution USP
reponame_str Clinics
collection Clinics
repository.name.fl_str_mv Clinics - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||clinics@hc.fm.usp.br
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