Está a economia americana superaquecida?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2000 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Economia Aplicada |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778 |
Resumo: | This paper presents a diagnosis ofthe macro conditions ofthe US Economy. It analyses two possible scenarios. In the first, technological developments created preconditions for a rapid and sustainable economic growth with price stability. In the second, nothing essential has changed.. The paper analyze a series representative of production, measured by per capita real income and a series representative of total expenditures. We estimate an excess of actual output over its full employment level of almost 6% and an excess of expenditures over its equilibrium level of almost 5%, both when measured by the trade and the current account deficits. Two variables appear to explain this behavior of economic agents. One variable indicative of the level of excess wealth, here approximated by the overvaluation ofthe Dow Jones Index and one to capture the degree of competitiveness of the US economy. We concluded that by the end of 1999, the value of the Dow Jones Index was more than 60% above its equilibrium level. The overvaluation of the stock exchange and of the US dollar would explain the excess of production and of expenditures over their equilibrium level. |
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Economia Aplicada |
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Está a economia americana superaquecida?equilibrium level of output and expendituresovervaluation of assets and external competitivenessThis paper presents a diagnosis ofthe macro conditions ofthe US Economy. It analyses two possible scenarios. In the first, technological developments created preconditions for a rapid and sustainable economic growth with price stability. In the second, nothing essential has changed.. The paper analyze a series representative of production, measured by per capita real income and a series representative of total expenditures. We estimate an excess of actual output over its full employment level of almost 6% and an excess of expenditures over its equilibrium level of almost 5%, both when measured by the trade and the current account deficits. Two variables appear to explain this behavior of economic agents. One variable indicative of the level of excess wealth, here approximated by the overvaluation ofthe Dow Jones Index and one to capture the degree of competitiveness of the US economy. We concluded that by the end of 1999, the value of the Dow Jones Index was more than 60% above its equilibrium level. The overvaluation of the stock exchange and of the US dollar would explain the excess of production and of expenditures over their equilibrium level.Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2000-04-30info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/21877810.11606/1413-8050/ea218778Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 Núm. 2 (2000); 351-366Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 No. 2 (2000); 351-366Economia Aplicada; v. 4 n. 2 (2000); 351-3661980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPporhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778/199883Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicadahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAlmonacid, Ruben D. Spolador, HumbertoF. S. 2023-11-13T13:03:53Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/218778Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2023-11-13T13:03:53Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
title |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
spellingShingle |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? Almonacid, Ruben D. equilibrium level of output and expenditures overvaluation of assets and external competitiveness |
title_short |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
title_full |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
title_fullStr |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
title_sort |
Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
author |
Almonacid, Ruben D. |
author_facet |
Almonacid, Ruben D. Spolador, HumbertoF. S. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Spolador, HumbertoF. S. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Almonacid, Ruben D. Spolador, HumbertoF. S. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
equilibrium level of output and expenditures overvaluation of assets and external competitiveness |
topic |
equilibrium level of output and expenditures overvaluation of assets and external competitiveness |
description |
This paper presents a diagnosis ofthe macro conditions ofthe US Economy. It analyses two possible scenarios. In the first, technological developments created preconditions for a rapid and sustainable economic growth with price stability. In the second, nothing essential has changed.. The paper analyze a series representative of production, measured by per capita real income and a series representative of total expenditures. We estimate an excess of actual output over its full employment level of almost 6% and an excess of expenditures over its equilibrium level of almost 5%, both when measured by the trade and the current account deficits. Two variables appear to explain this behavior of economic agents. One variable indicative of the level of excess wealth, here approximated by the overvaluation ofthe Dow Jones Index and one to capture the degree of competitiveness of the US economy. We concluded that by the end of 1999, the value of the Dow Jones Index was more than 60% above its equilibrium level. The overvaluation of the stock exchange and of the US dollar would explain the excess of production and of expenditures over their equilibrium level. |
publishDate |
2000 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2000-04-30 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778 10.11606/1413-8050/ea218778 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.11606/1413-8050/ea218778 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778/199883 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 Núm. 2 (2000); 351-366 Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 No. 2 (2000); 351-366 Economia Aplicada; v. 4 n. 2 (2000); 351-366 1980-5330 1413-8050 reponame:Economia Aplicada instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Economia Aplicada |
collection |
Economia Aplicada |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revecap@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800221693190340608 |