Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: de Mello, Euler Pereira
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Figueiredo, Francisco
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Economia Aplicada
Texto Completo: https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145240
Resumo: This paper assesses the predictive power of themain confidence indices available in Brazil to forecast economicactivity. More specifically, we consider a set of economic activityvariables and, for each of those, compare the predictive power of aunivariate autoregressive model to that of a similar model thatincludes a confidence index. Preliminary results using the DieboldMariano test suggest that the Industry Confidence Index providesrelevant information, for both present and the near future, on someeconomic activity variables of interest to the economic agents.
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spelling Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence IndicesConfidence indicesEconomic activityForecasting.This paper assesses the predictive power of themain confidence indices available in Brazil to forecast economicactivity. More specifically, we consider a set of economic activityvariables and, for each of those, compare the predictive power of aunivariate autoregressive model to that of a similar model thatincludes a confidence index. Preliminary results using the DieboldMariano test suggest that the Industry Confidence Index providesrelevant information, for both present and the near future, on someeconomic activity variables of interest to the economic agents.Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2017-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/14524010.11606/ea139730Economia Aplicada; Vol. 21 No. 4 (2017); 713-727Economia Aplicada; Vol. 21 Núm. 4 (2017); 713-727Economia Aplicada; v. 21 n. 4 (2017); 713-7271980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145240/139410Copyright (c) 2017 Economia Aplicadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessde Mello, Euler PereiraFigueiredo, Francisco2020-08-05T05:48:58Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/145240Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2023-09-13T12:17:10.774342Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
title Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
spellingShingle Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
de Mello, Euler Pereira
Confidence indices
Economic activity
Forecasting.
title_short Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
title_full Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
title_fullStr Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
title_sort Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices
author de Mello, Euler Pereira
author_facet de Mello, Euler Pereira
Figueiredo, Francisco
author_role author
author2 Figueiredo, Francisco
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv de Mello, Euler Pereira
Figueiredo, Francisco
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Confidence indices
Economic activity
Forecasting.
topic Confidence indices
Economic activity
Forecasting.
description This paper assesses the predictive power of themain confidence indices available in Brazil to forecast economicactivity. More specifically, we consider a set of economic activityvariables and, for each of those, compare the predictive power of aunivariate autoregressive model to that of a similar model thatincludes a confidence index. Preliminary results using the DieboldMariano test suggest that the Industry Confidence Index providesrelevant information, for both present and the near future, on someeconomic activity variables of interest to the economic agents.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-12-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145240
10.11606/ea139730
url https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145240
identifier_str_mv 10.11606/ea139730
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145240/139410
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Economia Aplicada
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Economia Aplicada
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Economia Aplicada; Vol. 21 No. 4 (2017); 713-727
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 21 Núm. 4 (2017); 713-727
Economia Aplicada; v. 21 n. 4 (2017); 713-727
1980-5330
1413-8050
reponame:Economia Aplicada
instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron:USP
instname_str Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron_str USP
institution USP
reponame_str Economia Aplicada
collection Economia Aplicada
repository.name.fl_str_mv Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||revecap@usp.br
_version_ 1800221695897763840

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