Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2000 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Economia Aplicada |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145212 |
Resumo: | Over the past seventeen years the Brazilian macroeconomic performance has been considerably weaker than in previous decades. Inflation reached unprecedented levels and economic growth declined considerably. In this study we use monthly time series to access the relation between this weak and unstable macroeconomic performance on poverty and inequality. The estimates using aggregated and pooling time series reveal that inflation seems to have little association with inequality and particularly with poverty. However, since the variation in the monthly inflation rate over the past seventeen years has been very substantial, the associated variation of poverty became quite significant. As far as the impact of unemployment is concerned, the estimates indicate relatively weak relation between this variable and poverty or inequality. Finally, time-varying regressions indicate that the major results of this study, although applicable to most of the period analyzed, may not necessarily reflect the current situation. In fact, the time-varying estimates reveal a sharp recent decline in the association between unemployment and poverty or inequality, consistent with the drop in poverty and inequality in 1995, despite a considerably increase in the unemployment rate. There is also evidence that the relation between inflation and poverty or inequality declines as inflation accelerates. |
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Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instabilityPoverty, inequality and macroeconomic instabilityincome distributioninflationeconomic cycledistribuição de rendainflaçãociclo econômicoOver the past seventeen years the Brazilian macroeconomic performance has been considerably weaker than in previous decades. Inflation reached unprecedented levels and economic growth declined considerably. In this study we use monthly time series to access the relation between this weak and unstable macroeconomic performance on poverty and inequality. The estimates using aggregated and pooling time series reveal that inflation seems to have little association with inequality and particularly with poverty. However, since the variation in the monthly inflation rate over the past seventeen years has been very substantial, the associated variation of poverty became quite significant. As far as the impact of unemployment is concerned, the estimates indicate relatively weak relation between this variable and poverty or inequality. Finally, time-varying regressions indicate that the major results of this study, although applicable to most of the period analyzed, may not necessarily reflect the current situation. In fact, the time-varying estimates reveal a sharp recent decline in the association between unemployment and poverty or inequality, consistent with the drop in poverty and inequality in 1995, despite a considerably increase in the unemployment rate. There is also evidence that the relation between inflation and poverty or inequality declines as inflation accelerates.Nas últimas duas décadas, o Brasil experimentou uma performance macroeconômica muito aquém da registrada para o período imediatamente anterior. A inflação alcançou níveis sem precedentes e o crescimento econômico desacelerou consideravelmente. Neste artigo, usamos séries de tempo mensais para estimar a relação entre a performance macroeconômica e os níveis de pobreza e desigualdade no Brasil. As estimativas usando tanto dados agregados como um pooling de series regionais revelam que a inflação parece estar pouco relacionada com pobreza e desigualdade. No entanto, quando se leva em consideração que a variação na taxa mensal de inflação foi bastante alta, mostra-se que as variações correspondentes nos níveis de pobreza e desigualdade são significativas. Com relação ao desemprego, as estimativas indicam uma tênue relação desta variável com pobreza e desigualdade. Finalmente, quando consideramos a possibilidade destas relações estimadas variarem ao longo do período analisado, foi identificada uma mudança nas estimativas relacionadas ao período mais recente (pós-Real). De fato, a relação entre desemprego e pobreza ou desigualdade se torna bem mais tênue no final do período, o que parece consistente com a queda da pobreza observada a partir de 1995, quando o desemprego assume uma trajetória ascendente. Tambem há evidências de que a relação entre inflação e pobreza ou desigualdade é mais fraca nos períodos de aceleração inflacionária.Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2000-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/14521210.11606/1980-5330/ea145212Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 Núm. 4 (2000); 743-761Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 No. 4 (2000); 743-761Economia Aplicada; v. 4 n. 4 (2000); 743-7611980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145212/139303Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicadahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBarros, Ricardo Paes deCorseuil, CarlosMendonça, RosaneReis, Mauricio Cortez2023-10-24T22:27:25Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/145212Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2023-10-24T22:27:25Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability |
title |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability |
spellingShingle |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability Barros, Ricardo Paes de income distribution inflation economic cycle distribuição de renda inflação ciclo econômico |
title_short |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability |
title_full |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability |
title_fullStr |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability |
title_sort |
Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability |
author |
Barros, Ricardo Paes de |
author_facet |
Barros, Ricardo Paes de Corseuil, Carlos Mendonça, Rosane Reis, Mauricio Cortez |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Corseuil, Carlos Mendonça, Rosane Reis, Mauricio Cortez |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Barros, Ricardo Paes de Corseuil, Carlos Mendonça, Rosane Reis, Mauricio Cortez |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
income distribution inflation economic cycle distribuição de renda inflação ciclo econômico |
topic |
income distribution inflation economic cycle distribuição de renda inflação ciclo econômico |
description |
Over the past seventeen years the Brazilian macroeconomic performance has been considerably weaker than in previous decades. Inflation reached unprecedented levels and economic growth declined considerably. In this study we use monthly time series to access the relation between this weak and unstable macroeconomic performance on poverty and inequality. The estimates using aggregated and pooling time series reveal that inflation seems to have little association with inequality and particularly with poverty. However, since the variation in the monthly inflation rate over the past seventeen years has been very substantial, the associated variation of poverty became quite significant. As far as the impact of unemployment is concerned, the estimates indicate relatively weak relation between this variable and poverty or inequality. Finally, time-varying regressions indicate that the major results of this study, although applicable to most of the period analyzed, may not necessarily reflect the current situation. In fact, the time-varying estimates reveal a sharp recent decline in the association between unemployment and poverty or inequality, consistent with the drop in poverty and inequality in 1995, despite a considerably increase in the unemployment rate. There is also evidence that the relation between inflation and poverty or inequality declines as inflation accelerates. |
publishDate |
2000 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2000-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145212 10.11606/1980-5330/ea145212 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145212 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.11606/1980-5330/ea145212 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145212/139303 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 Núm. 4 (2000); 743-761 Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 No. 4 (2000); 743-761 Economia Aplicada; v. 4 n. 4 (2000); 743-761 1980-5330 1413-8050 reponame:Economia Aplicada instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Economia Aplicada |
collection |
Economia Aplicada |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revecap@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800221692806561792 |