Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2003 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Economia Aplicada |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/220221 |
Resumo: | We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model, in line with the Real Business Cycles literature, to design macroeconomic scenarios for the medium-term. At high frequencies, the model generates simulated data generated consistent with the cyclical volatilities of the National Income as well as with the countercyclical nature of the Brazilian Trade Balance. For the low frequencies, following the "Bank-Fund" and "gap" models tradition, we use the external financing gap as a constraint to growth. In particular, we find that for a 10 years time horizon, a Current Acount deficit of 4.5% of GDP is consistent with a GDP growth rate of 3.7%. |
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Economia Aplicada |
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Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicosbusiness cyclesgrowthfinancing gapWe construct a dynamic general equilibrium model, in line with the Real Business Cycles literature, to design macroeconomic scenarios for the medium-term. At high frequencies, the model generates simulated data generated consistent with the cyclical volatilities of the National Income as well as with the countercyclical nature of the Brazilian Trade Balance. For the low frequencies, following the "Bank-Fund" and "gap" models tradition, we use the external financing gap as a constraint to growth. In particular, we find that for a 10 years time horizon, a Current Acount deficit of 4.5% of GDP is consistent with a GDP growth rate of 3.7%.Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2003-08-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/22022110.11606/1413-8050/ea220221Economia Aplicada; Vol. 7 Núm. 4 (2003); 675-702Economia Aplicada; Vol. 7 No. 4 (2003); 675-702Economia Aplicada; v. 7 n. 4 (2003); 675-7021980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPporhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/220221/201059Copyright (c) 2003 Economia Aplicadahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessKanczuk, Fabio 2023-12-13T14:37:48Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/220221Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2023-12-13T14:37:48Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos |
title |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos |
spellingShingle |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos Kanczuk, Fabio business cycles growth financing gap |
title_short |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos |
title_full |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos |
title_fullStr |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos |
title_full_unstemmed |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos |
title_sort |
Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos |
author |
Kanczuk, Fabio |
author_facet |
Kanczuk, Fabio |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Kanczuk, Fabio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
business cycles growth financing gap |
topic |
business cycles growth financing gap |
description |
We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model, in line with the Real Business Cycles literature, to design macroeconomic scenarios for the medium-term. At high frequencies, the model generates simulated data generated consistent with the cyclical volatilities of the National Income as well as with the countercyclical nature of the Brazilian Trade Balance. For the low frequencies, following the "Bank-Fund" and "gap" models tradition, we use the external financing gap as a constraint to growth. In particular, we find that for a 10 years time horizon, a Current Acount deficit of 4.5% of GDP is consistent with a GDP growth rate of 3.7%. |
publishDate |
2003 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2003-08-05 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/220221 10.11606/1413-8050/ea220221 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/220221 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.11606/1413-8050/ea220221 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/220221/201059 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2003 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2003 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 7 Núm. 4 (2003); 675-702 Economia Aplicada; Vol. 7 No. 4 (2003); 675-702 Economia Aplicada; v. 7 n. 4 (2003); 675-702 1980-5330 1413-8050 reponame:Economia Aplicada instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Economia Aplicada |
collection |
Economia Aplicada |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revecap@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800221693631791105 |