Present value tests of the Brazilian current account
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2000 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Economia Aplicada |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218773 |
Resumo: | During the 90s, and in particular after the adoption of the Real Plan in 1994, a clear deterioration in the Brazilian current account has been observed. This fact attracted immediate attention to the question of whether or not the economy is obeying its external present value constraint, i.e., whether the current account deficit is on a sustainable path.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the "long run tendency" of the Brazilian current account. The procedure used is to estimate cointegrating regressions between exports and imports plus interest rate payments. Initial evidence from the regressions suggests that from 1947 to 1997 the long-run Brazilian current account was not zero. As we use a long span of data we also examine if there are any structural breaks in the cointegrating vectors in the face of regime changes. Since 1982 there has been an apparent structural shift in the relationship between trade flows. With the break, however, the results do not change. Conditions for intertemporal budget balance are still not satisfied. |
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oai:revistas.usp.br:article/218773 |
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USP-21 |
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Economia Aplicada |
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Present value tests of the Brazilian current accountcurrent accountsustainabilitystructural breaksBrazilDuring the 90s, and in particular after the adoption of the Real Plan in 1994, a clear deterioration in the Brazilian current account has been observed. This fact attracted immediate attention to the question of whether or not the economy is obeying its external present value constraint, i.e., whether the current account deficit is on a sustainable path.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the "long run tendency" of the Brazilian current account. The procedure used is to estimate cointegrating regressions between exports and imports plus interest rate payments. Initial evidence from the regressions suggests that from 1947 to 1997 the long-run Brazilian current account was not zero. As we use a long span of data we also examine if there are any structural breaks in the cointegrating vectors in the face of regime changes. Since 1982 there has been an apparent structural shift in the relationship between trade flows. With the break, however, the results do not change. Conditions for intertemporal budget balance are still not satisfied.Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2000-04-30info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/21877310.11606/1413-8050/ea218773Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 Núm. 2 (2000); 203-222Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 No. 2 (2000); 203-222Economia Aplicada; v. 4 n. 2 (2000); 203-2221980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218773/199878Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicadahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRocha, Fabiana Bender, Siegfried 2023-11-13T13:03:53Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/218773Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2023-11-13T13:03:53Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account |
title |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account |
spellingShingle |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account Rocha, Fabiana current account sustainability structural breaks Brazil |
title_short |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account |
title_full |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account |
title_fullStr |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account |
title_full_unstemmed |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account |
title_sort |
Present value tests of the Brazilian current account |
author |
Rocha, Fabiana |
author_facet |
Rocha, Fabiana Bender, Siegfried |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Bender, Siegfried |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rocha, Fabiana Bender, Siegfried |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
current account sustainability structural breaks Brazil |
topic |
current account sustainability structural breaks Brazil |
description |
During the 90s, and in particular after the adoption of the Real Plan in 1994, a clear deterioration in the Brazilian current account has been observed. This fact attracted immediate attention to the question of whether or not the economy is obeying its external present value constraint, i.e., whether the current account deficit is on a sustainable path.The purpose of this paper is to investigate the "long run tendency" of the Brazilian current account. The procedure used is to estimate cointegrating regressions between exports and imports plus interest rate payments. Initial evidence from the regressions suggests that from 1947 to 1997 the long-run Brazilian current account was not zero. As we use a long span of data we also examine if there are any structural breaks in the cointegrating vectors in the face of regime changes. Since 1982 there has been an apparent structural shift in the relationship between trade flows. With the break, however, the results do not change. Conditions for intertemporal budget balance are still not satisfied. |
publishDate |
2000 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2000-04-30 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218773 10.11606/1413-8050/ea218773 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218773 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.11606/1413-8050/ea218773 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218773/199878 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2000 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 Núm. 2 (2000); 203-222 Economia Aplicada; Vol. 4 No. 2 (2000); 203-222 Economia Aplicada; v. 4 n. 2 (2000); 203-222 1980-5330 1413-8050 reponame:Economia Aplicada instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Economia Aplicada |
collection |
Economia Aplicada |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revecap@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800221693184049152 |