Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2006 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | spa |
Título da fonte: | Revista de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32112 |
Resumo: | OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproductive rate of a chickenpox outbreak, to apply the stochastic threshold theorem to estimate the probability of an outbreak occurrence and to identify preventive measures. METHODS: The study was carried out in a daycare center comprising 16 children, 13 susceptible, one infected and two children with acquired immunity by previous disease. A stochastic susceptible - infected - removed model was applied. The basic reproductive rate (R0) was estimated using the maximum likelihood method based on probability distribution for the total size of the epidemic and making an approach of almost complete epidemic. Based on R0, the theorem was applied to establish some preventive measures for preventing a chickenpox outbreak. RESULTS: Each initially infected subject produced three new cases of infection requiring minimum vaccination coverage of 62% to prevent the outbreak or to reduce in 62% the contact among members of the group or to increase in 170% removal of infected subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The stochastic threshold theorem allows to identifying measures that could be implemented to prevent and control chickenpox outbreaks. Although the distribution of the epidemic size showed similar probability of occurrence of large and small outbreaks in a typical bimodal pattern, it illustrates the uncertainty of epidemic process in small groups, requiring close detection of outbreaks in such groups. |
id |
USP-23_1bfadf62df6184ca0cb6bddea5643177 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:revistas.usp.br:article/32112 |
network_acronym_str |
USP-23 |
network_name_str |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak Aplicación del teorema del umbral estocástico de Whittle a un brote de varicela VaricelaBrotes de enfermedadesModelos matemáticosProcesos estocásticosMétodos epidemiológicosChickenpoxDisease outbreaksMathematical modelsStochastic processesEpidemiologic methods OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproductive rate of a chickenpox outbreak, to apply the stochastic threshold theorem to estimate the probability of an outbreak occurrence and to identify preventive measures. METHODS: The study was carried out in a daycare center comprising 16 children, 13 susceptible, one infected and two children with acquired immunity by previous disease. A stochastic susceptible - infected - removed model was applied. The basic reproductive rate (R0) was estimated using the maximum likelihood method based on probability distribution for the total size of the epidemic and making an approach of almost complete epidemic. Based on R0, the theorem was applied to establish some preventive measures for preventing a chickenpox outbreak. RESULTS: Each initially infected subject produced three new cases of infection requiring minimum vaccination coverage of 62% to prevent the outbreak or to reduce in 62% the contact among members of the group or to increase in 170% removal of infected subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The stochastic threshold theorem allows to identifying measures that could be implemented to prevent and control chickenpox outbreaks. Although the distribution of the epidemic size showed similar probability of occurrence of large and small outbreaks in a typical bimodal pattern, it illustrates the uncertainty of epidemic process in small groups, requiring close detection of outbreaks in such groups. OBJETIVO: Estimar el ritmo reproductivo básico en un brote de varicela, aplicar el teorema umbral estocástico para estimar la probabilidad de la ocurrencia del brote e identificar medidas preventivas. MÉTODOS: El estudio fue realizado en una guardería de 16 niños, con 13 susceptibles, un infectado inicial y dos niños inmunes por antecedente de enfermedad. Se partió de un modelo estocástico: susceptible - infectado - removido. Se estimó el ritmo de reproducción básico de la enfermedad R0, usando un método de máxima verosimilitud basado en el conocimiento de la distribución de probabilidades para el tamaño total de la epidemia y haciendo una aproximación de epidemia casi-completa. Con el R0 obtenido se aplicó el teorema de umbral estocástico para obtener algunas medidas preventivas que podrían impedir la irrupción del brote de varicela. RESULTADOS: Cada infectado inicial produjo tres casos nuevos de infección, requiriendo para impedir el brote, una cobertura mínima de vacunación del 62%, o disminuir en 62% el contacto entre miembros del grupo o aumentar en 170% la remoción de infectados. CONCLUSIONES: El teorema del umbral estocástico permite identificar medidas que se podrían implementar para prevenir y controlar brotes de varicela. Aunque la distribución del tamaño de la epidemia en forma bimodal con similar probabilidad de ocurrencia de brotes grandes y pequeños, señala la incertidumbre del proceso epidémico en grupos pequeños, requiriéndose un estrecho seguimiento de los brotes en tales grupos. Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública2006-08-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/3211210.1590/S0034-89102006000500015Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 40 No. 4 (2006); 656-662 Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 40 Núm. 4 (2006); 656-662 Revista de Saúde Pública; v. 40 n. 4 (2006); 656-662 1518-87870034-8910reponame:Revista de Saúde Públicainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPspahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32112/34185Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Públicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessHincapié Palacio, DoracellyOspina Giraldo, Juan Fernando2012-07-08T23:11:45Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/32112Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/indexONGhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/oairevsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br1518-87870034-8910opendoar:2012-07-08T23:11:45Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak Aplicación del teorema del umbral estocástico de Whittle a un brote de varicela |
title |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak |
spellingShingle |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak Hincapié Palacio, Doracelly Varicela Brotes de enfermedades Modelos matemáticos Procesos estocásticos Métodos epidemiológicos Chickenpox Disease outbreaks Mathematical models Stochastic processes Epidemiologic methods |
title_short |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak |
title_full |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak |
title_fullStr |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak |
title_full_unstemmed |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak |
title_sort |
Application of Whittle's stochastic threshold theorem to a chickenpox outbreak |
author |
Hincapié Palacio, Doracelly |
author_facet |
Hincapié Palacio, Doracelly Ospina Giraldo, Juan Fernando |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ospina Giraldo, Juan Fernando |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Hincapié Palacio, Doracelly Ospina Giraldo, Juan Fernando |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Varicela Brotes de enfermedades Modelos matemáticos Procesos estocásticos Métodos epidemiológicos Chickenpox Disease outbreaks Mathematical models Stochastic processes Epidemiologic methods |
topic |
Varicela Brotes de enfermedades Modelos matemáticos Procesos estocásticos Métodos epidemiológicos Chickenpox Disease outbreaks Mathematical models Stochastic processes Epidemiologic methods |
description |
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproductive rate of a chickenpox outbreak, to apply the stochastic threshold theorem to estimate the probability of an outbreak occurrence and to identify preventive measures. METHODS: The study was carried out in a daycare center comprising 16 children, 13 susceptible, one infected and two children with acquired immunity by previous disease. A stochastic susceptible - infected - removed model was applied. The basic reproductive rate (R0) was estimated using the maximum likelihood method based on probability distribution for the total size of the epidemic and making an approach of almost complete epidemic. Based on R0, the theorem was applied to establish some preventive measures for preventing a chickenpox outbreak. RESULTS: Each initially infected subject produced three new cases of infection requiring minimum vaccination coverage of 62% to prevent the outbreak or to reduce in 62% the contact among members of the group or to increase in 170% removal of infected subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The stochastic threshold theorem allows to identifying measures that could be implemented to prevent and control chickenpox outbreaks. Although the distribution of the epidemic size showed similar probability of occurrence of large and small outbreaks in a typical bimodal pattern, it illustrates the uncertainty of epidemic process in small groups, requiring close detection of outbreaks in such groups. |
publishDate |
2006 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2006-08-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32112 10.1590/S0034-89102006000500015 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32112 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/S0034-89102006000500015 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
spa |
language |
spa |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32112/34185 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Pública info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Pública |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 40 No. 4 (2006); 656-662 Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 40 Núm. 4 (2006); 656-662 Revista de Saúde Pública; v. 40 n. 4 (2006); 656-662 1518-8787 0034-8910 reponame:Revista de Saúde Pública instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
revsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800221785278382080 |