Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Degallier, Nicolas
Data de Publicação: 2009
Outros Autores: Favier, Charly, Boulanger, Jean-Philippe, Menkes, Christophe
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Revista de Saúde Pública
Texto Completo: https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32561
Resumo: OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.
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spelling Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil Casos importados y autóctonos en la dinámica de epidemias de dengue en Brasil Casos importados e autóctones na dinâmica da epidemia de dengue no Brasil Dengue^i2^sepidemioloInfecções por Flavivirus^i2^stransmisRiscoPeríodo de TransmissibilidadeSurtos de DoençasVigilância EpidemológicaDengue^i3^sepidemioloInfecciones por Flavivirus^i3^stransmisRiesgoPeriodo de TransmisiónBrotes de EnfermedadesVigilancia EpidemiológicaDengue^i1^sepidemiolFlavivirus Infections^i1^stransmissRiskCommunicable PeriodDisease OutbreaksEpidemiologic Surveillance OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease. OBJETIVO: Estimar el número de reproducción básica (R0) de la fiebre del dengue incluyendo casos importados y autóctonos. MÉTODOS: El estudio fue realizado basándose en datos epidemiológicos de la epidemia del dengue ocurrida en Brasilia, Districto Federal de Brasil, en el 2003. El número de reproducción básica es estimado de la curva epidémica, fijando el incremento lineal de los casos iniciales. Señalando casos importados y autóctonos en una simulación epidémica, fue diseñado un compartimiento "infeccioso-susceptible-resistente", en el cual los casos importados fueron considerados una fuerza externa. La tasa entre R0 de casos importados versus casos autóctonos fue usado como una estimación real de R0. RESULTADOS: La comparación de ambos números de reproducción (sólo autóctonos versus todos los casos) mostró que considerando todos los casos como autóctonos produjo un R0 por encima de uno, a pesar de que el valor real de R0 era menor que uno. Los mismos resultados fueron obtenidos cuando se aplicó el método a epidemias simuladas con valor fijo de R0. Este método fue también comparado con métodos propuestos anteriormente por otros autores y mostró los mismos valores subestimados de R0. CONCLUSIONES: Fue demostrado que la inclusión de casos importados y autóctonos es crucial para el modelaje de dinámicas epidémicas, y que provee información crítica para aquellos que participan en la toma de decisiones en la prevención y control de esta enfermedad. OBJETIVO: Estimar o número básico de reprodução da dengue (R0), com base nos casos importados, além dos casos autóctones. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi feito sobre dados epidemiológicos da epidemia de dengue em Brasília, 2003. O número básico de reprodução é determinado a partir da curva epidêmica, ajustando uma reta ao crescimento inicial do número de casos. Para simular uma epidemia com casos autóctones e importados, foi criado um modelo compartimentado do tipo "suscetíveis-infectados-resistentes". O R0 real foi estimado pela fração entre R0 dos casos autóctones e dos importados. RESULTADOS: A comparação de ambos valores de reprodução (apenas autóctones versus todos os casos) mostrou que considerando todos casos como autóctones, o valor de R0 foi superior a um, enquanto o R0 real era inferior a um. O mesmo resultado foi obtido com o conjunto de dados simulando uma epidemia com R0 fixo. O método foi também comparado a outros, observando-se que estes últimos subestimaram os valores do R0. CONCLUSÕES: A inclusão de tanto casos autóctones como os importados é essencial para modelar a dinâmica da epidemia, possibilitando informação crítica aos tomadores de decisão, responsáveis pelo controle da doença. Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública2009-02-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/3256110.1590/S0034-89102009000100001Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 43 No. 1 (2009); 1-7 Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 43 Núm. 1 (2009); 1-7 Revista de Saúde Pública; v. 43 n. 1 (2009); 1-7 1518-87870034-8910reponame:Revista de Saúde Públicainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32561/34885Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Públicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessDegallier, NicolasFavier, CharlyBoulanger, Jean-PhilippeMenkes, Christophe2012-07-09T01:46:34Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/32561Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/indexONGhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/oairevsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br1518-87870034-8910opendoar:2012-07-09T01:46:34Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
Casos importados y autóctonos en la dinámica de epidemias de dengue en Brasil
Casos importados e autóctones na dinâmica da epidemia de dengue no Brasil
title Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
spellingShingle Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
Degallier, Nicolas
Dengue^i2^sepidemiolo
Infecções por Flavivirus^i2^stransmis
Risco
Período de Transmissibilidade
Surtos de Doenças
Vigilância Epidemológica
Dengue^i3^sepidemiolo
Infecciones por Flavivirus^i3^stransmis
Riesgo
Periodo de Transmisión
Brotes de Enfermedades
Vigilancia Epidemiológica
Dengue^i1^sepidemiol
Flavivirus Infections^i1^stransmiss
Risk
Communicable Period
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemiologic Surveillance
title_short Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
title_full Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
title_fullStr Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
title_sort Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil
author Degallier, Nicolas
author_facet Degallier, Nicolas
Favier, Charly
Boulanger, Jean-Philippe
Menkes, Christophe
author_role author
author2 Favier, Charly
Boulanger, Jean-Philippe
Menkes, Christophe
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Degallier, Nicolas
Favier, Charly
Boulanger, Jean-Philippe
Menkes, Christophe
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Dengue^i2^sepidemiolo
Infecções por Flavivirus^i2^stransmis
Risco
Período de Transmissibilidade
Surtos de Doenças
Vigilância Epidemológica
Dengue^i3^sepidemiolo
Infecciones por Flavivirus^i3^stransmis
Riesgo
Periodo de Transmisión
Brotes de Enfermedades
Vigilancia Epidemiológica
Dengue^i1^sepidemiol
Flavivirus Infections^i1^stransmiss
Risk
Communicable Period
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemiologic Surveillance
topic Dengue^i2^sepidemiolo
Infecções por Flavivirus^i2^stransmis
Risco
Período de Transmissibilidade
Surtos de Doenças
Vigilância Epidemológica
Dengue^i3^sepidemiolo
Infecciones por Flavivirus^i3^stransmis
Riesgo
Periodo de Transmisión
Brotes de Enfermedades
Vigilancia Epidemiológica
Dengue^i1^sepidemiol
Flavivirus Infections^i1^stransmiss
Risk
Communicable Period
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemiologic Surveillance
description OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.
publishDate 2009
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2009-02-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32561
10.1590/S0034-89102009000100001
url https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32561
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/S0034-89102009000100001
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/32561/34885
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Pública
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Pública
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 43 No. 1 (2009); 1-7
Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 43 Núm. 1 (2009); 1-7
Revista de Saúde Pública; v. 43 n. 1 (2009); 1-7
1518-8787
0034-8910
reponame:Revista de Saúde Pública
instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron:USP
instname_str Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron_str USP
institution USP
reponame_str Revista de Saúde Pública
collection Revista de Saúde Pública
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv revsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br
_version_ 1800221788525821952

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