Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102021000100276 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season – called amazon winter season –, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory. |
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Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – AmapáTuberculosis, epidemiologySpace-Time ClusteringSpatial AnalysisEcological StudiesABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season – called amazon winter season –, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo2021-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102021000100276Revista de Saúde Pública v.55 2021reponame:Revista de Saúde Públicainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USP10.11606/s1518-8787.2021055003431info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGiacomet,Clóvis LucianoSantos,Marcio SouzaBerra,Thaís ZamboniAlves,Yan MathiasAlves,Luana SelesCosta,Fernanda Bruzadelli Paulino daRamos,Antonio Carlos VieiraCrispim,Juliane de AlmeidaMonroe,Aline AparecidaPinto,Ione CarvalhoFiorati,Regina CéliaArcoverde,Marcos Augusto MoraesGomes,DulceFreitas,Giselle Lima deYamamura,MellinaArcêncio,Ricardo Alexandreeng2021-11-29T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0034-89102021000100276Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=0034-8910&lng=pt&nrm=isoONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phprevsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br1518-87870034-8910opendoar:2021-11-29T00:00Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá |
title |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá |
spellingShingle |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá Giacomet,Clóvis Luciano Tuberculosis, epidemiology Space-Time Clustering Spatial Analysis Ecological Studies |
title_short |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá |
title_full |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá |
title_fullStr |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá |
title_sort |
Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá – Amapá |
author |
Giacomet,Clóvis Luciano |
author_facet |
Giacomet,Clóvis Luciano Santos,Marcio Souza Berra,Thaís Zamboni Alves,Yan Mathias Alves,Luana Seles Costa,Fernanda Bruzadelli Paulino da Ramos,Antonio Carlos Vieira Crispim,Juliane de Almeida Monroe,Aline Aparecida Pinto,Ione Carvalho Fiorati,Regina Célia Arcoverde,Marcos Augusto Moraes Gomes,Dulce Freitas,Giselle Lima de Yamamura,Mellina Arcêncio,Ricardo Alexandre |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Santos,Marcio Souza Berra,Thaís Zamboni Alves,Yan Mathias Alves,Luana Seles Costa,Fernanda Bruzadelli Paulino da Ramos,Antonio Carlos Vieira Crispim,Juliane de Almeida Monroe,Aline Aparecida Pinto,Ione Carvalho Fiorati,Regina Célia Arcoverde,Marcos Augusto Moraes Gomes,Dulce Freitas,Giselle Lima de Yamamura,Mellina Arcêncio,Ricardo Alexandre |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Giacomet,Clóvis Luciano Santos,Marcio Souza Berra,Thaís Zamboni Alves,Yan Mathias Alves,Luana Seles Costa,Fernanda Bruzadelli Paulino da Ramos,Antonio Carlos Vieira Crispim,Juliane de Almeida Monroe,Aline Aparecida Pinto,Ione Carvalho Fiorati,Regina Célia Arcoverde,Marcos Augusto Moraes Gomes,Dulce Freitas,Giselle Lima de Yamamura,Mellina Arcêncio,Ricardo Alexandre |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Tuberculosis, epidemiology Space-Time Clustering Spatial Analysis Ecological Studies |
topic |
Tuberculosis, epidemiology Space-Time Clustering Spatial Analysis Ecological Studies |
description |
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season – called amazon winter season –, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102021000100276 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102021000100276 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.11606/s1518-8787.2021055003431 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública v.55 2021 reponame:Revista de Saúde Pública instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
revsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br |
_version_ |
1748936506604519424 |