Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2005 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/31944 |
Resumo: | OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of and groups vulnerable to cocaine use in prison. METHODS: We selected 376 inmates with history of cocaine use in prison (cases) and 938 inmates with no history of drug use (controls) serving sentences in the Rio de Janeiro State prison system in 1998. The analysis included exposure variables divided into three hierarchical levels: distal, intermediate, and proximal. We performed bivariate analysis using logistic regression and multivariate analysis using hierarchized regression; results are given in odds ratios. RESULTS: Variables associated with cocaine use in prison in the proximal level were use of alcohol and marijuana and duration of imprisonment in years. The effect of social vulnerability variables (distal level) was intermediated by variables in the next levels. Considering only the distal and intermediate levels, use of marijuana prior to imprisonment (OR=4.50; 95% CI: 3.17-6.41) and offence in order to obtain drugs (OR=2.96; 95% CI: 1.79-4.90) showed the strongest association with the outcome. For every additional year spent in prison, the odds of cocaine use increase by 13% (OR=1.13; 95% CI: 1.06-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the distal and intermediate levels, use of marijuana prior to imprisonment and perpetration of offence in order to obtain drugs were the variables with greatest predictive value. The final model showed alcohol and marijuana use in prison and duration of imprisonment as important predictors of the outcome. The prison environment appears as a factor stimulating drug use. |
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Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Modelo preditivo do uso de cocaína em prisões do Estado do Rio de Janeiro Transtornos relacionados ao uso de cocaínaAlcoolismoHábito de fumar maconhaPrisõesAnálise multivariada hierarquizadaFatores de riscoVulnerabilidade socialCocaine-related disordersAlcoholismMarijuana smokingPrisonsHierarchized multivariate analysisRisk factorsSocial vulnerability OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of and groups vulnerable to cocaine use in prison. METHODS: We selected 376 inmates with history of cocaine use in prison (cases) and 938 inmates with no history of drug use (controls) serving sentences in the Rio de Janeiro State prison system in 1998. The analysis included exposure variables divided into three hierarchical levels: distal, intermediate, and proximal. We performed bivariate analysis using logistic regression and multivariate analysis using hierarchized regression; results are given in odds ratios. RESULTS: Variables associated with cocaine use in prison in the proximal level were use of alcohol and marijuana and duration of imprisonment in years. The effect of social vulnerability variables (distal level) was intermediated by variables in the next levels. Considering only the distal and intermediate levels, use of marijuana prior to imprisonment (OR=4.50; 95% CI: 3.17-6.41) and offence in order to obtain drugs (OR=2.96; 95% CI: 1.79-4.90) showed the strongest association with the outcome. For every additional year spent in prison, the odds of cocaine use increase by 13% (OR=1.13; 95% CI: 1.06-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the distal and intermediate levels, use of marijuana prior to imprisonment and perpetration of offence in order to obtain drugs were the variables with greatest predictive value. The final model showed alcohol and marijuana use in prison and duration of imprisonment as important predictors of the outcome. The prison environment appears as a factor stimulating drug use. OBJETIVO: Identificar variáveis preditoras e grupos mais vulneráveis ao uso de cocaína em prisão. MÉTODOS: Foram selecionados 376 presos com história de uso de cocaína em prisão (casos) e 938 presos sem história de uso de cocaína na vida (controles), que cumpriam pena no sistema penitenciário do Rio de Janeiro em 1998. A análise considerou as variáveis de exposição em três níveis de hierarquia: distal, intermediário e proximal. Na análise bivariada utilizou-se regressão logística e na multivariada, regressão hierarquizada, resultando em valores de odds ratio. RESULTADOS: As variáveis associadas ao uso de cocaína na prisão, no nível proximal, foram uso de álcool e maconha e tempo de reclusão em anos. O efeito das variáveis de vulnerabilidade social (nível distal) é intermediado pelas variáveis dos níveis seguintes. Considerando apenas os níveis distal e intermediário, o uso de maconha antes de ser preso (OR=4,50; IC 95%: 3,17-6,41) e o fato de ter cometido delito para obter droga (OR=2,96; IC 95%: 1,79-4,90) são as mais fortemente associadas ao desfecho. Para cada ano a mais que se passa na prisão, a chance de usar cocaína aumenta em 13% (OR=1,13; IC 95%: 1,06-1,21). CONCLUSÕES: Considerando os níveis distal e intermediário, o uso de maconha antes da prisão e delito para obtenção de droga foram as variáveis com maior poder de predição. O modelo final revelou o uso de álcool, de maconha na prisão e o tempo de cumprimento de pena são importantes preditores do desfecho. O ambiente carcerário aparece como fator estimulante da continuidade do uso de drogas. Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública2005-10-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/3194410.1590/S0034-89102005000500019Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 39 No. 5 (2005); 824-831 Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 39 Núm. 5 (2005); 824-831 Revista de Saúde Pública; v. 39 n. 5 (2005); 824-831 1518-87870034-8910reponame:Revista de Saúde Públicainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPporenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/31944/33937https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/31944/33938Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Públicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCarvalho, Márcia Lazaro deValente, Joaquim GonçalvesAssis, Simone Gonçalves deVasconcelos, Ana Glória Godoi2012-07-08T22:47:36Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/31944Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/indexONGhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/oairevsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br1518-87870034-8910opendoar:2012-07-08T22:47:36Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Modelo preditivo do uso de cocaína em prisões do Estado do Rio de Janeiro |
title |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Carvalho, Márcia Lazaro de Transtornos relacionados ao uso de cocaína Alcoolismo Hábito de fumar maconha Prisões Análise multivariada hierarquizada Fatores de risco Vulnerabilidade social Cocaine-related disorders Alcoholism Marijuana smoking Prisons Hierarchized multivariate analysis Risk factors Social vulnerability |
title_short |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
title_full |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
title_sort |
Predictive model for cocaine use in prisons in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
author |
Carvalho, Márcia Lazaro de |
author_facet |
Carvalho, Márcia Lazaro de Valente, Joaquim Gonçalves Assis, Simone Gonçalves de Vasconcelos, Ana Glória Godoi |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Valente, Joaquim Gonçalves Assis, Simone Gonçalves de Vasconcelos, Ana Glória Godoi |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Carvalho, Márcia Lazaro de Valente, Joaquim Gonçalves Assis, Simone Gonçalves de Vasconcelos, Ana Glória Godoi |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Transtornos relacionados ao uso de cocaína Alcoolismo Hábito de fumar maconha Prisões Análise multivariada hierarquizada Fatores de risco Vulnerabilidade social Cocaine-related disorders Alcoholism Marijuana smoking Prisons Hierarchized multivariate analysis Risk factors Social vulnerability |
topic |
Transtornos relacionados ao uso de cocaína Alcoolismo Hábito de fumar maconha Prisões Análise multivariada hierarquizada Fatores de risco Vulnerabilidade social Cocaine-related disorders Alcoholism Marijuana smoking Prisons Hierarchized multivariate analysis Risk factors Social vulnerability |
description |
OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of and groups vulnerable to cocaine use in prison. METHODS: We selected 376 inmates with history of cocaine use in prison (cases) and 938 inmates with no history of drug use (controls) serving sentences in the Rio de Janeiro State prison system in 1998. The analysis included exposure variables divided into three hierarchical levels: distal, intermediate, and proximal. We performed bivariate analysis using logistic regression and multivariate analysis using hierarchized regression; results are given in odds ratios. RESULTS: Variables associated with cocaine use in prison in the proximal level were use of alcohol and marijuana and duration of imprisonment in years. The effect of social vulnerability variables (distal level) was intermediated by variables in the next levels. Considering only the distal and intermediate levels, use of marijuana prior to imprisonment (OR=4.50; 95% CI: 3.17-6.41) and offence in order to obtain drugs (OR=2.96; 95% CI: 1.79-4.90) showed the strongest association with the outcome. For every additional year spent in prison, the odds of cocaine use increase by 13% (OR=1.13; 95% CI: 1.06-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the distal and intermediate levels, use of marijuana prior to imprisonment and perpetration of offence in order to obtain drugs were the variables with greatest predictive value. The final model showed alcohol and marijuana use in prison and duration of imprisonment as important predictors of the outcome. The prison environment appears as a factor stimulating drug use. |
publishDate |
2005 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2005-10-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/31944 10.1590/S0034-89102005000500019 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/31944 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/S0034-89102005000500019 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por eng |
language |
por eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/31944/33937 https://www.revistas.usp.br/rsp/article/view/31944/33938 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Pública info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Saúde Pública |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Saúde Pública |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 39 No. 5 (2005); 824-831 Revista de Saúde Pública; Vol. 39 Núm. 5 (2005); 824-831 Revista de Saúde Pública; v. 39 n. 5 (2005); 824-831 1518-8787 0034-8910 reponame:Revista de Saúde Pública instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Revista de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Saúde Pública - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
revsp@org.usp.br||revsp1@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800221783776821248 |