An evaluation on the applicability of a credit scoring model, with systemic and non-systemic variables in revolving bank credit portfolio for individuals

• Autor(a) principal: Santos, José Odálio dos
• Data de Publicação: 2007
• Outros Autores: Famá, Rubens
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/34237
• topic: Pessoas Físicas; Crédito; Risco; Retorno; Inadimplência; Consumers; Credit; Risk; Return; Insolvency

The concessions of revolving credit to consumers (guaranteed check and credit card) have been growing significantly in the last few years, which is in part explained by the relative stabilization of the economy, higher levels of job creation and success in controlling inflation - factors that have a direct influence in the borrowers’ payment capability. Likewise, a more significant historical exposition of the banks to insolvency risk is being observed, such as the risk of not getting paid (partially or totally) and the revolving credit borrowed by consumers. Considering the size and the importance of this market to the great commercial banks and to the economy as a whole, the scope of this research comprises the following points: 1. detailing the processes of subjective and objective credit analysis carried out by the main domestic private banks; 2. approaching the selective function of interest rates in revolving credits; 3. highlighting the main characteristics of credit scoring models; and 4. proposing a model of credit scoring for revolving credits. This model is based on systemic and non-systemic variables and directed to the reduction of insolvency risk. The applicability of the credit scoring model proposed in a sample, extracted from the consumers credit portfolio which belongs to an important medium size Brazilian private commercial bank (Bank X - fictitious name), presented a satisfactory accuracy level in the identification of prospective (96%) and non-prospective (92%) clients, which led to the conclusion that it included and considered adequately the representative variables of borrowers’ payment capability.