An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Costa, José Isidio de Freitas
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Santos, Josenildo dos, Travassos, Silvana Karina de Melo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
eng
Título da fonte: Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online)
Texto Completo: https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/53074
Resumo: The following question is investigated in this study: Are there significant deviations in the distribution of the 1st and 2nd digits of state public spending from the behavior predicted by the Newcomb-Benford Law (NB-Law)? The goal of this study is to detect the occurrence of significant deviations in the distribution of the 1st and 2nd digits of state public spending compared to the standard distribution defined in the NB-Law. This study develops an interdisciplinary and exploratory methodology to analyze 134,281 contracts issued by 20 management units in two states. An accounting model based on hypothesis testing was applied to analyze the data, thereby evaluating the conformity between the observed distribution and that predicated by NB-Law. This study showed that there were significant differences in the distribution of digits; the numbers 7 and 8 had excess occurrences, and 9 and 6 were rare occurrences compared to the proportions expected by the NB-Law for the 1st figure. This behavior denoted a tendency to avoid conducting the bidding process. The analysis of the 2nd digit, unprecedented for the Brazilian case, showed a significant excess of occurrences for the numbers 0 and 5, which indicated the use of rounding in determining the value of contracts. We show the feasibility, usefulness, and practicality of applying the NB-Law to the action of oversight bodies, particularly when planning an audit and determining the audited sample.
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spelling An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States Análise de conformidade nos gastos públicos dos entes federativos: aplicação da lei de newcomb-benford para o primeiro e segundo dígitos dos gastos em dois estados brasileiros Gasto públicoLei de Newcomb-BenfordSegundo dígitoAuditoria contínuaPublic SpendingNewcomb-Benford LawSecond digitContinuous auditing The following question is investigated in this study: Are there significant deviations in the distribution of the 1st and 2nd digits of state public spending from the behavior predicted by the Newcomb-Benford Law (NB-Law)? The goal of this study is to detect the occurrence of significant deviations in the distribution of the 1st and 2nd digits of state public spending compared to the standard distribution defined in the NB-Law. This study develops an interdisciplinary and exploratory methodology to analyze 134,281 contracts issued by 20 management units in two states. An accounting model based on hypothesis testing was applied to analyze the data, thereby evaluating the conformity between the observed distribution and that predicated by NB-Law. This study showed that there were significant differences in the distribution of digits; the numbers 7 and 8 had excess occurrences, and 9 and 6 were rare occurrences compared to the proportions expected by the NB-Law for the 1st figure. This behavior denoted a tendency to avoid conducting the bidding process. The analysis of the 2nd digit, unprecedented for the Brazilian case, showed a significant excess of occurrences for the numbers 0 and 5, which indicated the use of rounding in determining the value of contracts. We show the feasibility, usefulness, and practicality of applying the NB-Law to the action of oversight bodies, particularly when planning an audit and determining the audited sample. A questão investigada no presente artigo estrutura-se da seguinte forma: Existem desvios significativos na distribuição do primeiro e segundo dígitos dos gastos públicos estaduais em relação ao comportamento previsto pela Lei de Newcomb-Benford? O objetivo do artigo consiste em detectar a ocorrência de desvios significativos na distribuição do primeiro e segundo dígitos dos gastos públicos estaduais em relação à distribuição-padrão definida na Lei de Newcomb-Benford - NB-Lei. Este artigo desenvolve uma metodologia interdisciplinar e exploratória para analisar 134.281 notas de empenhos emitidas por 20 Unidades Gestoras de dois estados. Foi aplicado, para a análise dos dados, um modelo contabilométrico fundamentado em testes de hipóteses, avaliando-se a conformidade entre a distribuição observada e a prevista na NB-Lei. Como resultado da pesquisa, constatou-se a existência de desvios significativos na distribuição dos algarismos: 7 e 8, excesso de ocorrências; e 9 e 6, escassez de ocorrências em relação à proporção esperada pela NB-Lei para o primeiro dígito. Tal comportamento denota uma tendência de fuga à realização dos processos licitatórios. A análise do segundo dígito, de forma inédita para o caso brasileiro, mostrou um excesso significativo de ocorrências para os algarismos 0 e 5, indicando a utilização de arredondamentos na determinação dos valores dos empenhos. Mostra-se a viabilidade, utilidade e praticidade na aplicação da NB-Lei à ação dos órgãos de controle externo, sobretudo quanto ao planejamento da auditoria e determinação da amostra auditada. Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária2012-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/5307410.1590/S1519-70772012000300004Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; v. 23 n. 60 (2012); 187-198 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 23 No. 60 (2012); 187-198 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 23 Núm. 60 (2012); 187-198 1808-057X1519-7077reponame:Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online)instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPporenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/53074/57131https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/53074/57132Copyright (c) 2018 Revista Contabilidade & Finançasinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCosta, José Isidio de FreitasSantos, Josenildo dosTravassos, Silvana Karina de Melo2013-04-08T16:54:23Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/53074Revistahttp://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/indexPUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phprecont@usp.br||recont@usp.br1808-057X1519-7077opendoar:2013-04-08T16:54:23Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
Análise de conformidade nos gastos públicos dos entes federativos: aplicação da lei de newcomb-benford para o primeiro e segundo dígitos dos gastos em dois estados brasileiros
title An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
spellingShingle An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
Costa, José Isidio de Freitas
Gasto público
Lei de Newcomb-Benford
Segundo dígito
Auditoria contínua
Public Spending
Newcomb-Benford Law
Second digit
Continuous auditing
title_short An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
title_full An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
title_fullStr An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
title_full_unstemmed An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
title_sort An analysis of federal entities' compliance with public spending: applying the newcomb-benford law to the 1st and 2nd digits of spending in two Brazilian States
author Costa, José Isidio de Freitas
author_facet Costa, José Isidio de Freitas
Santos, Josenildo dos
Travassos, Silvana Karina de Melo
author_role author
author2 Santos, Josenildo dos
Travassos, Silvana Karina de Melo
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Costa, José Isidio de Freitas
Santos, Josenildo dos
Travassos, Silvana Karina de Melo
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Gasto público
Lei de Newcomb-Benford
Segundo dígito
Auditoria contínua
Public Spending
Newcomb-Benford Law
Second digit
Continuous auditing
topic Gasto público
Lei de Newcomb-Benford
Segundo dígito
Auditoria contínua
Public Spending
Newcomb-Benford Law
Second digit
Continuous auditing
description The following question is investigated in this study: Are there significant deviations in the distribution of the 1st and 2nd digits of state public spending from the behavior predicted by the Newcomb-Benford Law (NB-Law)? The goal of this study is to detect the occurrence of significant deviations in the distribution of the 1st and 2nd digits of state public spending compared to the standard distribution defined in the NB-Law. This study develops an interdisciplinary and exploratory methodology to analyze 134,281 contracts issued by 20 management units in two states. An accounting model based on hypothesis testing was applied to analyze the data, thereby evaluating the conformity between the observed distribution and that predicated by NB-Law. This study showed that there were significant differences in the distribution of digits; the numbers 7 and 8 had excess occurrences, and 9 and 6 were rare occurrences compared to the proportions expected by the NB-Law for the 1st figure. This behavior denoted a tendency to avoid conducting the bidding process. The analysis of the 2nd digit, unprecedented for the Brazilian case, showed a significant excess of occurrences for the numbers 0 and 5, which indicated the use of rounding in determining the value of contracts. We show the feasibility, usefulness, and practicality of applying the NB-Law to the action of oversight bodies, particularly when planning an audit and determining the audited sample.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012-12-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/53074
10.1590/S1519-70772012000300004
url https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/53074
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/S1519-70772012000300004
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
eng
language por
eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/53074/57131
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/53074/57132
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2018 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2018 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; v. 23 n. 60 (2012); 187-198
Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 23 No. 60 (2012); 187-198
Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 23 Núm. 60 (2012); 187-198
1808-057X
1519-7077
reponame:Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online)
instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron:USP
instname_str Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron_str USP
institution USP
reponame_str Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online)
collection Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv recont@usp.br||recont@usp.br
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