Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
Texto Completo: | http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/21/21135/tde-17122019-115622/ |
Resumo: | This thesis investigates the physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System (SSVBES) using observed and modeled data. The goals of this study are: the description and validation of the Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) implemented to monitor and predict short-term (< 3 days) sea surface elevations and surface currents in the SSVBES (Chapter 2); the characterization of the physical processes of the estuarine dynamics in the SSVBES focused in the Porto Channel (Chapter 3); and the assessment of possible climate change-induced storm tide modifications in terms of number and intensity of events in the SSVBES (Chapter 4). The observed data used for this analysis include real-time sea surface elevations and surface currents collected by the Santos Pilots in stations placed along the Porto Channel; and the hydrographic and current measurements from the ECOSAN cruises collected at the entrance of the same channel. The numerical simulations were performed with the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) version POM-rain. The implementation of the model comprises two one-way nested grids, a coarse resolution for the South Brazil Bight (SBB) and a high resolution grid for the SSVBES. The SBB grid is forced by winds, density gradients and the Brazil Current flowing offshore. The SSVBES grid is forced by the SBB elevations and density fields, tides, winds and river runoff. The performance of the SOFS, tested in Chapter 2, showed that the accuracy of modeled sea level and surface currents reaches O (10) cm and O (10) cm/s, respectively. Seven recent (since 2016) storm tides were simulated with average skills of 0.95 and average root mean square errors of 17.0 cm. The SOFS is the first operational system in the SSVBES able to simulate and predict the 3D currents within the estuary, also nested in an unprecedented forecasting system for the SBB region named PreAMar (http://preamar.io.usp.br/en). The results of Chapter 3 revealed that the Porto Channel behaves as a partially mixed estuary, being synchronous and tide-dominated, where tides propagate along the estuary mostly as a standing wave. In Chapter 4, the storm tides in the SSVBES were studied at both present and future conditions under two of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for the end of the 21st century. The results showed that the storm tides in the SSVBES may increase in number but not in intensity, which may be comparable to the actual strengths. The sea level rise was the responsible for this conclusion whereas the expected changes in atmospheric circulation fields alone would produce less frequent and less intense storm tides. |
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Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecastsProcessos físicos no Sistema Estuarino de Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga: de observações a previsõesClimate ChangeEstuariesEstuáriosModelagem numéricaMudanças climáticasNumerical modelingOperational forecastingPlataforma Continental SudestePrevisão OperacionalRessacasSantosSantosSouth Brazil BightStorm tidesThis thesis investigates the physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System (SSVBES) using observed and modeled data. The goals of this study are: the description and validation of the Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) implemented to monitor and predict short-term (< 3 days) sea surface elevations and surface currents in the SSVBES (Chapter 2); the characterization of the physical processes of the estuarine dynamics in the SSVBES focused in the Porto Channel (Chapter 3); and the assessment of possible climate change-induced storm tide modifications in terms of number and intensity of events in the SSVBES (Chapter 4). The observed data used for this analysis include real-time sea surface elevations and surface currents collected by the Santos Pilots in stations placed along the Porto Channel; and the hydrographic and current measurements from the ECOSAN cruises collected at the entrance of the same channel. The numerical simulations were performed with the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) version POM-rain. The implementation of the model comprises two one-way nested grids, a coarse resolution for the South Brazil Bight (SBB) and a high resolution grid for the SSVBES. The SBB grid is forced by winds, density gradients and the Brazil Current flowing offshore. The SSVBES grid is forced by the SBB elevations and density fields, tides, winds and river runoff. The performance of the SOFS, tested in Chapter 2, showed that the accuracy of modeled sea level and surface currents reaches O (10) cm and O (10) cm/s, respectively. Seven recent (since 2016) storm tides were simulated with average skills of 0.95 and average root mean square errors of 17.0 cm. The SOFS is the first operational system in the SSVBES able to simulate and predict the 3D currents within the estuary, also nested in an unprecedented forecasting system for the SBB region named PreAMar (http://preamar.io.usp.br/en). The results of Chapter 3 revealed that the Porto Channel behaves as a partially mixed estuary, being synchronous and tide-dominated, where tides propagate along the estuary mostly as a standing wave. In Chapter 4, the storm tides in the SSVBES were studied at both present and future conditions under two of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for the end of the 21st century. The results showed that the storm tides in the SSVBES may increase in number but not in intensity, which may be comparable to the actual strengths. The sea level rise was the responsible for this conclusion whereas the expected changes in atmospheric circulation fields alone would produce less frequent and less intense storm tides.Esta tese investiga os processos físicos no Sistema Estuarino de Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga (SESSVB) utilizando dados observados e resultados de modelo. Os objetivos deste estudo são: a descrição e a validação do Sistema de Previsão Operacional de Santos (SPOS), implementado para monitorar e prever variações de curto período (< 3 dias) das elevações da superfície do mar e das correntes superficiais no SESSVB (Capítulo 2); a caracterização dos processos físicos da dinâmica estuarina do SESSVB, com foco no Canal do Porto (Capítulo 3); a avaliação de possíveis alterações no número e na intensidade das ressacas no SESSVB provocadas por mudanças climáticas (Capítulo 4). Os dados observados utilizados nestas análises incluem dados de nível do mar e correntes superficiais, obtidos em tempo real pela Praticagem de Santos ao longo do Canal do Porto, bem como dados hidrográficos e correntográficos coletados pelos cruzeiros do ECOSAN na entrada do Canal do Porto. As simulações numéricas foram realizadas utilizando a versão do modelo Princeton Ocean Model (POM) nomeada POM-rain. A implementação do modelo compreende duas grades aninhadas em uma direção, uma de menor resolução para a Plataforma Continental Sudeste (PCSE) e outra de maior resolução para o SESSVB. A grade da PCSE é forçada por ventos, gradientes de densidade e pela Corrente do Brasil que flui como corrente de contorno oeste. A grade do SESSVB é forçada pelo nível do mar e pelos campos de densidade provenientes da PCSE, marés, ventos e descargas fluviais. O desempenho do SPOS, testado no Capítulo 2, mostrou que a acurácia do nível do mar modelado e das correntes superficiais alcançam O (10) cm e O (10) cm/s, respectivamente. Sete ressacas recentes (desde 2016) foram simuladas com valores médios de skill iguais a 0.95 e erros quadráticos médios de 17.0 cm. O SPOS é o primeiro sistema operacional no SESSVB capaz de simular e prever as correntes 3D no estuário, que também é aninhado no sistema inédito de previsão do mar para a região da PCSE nomeado PreAMar (http://preamar.io.usp.br). Os resultados do Capítulo 3 revelaram que o Canal do Porto se comporta como um estuário parcialmente misturado, síncrono e dominado por maré, cuja propagação ao longo do estuário tem características predominantes de uma onda estacionária. No Capítulo 4, as ressacas no SESSVB foram estudadas em condições atuais e futuras, para o final do século XXI, sob dois cenários denominados Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, do acrônimo em inglês). Os resultados mostraram que as ressacas no SESSVB devem aumentar em número, mas não em intensidade, com forças comparáveis às ressacas atuais. A elevação do nível do mar foi a principal responsável por esta conclusão, enquanto que as mudanças esperadas na circulação atmosférica, se consideradas isoladamente, produziriam ressacas menos frequentes e menos intensas.Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USPBlumberg, Alan FredCastro Filho, Belmiro Mendes deCosta, Carine de Godoi Rezende2019-07-04info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisapplication/pdfhttp://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/21/21135/tde-17122019-115622/reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USPinstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPLiberar o conteúdo para acesso público.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesseng2019-12-20T16:22:01Zoai:teses.usp.br:tde-17122019-115622Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://www.teses.usp.br/PUBhttp://www.teses.usp.br/cgi-bin/mtd2br.plvirginia@if.usp.br|| atendimento@aguia.usp.br||virginia@if.usp.bropendoar:27212019-12-20T16:22:01Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts Processos físicos no Sistema Estuarino de Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga: de observações a previsões |
title |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts |
spellingShingle |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts Costa, Carine de Godoi Rezende Climate Change Estuaries Estuários Modelagem numérica Mudanças climáticas Numerical modeling Operational forecasting Plataforma Continental Sudeste Previsão Operacional Ressacas Santos Santos South Brazil Bight Storm tides |
title_short |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts |
title_full |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts |
title_sort |
Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts |
author |
Costa, Carine de Godoi Rezende |
author_facet |
Costa, Carine de Godoi Rezende |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Blumberg, Alan Fred Castro Filho, Belmiro Mendes de |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Costa, Carine de Godoi Rezende |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate Change Estuaries Estuários Modelagem numérica Mudanças climáticas Numerical modeling Operational forecasting Plataforma Continental Sudeste Previsão Operacional Ressacas Santos Santos South Brazil Bight Storm tides |
topic |
Climate Change Estuaries Estuários Modelagem numérica Mudanças climáticas Numerical modeling Operational forecasting Plataforma Continental Sudeste Previsão Operacional Ressacas Santos Santos South Brazil Bight Storm tides |
description |
This thesis investigates the physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System (SSVBES) using observed and modeled data. The goals of this study are: the description and validation of the Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) implemented to monitor and predict short-term (< 3 days) sea surface elevations and surface currents in the SSVBES (Chapter 2); the characterization of the physical processes of the estuarine dynamics in the SSVBES focused in the Porto Channel (Chapter 3); and the assessment of possible climate change-induced storm tide modifications in terms of number and intensity of events in the SSVBES (Chapter 4). The observed data used for this analysis include real-time sea surface elevations and surface currents collected by the Santos Pilots in stations placed along the Porto Channel; and the hydrographic and current measurements from the ECOSAN cruises collected at the entrance of the same channel. The numerical simulations were performed with the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) version POM-rain. The implementation of the model comprises two one-way nested grids, a coarse resolution for the South Brazil Bight (SBB) and a high resolution grid for the SSVBES. The SBB grid is forced by winds, density gradients and the Brazil Current flowing offshore. The SSVBES grid is forced by the SBB elevations and density fields, tides, winds and river runoff. The performance of the SOFS, tested in Chapter 2, showed that the accuracy of modeled sea level and surface currents reaches O (10) cm and O (10) cm/s, respectively. Seven recent (since 2016) storm tides were simulated with average skills of 0.95 and average root mean square errors of 17.0 cm. The SOFS is the first operational system in the SSVBES able to simulate and predict the 3D currents within the estuary, also nested in an unprecedented forecasting system for the SBB region named PreAMar (http://preamar.io.usp.br/en). The results of Chapter 3 revealed that the Porto Channel behaves as a partially mixed estuary, being synchronous and tide-dominated, where tides propagate along the estuary mostly as a standing wave. In Chapter 4, the storm tides in the SSVBES were studied at both present and future conditions under two of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for the end of the 21st century. The results showed that the storm tides in the SSVBES may increase in number but not in intensity, which may be comparable to the actual strengths. The sea level rise was the responsible for this conclusion whereas the expected changes in atmospheric circulation fields alone would produce less frequent and less intense storm tides. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-07-04 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/21/21135/tde-17122019-115622/ |
url |
http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/21/21135/tde-17122019-115622/ |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
|
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Liberar o conteúdo para acesso público. info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Liberar o conteúdo para acesso público. |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv |
|
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
collection |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
virginia@if.usp.br|| atendimento@aguia.usp.br||virginia@if.usp.br |
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1809090818347106304 |