Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Nataliya Dimitrova Popova
Data de Publicação: 2017
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.11606/T.11.2017.tde-29092017-160029
Resumo: The recent trends in the international crude oil price have brought back the interest of researchers to the importance of the practiced by the government fuel pricing policy for the domestic economy, especially in the developing world. Brazil constitutes a particularly interesting case when it comes to the government participation in the domestic fuel sectors. The state-owned oil company Petrobras acts as a price-setter for all petroleum derivatives sold in the country. This policy, however, has had severe negative consequences for the Brazilian fuel sector and especially for the domestic ethanol industry. Thus, the main goal of this study is to provide a basis for the development of a reformed pricing policy, which is more suitable for the needs of the country and does not have severe negative impact on the domestic economy. For this purpose, this work is divided into three chapters that interrelate and contribute for the achieving of the objective. The first chapter focuses on a comparative analysis of the dynamic correlation between the domestic fuel prices and international crude oil in Brazil, Germany and the United States. The results of the performed MGARCH-DCC estimation for the three countries provide empirical evidence for the differences existing between the pass-through of volatility from international oil markets to the domestic economy. The artificially established by the government ex-refinery prices of petroleum derivatives in Brazil led to lower correlation in comparison to Germany and the U.S. - two countries where the government does not intervene in the formation of the prices of petroleum derivatives. The used combination of free fuel prices and flexible fiscal policy, as the case of Germany, can induce competitiveness in the domestic fuel sector and at the same time keep domestic prices stable - an example that should be considered by policy makers in Brazil. The second chapter goes one step further by including the biofuel sectors in the analysis in order to verify if there exist differences in the biofuel-related price transmission mechanisms in the three countries of interest. The obtained results of the performed cointegration tests and estimation of VECM show that while in Brazil and in the U.S. the ethanol sectors are characterized by a stable relationship between the examined price series, in Germany such a strong and permanent link is not observed - a result that can be attributed to the changes in the policy regarding biofuels in the country, as well as to the specific characteristics of its biofuel-related sectors. The third chapter of the study gives a continuation to the analysis by focusing on the situation in Brazil and the hypothetical effects of a free fuel pricing policy. A simulated free gasoline price for the period between 2007 and 2016 is constructed and the hypothetical responses of the ethanol sector are calculated, using the obtained by the estimation of a structural VEC model demand elasticities. The results show that such a change in the policy would have led to higher ethanol prices in the state of São Paulo, making it more profitable for sugarcane producers to engage in the production of biofuel instead of sugar, which would have been beneficial for the sector, especially after 2011 when it entered a severe crisis. The final conclusion of this work is that there is a need for reformulating the practiced fuel pricing policy in Brazil in order to help ethanol regain its previous competitiveness as a substitute for conventional fossil fuels and to reestablish itself in the country\'s energy matrix.
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spelling info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy Combustíveis e biocombustíveis no Brasil - comparação com países desenvolvidos e análise de uma política de preços livres dos combustíveis 2017-05-23Joao Gomes Martines FilhoMirian Rumenos Piedade BacchiDaniel Henrique Dario CapitaniPlinio Mario NastariNataliya Dimitrova PopovaUniversidade de São PauloCiências (Economia Aplicada)USPBR Biocombustíveis Biofuels Comparação entre países diferentes Country comparison Fuel pricing policy Política de formação de preços The recent trends in the international crude oil price have brought back the interest of researchers to the importance of the practiced by the government fuel pricing policy for the domestic economy, especially in the developing world. Brazil constitutes a particularly interesting case when it comes to the government participation in the domestic fuel sectors. The state-owned oil company Petrobras acts as a price-setter for all petroleum derivatives sold in the country. This policy, however, has had severe negative consequences for the Brazilian fuel sector and especially for the domestic ethanol industry. Thus, the main goal of this study is to provide a basis for the development of a reformed pricing policy, which is more suitable for the needs of the country and does not have severe negative impact on the domestic economy. For this purpose, this work is divided into three chapters that interrelate and contribute for the achieving of the objective. The first chapter focuses on a comparative analysis of the dynamic correlation between the domestic fuel prices and international crude oil in Brazil, Germany and the United States. The results of the performed MGARCH-DCC estimation for the three countries provide empirical evidence for the differences existing between the pass-through of volatility from international oil markets to the domestic economy. The artificially established by the government ex-refinery prices of petroleum derivatives in Brazil led to lower correlation in comparison to Germany and the U.S. - two countries where the government does not intervene in the formation of the prices of petroleum derivatives. The used combination of free fuel prices and flexible fiscal policy, as the case of Germany, can induce competitiveness in the domestic fuel sector and at the same time keep domestic prices stable - an example that should be considered by policy makers in Brazil. The second chapter goes one step further by including the biofuel sectors in the analysis in order to verify if there exist differences in the biofuel-related price transmission mechanisms in the three countries of interest. The obtained results of the performed cointegration tests and estimation of VECM show that while in Brazil and in the U.S. the ethanol sectors are characterized by a stable relationship between the examined price series, in Germany such a strong and permanent link is not observed - a result that can be attributed to the changes in the policy regarding biofuels in the country, as well as to the specific characteristics of its biofuel-related sectors. The third chapter of the study gives a continuation to the analysis by focusing on the situation in Brazil and the hypothetical effects of a free fuel pricing policy. A simulated free gasoline price for the period between 2007 and 2016 is constructed and the hypothetical responses of the ethanol sector are calculated, using the obtained by the estimation of a structural VEC model demand elasticities. The results show that such a change in the policy would have led to higher ethanol prices in the state of São Paulo, making it more profitable for sugarcane producers to engage in the production of biofuel instead of sugar, which would have been beneficial for the sector, especially after 2011 when it entered a severe crisis. The final conclusion of this work is that there is a need for reformulating the practiced fuel pricing policy in Brazil in order to help ethanol regain its previous competitiveness as a substitute for conventional fossil fuels and to reestablish itself in the country\'s energy matrix. As recentes tendências do preço internacional do petróleo renovaram o interesse dos pesquisadores na importância da política de formação de preços de combustíveis praticada pelo governo para a economia doméstica, especialmente em países em desenvolvimento. O Brasil constitui um caso particularmente interessante no contexto de intervenção do governo em setores domésticos de combustíveis: A empresa petrolífera estatal Petrobras atua como price-setter para todos os derivados de petróleo comercializados no país. Essa política, no entanto, trouxe graves conseqüências negativas para o setor brasileiro de combustíveis - e especialmente para a indústria nacional de etanol. Nesse contexto, o principal objetivo deste estudo foi fornecer uma base para o desenvolvimento de uma política de preços reformada, que seja mais adequada às necessidades do país e não tenha um impacto tão negativo para a economia doméstica. Para tanto, a presente pesquisa foi dividida em três capítulos distintos. O primeiro capítulo aborda uma análise comparativa da correlação dinâmica entre os preços domésticos dos combustíveis e o preço internacional do petróleo para o Brasil, a Alemanha e os Estados Unidos. Os resultados da estimativa de um modelo MGARCH-DCC realizada para os três países fornecem evidências empíricas das diferenças existentes entre o pass-through da volatilidade do mercado internacional de petróleo para a economia doméstica. O estabelecimento artificial dos preços de refinaria pelo governo brasileiro levou a uma correlação menor em comparação à Alemanha e aos EUA - dois países onde o governo não intervém nos preços dos combustíveis. Uma combinação de política de preço dos derivados do petróleo livre e uma política fiscal flexível como na Alemanhã poderia trazer competitividade para o setor doméstico de combustíveis e ao mesmo tempo garantir um preço estável ao consumidor - um exemplo que deve ser considerado pelo governo brasileiro. O segundo capítulo vai um passo além, incluindo os setores de biocombustíveis na análise, a fim de verificar se existem diferenças nos mecanismos de transmissão de preços relacionados aos biocombustíveis nos três países estudados. Os resultados obtidos nos testes de cointegração e na estimativa de um modelo VEC mostram que, enquanto no Brasil e nos EUA os setores de etanol se caracterizam por uma relação estável entre as séries de preços examinadas, na Alemanha não se observa um vínculo tão forte e permanente - um resultado que pode ser atribuído às mudanças na política de biocombustíveis no país, bem como às características específicas de seus setores de biocombustíveis. O terceiro capítulo do estudo dá continuidade à análise, focando na situação do Brasil e nos efeitos hipotéticos de uma política de preços livres dos combustíveis. Uma simulação de preço livre para a gasolina no período entre 2007 e 2016 foi construído e as respostas hipotéticas do setor de etanol foram calculadas, usando as elasticidades da demanda obtidas pela estimação de um modelo VEC estrutural. Os resultados mostram que uma política mais liberal teria levado ao aumento no preço do etanol no estado de São Paulo, tornando a produção de etanol mais lucrativa do que o açúcar para os produtores de cana, o que teria sido benéfico para o setor - especialmente depois de 2011, quando ele entrou em uma grave crise. A conclusão final deste trabalho é de que se faz necessária uma reformulação da política de formação de preços praticada no Brasil, a fim de ajudar o etanol a recuperar sua competitividade como substituto a combustíveis fósseis e a se restabelecer na matriz energética do país. https://doi.org/10.11606/T.11.2017.tde-29092017-160029info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessengreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USPinstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USP2023-12-21T20:24:34Zoai:teses.usp.br:tde-29092017-160029Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://www.teses.usp.br/PUBhttp://www.teses.usp.br/cgi-bin/mtd2br.plvirginia@if.usp.br|| atendimento@aguia.usp.br||virginia@if.usp.bropendoar:27212023-12-22T13:30:14.435366Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.en.fl_str_mv Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
dc.title.alternative.pt.fl_str_mv Combustíveis e biocombustíveis no Brasil - comparação com países desenvolvidos e análise de uma política de preços livres dos combustíveis
title Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
spellingShingle Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
Nataliya Dimitrova Popova
title_short Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
title_full Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
title_fullStr Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
title_full_unstemmed Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
title_sort Fuel and biofuel sectors in Brazil - comparison with developed economies and analysis of hypothetical free fuel pricing policy
author Nataliya Dimitrova Popova
author_facet Nataliya Dimitrova Popova
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Joao Gomes Martines Filho
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Daniel Henrique Dario Capitani
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv Plinio Mario Nastari
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Nataliya Dimitrova Popova
contributor_str_mv Joao Gomes Martines Filho
Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi
Daniel Henrique Dario Capitani
Plinio Mario Nastari
description The recent trends in the international crude oil price have brought back the interest of researchers to the importance of the practiced by the government fuel pricing policy for the domestic economy, especially in the developing world. Brazil constitutes a particularly interesting case when it comes to the government participation in the domestic fuel sectors. The state-owned oil company Petrobras acts as a price-setter for all petroleum derivatives sold in the country. This policy, however, has had severe negative consequences for the Brazilian fuel sector and especially for the domestic ethanol industry. Thus, the main goal of this study is to provide a basis for the development of a reformed pricing policy, which is more suitable for the needs of the country and does not have severe negative impact on the domestic economy. For this purpose, this work is divided into three chapters that interrelate and contribute for the achieving of the objective. The first chapter focuses on a comparative analysis of the dynamic correlation between the domestic fuel prices and international crude oil in Brazil, Germany and the United States. The results of the performed MGARCH-DCC estimation for the three countries provide empirical evidence for the differences existing between the pass-through of volatility from international oil markets to the domestic economy. The artificially established by the government ex-refinery prices of petroleum derivatives in Brazil led to lower correlation in comparison to Germany and the U.S. - two countries where the government does not intervene in the formation of the prices of petroleum derivatives. The used combination of free fuel prices and flexible fiscal policy, as the case of Germany, can induce competitiveness in the domestic fuel sector and at the same time keep domestic prices stable - an example that should be considered by policy makers in Brazil. The second chapter goes one step further by including the biofuel sectors in the analysis in order to verify if there exist differences in the biofuel-related price transmission mechanisms in the three countries of interest. The obtained results of the performed cointegration tests and estimation of VECM show that while in Brazil and in the U.S. the ethanol sectors are characterized by a stable relationship between the examined price series, in Germany such a strong and permanent link is not observed - a result that can be attributed to the changes in the policy regarding biofuels in the country, as well as to the specific characteristics of its biofuel-related sectors. The third chapter of the study gives a continuation to the analysis by focusing on the situation in Brazil and the hypothetical effects of a free fuel pricing policy. A simulated free gasoline price for the period between 2007 and 2016 is constructed and the hypothetical responses of the ethanol sector are calculated, using the obtained by the estimation of a structural VEC model demand elasticities. The results show that such a change in the policy would have led to higher ethanol prices in the state of São Paulo, making it more profitable for sugarcane producers to engage in the production of biofuel instead of sugar, which would have been beneficial for the sector, especially after 2011 when it entered a severe crisis. The final conclusion of this work is that there is a need for reformulating the practiced fuel pricing policy in Brazil in order to help ethanol regain its previous competitiveness as a substitute for conventional fossil fuels and to reestablish itself in the country\'s energy matrix.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2017-05-23
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