Detalhes bibliográficos
| Autor(a) principal: |
Nataliya Dimitrova Popova |
| Data de Publicação: |
2017 |
| Tipo de documento: |
Tese
|
| Idioma: |
eng |
| Título da fonte: |
Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| Texto Completo: |
https://doi.org/10.11606/T.11.2017.tde-29092017-160029
|
Resumo: |
The recent trends in the international crude oil price have brought back the interest of researchers to the importance of the practiced by the government fuel pricing policy for the domestic economy, especially in the developing world. Brazil constitutes a particularly interesting case when it comes to the government participation in the domestic fuel sectors. The state-owned oil company Petrobras acts as a price-setter for all petroleum derivatives sold in the country. This policy, however, has had severe negative consequences for the Brazilian fuel sector and especially for the domestic ethanol industry. Thus, the main goal of this study is to provide a basis for the development of a reformed pricing policy, which is more suitable for the needs of the country and does not have severe negative impact on the domestic economy. For this purpose, this work is divided into three chapters that interrelate and contribute for the achieving of the objective. The first chapter focuses on a comparative analysis of the dynamic correlation between the domestic fuel prices and international crude oil in Brazil, Germany and the United States. The results of the performed MGARCH-DCC estimation for the three countries provide empirical evidence for the differences existing between the pass-through of volatility from international oil markets to the domestic economy. The artificially established by the government ex-refinery prices of petroleum derivatives in Brazil led to lower correlation in comparison to Germany and the U.S. - two countries where the government does not intervene in the formation of the prices of petroleum derivatives. The used combination of free fuel prices and flexible fiscal policy, as the case of Germany, can induce competitiveness in the domestic fuel sector and at the same time keep domestic prices stable - an example that should be considered by policy makers in Brazil. The second chapter goes one step further by including the biofuel sectors in the analysis in order to verify if there exist differences in the biofuel-related price transmission mechanisms in the three countries of interest. The obtained results of the performed cointegration tests and estimation of VECM show that while in Brazil and in the U.S. the ethanol sectors are characterized by a stable relationship between the examined price series, in Germany such a strong and permanent link is not observed - a result that can be attributed to the changes in the policy regarding biofuels in the country, as well as to the specific characteristics of its biofuel-related sectors. The third chapter of the study gives a continuation to the analysis by focusing on the situation in Brazil and the hypothetical effects of a free fuel pricing policy. A simulated free gasoline price for the period between 2007 and 2016 is constructed and the hypothetical responses of the ethanol sector are calculated, using the obtained by the estimation of a structural VEC model demand elasticities. The results show that such a change in the policy would have led to higher ethanol prices in the state of São Paulo, making it more profitable for sugarcane producers to engage in the production of biofuel instead of sugar, which would have been beneficial for the sector, especially after 2011 when it entered a severe crisis. The final conclusion of this work is that there is a need for reformulating the practiced fuel pricing policy in Brazil in order to help ethanol regain its previous competitiveness as a substitute for conventional fossil fuels and to reestablish itself in the country\'s energy matrix. |