AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/47932 |
Resumo: | The Brazilian Amazon (BAMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB) regions have been facing intense climate extremes since the beginning of 21st century. In BAMZ, these climate extremes can modify the Amazon forest and its essential role in the local and remote climate. This study evaluated whether the extreme rainfall events in the both regions will be more intense and frequent in the future due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. An adapted version of the RX5day index was applied to distinguish between different types of extreme rainfall cases in the ETA model output for the decade 2089-2099 compared to the 1980-1990 decade. The results have shown that although the total rainfall is expected to be reduced by at least 1/3 (DJF) in the case of rare events, this kind of extreme rainfall will contribute with a higher amount of rainfall and will occur more frequently in both areas by the end of the 21st century. Heavy and very heavy events decrease for both areas (total rainfall amount and frequency). Results suggest that stakeholders must be prepared to cope with the population’s need for assistance during floods and rainfall reduction and reinforces the need to adapt to worse climate extremes projections. |
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AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIOExtreme rainfall, Amazon, Brazilian Northeast, Climate Change, ETA modelThe Brazilian Amazon (BAMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB) regions have been facing intense climate extremes since the beginning of 21st century. In BAMZ, these climate extremes can modify the Amazon forest and its essential role in the local and remote climate. This study evaluated whether the extreme rainfall events in the both regions will be more intense and frequent in the future due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. An adapted version of the RX5day index was applied to distinguish between different types of extreme rainfall cases in the ETA model output for the decade 2089-2099 compared to the 1980-1990 decade. The results have shown that although the total rainfall is expected to be reduced by at least 1/3 (DJF) in the case of rare events, this kind of extreme rainfall will contribute with a higher amount of rainfall and will occur more frequently in both areas by the end of the 21st century. Heavy and very heavy events decrease for both areas (total rainfall amount and frequency). Results suggest that stakeholders must be prepared to cope with the population’s need for assistance during floods and rainfall reduction and reinforces the need to adapt to worse climate extremes projections.Universidade Federal do ParanáCAPES (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior)Fonseca, PaulaVeiga, José AugustoCorreia, FrancisChan, ChouLyra, André2017-08-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/4793210.5380/abclima.v20i0.47932Revista Brasileira de Climatologia; v. 20 (2017)2237-86421980-055X10.5380/abclima.v20i0reponame:Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online)instname:ABClimainstacron:ABCLIMAenghttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/47932/32630Direitos autorais 2017 Revista Brasileira de Climatologiainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2017-08-02T11:46:58Zoai:revistas.ufpr.br:article/47932Revistahttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/indexPUBhttps://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/oaiegalvani@usp.br || rbclima2014@gmail.com2237-86421980-055Xopendoar:2017-08-02T11:46:58Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) - ABClimafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO |
title |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO |
spellingShingle |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO Fonseca, Paula Extreme rainfall, Amazon, Brazilian Northeast, Climate Change, ETA model |
title_short |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO |
title_full |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO |
title_fullStr |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO |
title_full_unstemmed |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO |
title_sort |
AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL EXTREMES IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR BEHAVIORS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE BASED ON A1B SCENARIO |
author |
Fonseca, Paula |
author_facet |
Fonseca, Paula Veiga, José Augusto Correia, Francis Chan, Chou Lyra, André |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Veiga, José Augusto Correia, Francis Chan, Chou Lyra, André |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
CAPES (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior) |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Fonseca, Paula Veiga, José Augusto Correia, Francis Chan, Chou Lyra, André |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Extreme rainfall, Amazon, Brazilian Northeast, Climate Change, ETA model |
topic |
Extreme rainfall, Amazon, Brazilian Northeast, Climate Change, ETA model |
description |
The Brazilian Amazon (BAMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB) regions have been facing intense climate extremes since the beginning of 21st century. In BAMZ, these climate extremes can modify the Amazon forest and its essential role in the local and remote climate. This study evaluated whether the extreme rainfall events in the both regions will be more intense and frequent in the future due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. An adapted version of the RX5day index was applied to distinguish between different types of extreme rainfall cases in the ETA model output for the decade 2089-2099 compared to the 1980-1990 decade. The results have shown that although the total rainfall is expected to be reduced by at least 1/3 (DJF) in the case of rare events, this kind of extreme rainfall will contribute with a higher amount of rainfall and will occur more frequently in both areas by the end of the 21st century. Heavy and very heavy events decrease for both areas (total rainfall amount and frequency). Results suggest that stakeholders must be prepared to cope with the population’s need for assistance during floods and rainfall reduction and reinforces the need to adapt to worse climate extremes projections. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-08-01 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
|
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/47932 10.5380/abclima.v20i0.47932 |
url |
https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/47932 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5380/abclima.v20i0.47932 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/47932/32630 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Direitos autorais 2017 Revista Brasileira de Climatologia info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Direitos autorais 2017 Revista Brasileira de Climatologia |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv |
|
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Paraná |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Paraná |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia; v. 20 (2017) 2237-8642 1980-055X 10.5380/abclima.v20i0 reponame:Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) instname:ABClima instacron:ABCLIMA |
instname_str |
ABClima |
instacron_str |
ABCLIMA |
institution |
ABCLIMA |
reponame_str |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) |
collection |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Climatologia (Online) - ABClima |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
egalvani@usp.br || rbclima2014@gmail.com |
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1754839544043143168 |