Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Magário,M.B.
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Santos,R.R. dos, Teixeira,L.A., Tiezzi,D.G., Pimentel,F.F., Carrara,H.H.A., Andrade,J.M. de, Reis,F.J. Candido dos
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2022000100668
Resumo: PREDICT is a tool designed to estimate the benefits of adjuvant therapy and the overall survival of women with early breast cancer. The model uses clinical, histological, and immunohistochemical variables. This study aimed to evaluate the model's performance in a Brazilian population. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the PREDICT model to estimate overall survival (OS) in five and ten years of follow-up in a cohort of 873 women with early breast cancer diagnosed from January 2001 to December 2016. A total of 743 patients had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and 130 had ER-negative tumors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for discrimination was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66–0.78) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.61–0.72) at ten years for women with ER-positive tumors. The AUC was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.62–0.81) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.54–0.77) at ten years for women with ER-negative tumors. The predicted survival in ER-positive tumors was 91.0% (95%CI: 90.2–91.6%) at five years and 79.3% (95%CI: 77.7–81.0%) at ten years, and the observed survival 90.7% (95%CI: 88.6–92.9%) and 77.2% (95%CI: 73.4–81.4%), respectively. The predicted survival in ER-negative tumors was 84.5% (95%CI: 82.5–86.6%) at five years and 75.0% (95%CI: 71.6–78.5%) at ten years, and the observed survival 76.3% (95%CI: 69.1–84.3%) and 67.9% (95%CI: 58.6–78.6%), respectively. In conclusion, PREDICT was accurate to estimate OS in women with ER-positive tumors and overestimated the OS in women with ER-negative tumors.
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spelling Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in BrazilBreast cancerPrognosis modelSurvivalPREDICTPREDICT is a tool designed to estimate the benefits of adjuvant therapy and the overall survival of women with early breast cancer. The model uses clinical, histological, and immunohistochemical variables. This study aimed to evaluate the model's performance in a Brazilian population. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the PREDICT model to estimate overall survival (OS) in five and ten years of follow-up in a cohort of 873 women with early breast cancer diagnosed from January 2001 to December 2016. A total of 743 patients had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and 130 had ER-negative tumors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for discrimination was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66–0.78) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.61–0.72) at ten years for women with ER-positive tumors. The AUC was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.62–0.81) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.54–0.77) at ten years for women with ER-negative tumors. The predicted survival in ER-positive tumors was 91.0% (95%CI: 90.2–91.6%) at five years and 79.3% (95%CI: 77.7–81.0%) at ten years, and the observed survival 90.7% (95%CI: 88.6–92.9%) and 77.2% (95%CI: 73.4–81.4%), respectively. The predicted survival in ER-negative tumors was 84.5% (95%CI: 82.5–86.6%) at five years and 75.0% (95%CI: 71.6–78.5%) at ten years, and the observed survival 76.3% (95%CI: 69.1–84.3%) and 67.9% (95%CI: 58.6–78.6%), respectively. In conclusion, PREDICT was accurate to estimate OS in women with ER-positive tumors and overestimated the OS in women with ER-negative tumors.Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2022000100668Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research v.55 2022reponame:Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Researchinstname:Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica (ABDC)instacron:ABDC10.1590/1414-431x2022e12109info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMagário,M.B.Santos,R.R. dosTeixeira,L.A.Tiezzi,D.G.Pimentel,F.F.Carrara,H.H.A.Andrade,J.M. deReis,F.J. Candido doseng2022-10-26T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0100-879X2022000100668Revistahttps://www.bjournal.org/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpbjournal@terra.com.br||bjournal@terra.com.br1414-431X0100-879Xopendoar:2022-10-26T00:00Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research - Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica (ABDC)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
title Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
spellingShingle Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
Magário,M.B.
Breast cancer
Prognosis model
Survival
PREDICT
title_short Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
title_full Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
title_fullStr Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
title_sort Validation of the online PREDICT tool in a cohort of early breast cancer in Brazil
author Magário,M.B.
author_facet Magário,M.B.
Santos,R.R. dos
Teixeira,L.A.
Tiezzi,D.G.
Pimentel,F.F.
Carrara,H.H.A.
Andrade,J.M. de
Reis,F.J. Candido dos
author_role author
author2 Santos,R.R. dos
Teixeira,L.A.
Tiezzi,D.G.
Pimentel,F.F.
Carrara,H.H.A.
Andrade,J.M. de
Reis,F.J. Candido dos
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Magário,M.B.
Santos,R.R. dos
Teixeira,L.A.
Tiezzi,D.G.
Pimentel,F.F.
Carrara,H.H.A.
Andrade,J.M. de
Reis,F.J. Candido dos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Breast cancer
Prognosis model
Survival
PREDICT
topic Breast cancer
Prognosis model
Survival
PREDICT
description PREDICT is a tool designed to estimate the benefits of adjuvant therapy and the overall survival of women with early breast cancer. The model uses clinical, histological, and immunohistochemical variables. This study aimed to evaluate the model's performance in a Brazilian population. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the PREDICT model to estimate overall survival (OS) in five and ten years of follow-up in a cohort of 873 women with early breast cancer diagnosed from January 2001 to December 2016. A total of 743 patients had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and 130 had ER-negative tumors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for discrimination was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66–0.78) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.61–0.72) at ten years for women with ER-positive tumors. The AUC was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.62–0.81) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.54–0.77) at ten years for women with ER-negative tumors. The predicted survival in ER-positive tumors was 91.0% (95%CI: 90.2–91.6%) at five years and 79.3% (95%CI: 77.7–81.0%) at ten years, and the observed survival 90.7% (95%CI: 88.6–92.9%) and 77.2% (95%CI: 73.4–81.4%), respectively. The predicted survival in ER-negative tumors was 84.5% (95%CI: 82.5–86.6%) at five years and 75.0% (95%CI: 71.6–78.5%) at ten years, and the observed survival 76.3% (95%CI: 69.1–84.3%) and 67.9% (95%CI: 58.6–78.6%), respectively. In conclusion, PREDICT was accurate to estimate OS in women with ER-positive tumors and overestimated the OS in women with ER-negative tumors.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2022000100668
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2022000100668
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/1414-431x2022e12109
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research v.55 2022
reponame:Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research
instname:Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica (ABDC)
instacron:ABDC
instname_str Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica (ABDC)
instacron_str ABDC
institution ABDC
reponame_str Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research
collection Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research
repository.name.fl_str_mv Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research - Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica (ABDC)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv bjournal@terra.com.br||bjournal@terra.com.br
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